Five games that could define rest of Bucks season

Milwaukee remains in the fight for a play-in spot with a home-heavy schedule

Feb 12, 2026; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA;Milwaukee Bucks guard/forward Kevin Porter Jr. (7) dunks against the Oklahoma City Thunder during the first half at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images | Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

The Milwaukee Bucks were so unexpectedly effective prior to the All-Star break that talk of reaching the playoffs isn’t so far-fetched. 

Mind you, it’s a longshot and has been priced as such. DraftKings lists the Bucks as +1100 (11-to-1) to reach the playoffs and has them at 5-to-1 (+500) to reach the play-in round.

However, since Giannis Antetokounmpo is likely to return over the next week or two and nearly 30 games remain, time is still somewhat an ally of the Bucks if they want to compete in the postseason. Entering Friday’s game in New Orleans, Milwaukee has won five of six and will play nine of its 10 games at home after its date at the Pelicans.

With the Charlotte Hornets, Atlanta Hawks and Chicago Bulls ahead of the Bucks in the race for spots No. 9 and 10, there’s work to be done. Here are the five top games on the slate worth keeping tabs on.

1. Running with the Bulls: March 1

Feb 3, 2026; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Chicago Bulls forward/center Jalen Smith (25) puts up a shot against Milwaukee Bucks guard Ryan Rollins (13) and forward Myles Turner (3) in the second half at Fiserv Forum. Mandatory Credit: Michael McLoone-Imagn Images | Michael McLoone-Imagn Images

Antetokounmpo should be back, so the lone road game the Bucks will play between this weekend and March 10 to open the third month of 2026 will do a lot for their chances of chasing down a play-in spot. Milwaukee has defeated Chicago on Nov. 7 (126-110), Dec. 27 (112-103) and Feb. 3 (131-115), so it already owns the tiebreaker and can wrap up a season sweep that would give it a huge advantage down the stretch.

2. Soaring with the Hawks: March 14

Jan 19, 2026; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Hawks forward Jalen Johnson (1) looks for a play against Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) during the fourth quarter at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Godfree-Imagn Images | Jordan Godfree-Imagn Images

Atlanta may have moved Trae Young, but the team that remains in place is sound defensively and formidable in its own right with first-time All-Star Jalen Johnson leading the way. The Hawks come through Fiserv Forum on March 4, so this contest in the middle of the month will build on that first meeting in helping determine which team will control their destiny down the stretch. The Bucks won the first matchup at State Farm Arena 112-110, so the opportunity to claim the tiebreaker in this season series will also ride on what goes down in March’s meetings.

3. Feeling the Heat: March 12

Nov 26, 2025; Miami, Florida, USA; Milwaukee Bucks guard Ryan Rollins (13) defends Miami Heat forward Jaime Jaquez Jr. (11) during the second half of an NBA Cup game at Kaseya Center. Mandatory Credit: Rhona Wise-Imagn Images | Rhona Wise-Imagn Images

Miami was viewed as a potential destination for Antetokounmpo and still may be where the “Greek Freak” ends up, so this visit to South Florida on a Thursday night could see him cheered by astute Heat fans. This will be the second game between these teams inside 16 days since Bam Adebayo and friends will come through on Feb. 24 in the second game on that lengthy slate at home that opens against the Raptors on Sunday. Miami exits the break as the No. 8 seed and won the only matchup between the teams to date at Kaseya Center 106-103 on Nov. 26 in a game that didn’t feature Antetokounmpo. 

4. Fooling with KD in Houston: April 1

Nov 9, 2025; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Houston Rockets forward Kevin Durant (7) is surrounded by Milwaukee Bucks guard Ryan Rollins (13) and Milwaukee Bucks guard Gary Trent Jr. (5) in the second half at Fiserv Forum. Mandatory Credit: Michael McLoone-Imagn Images | Michael McLoone-Imagn Images

The Rockets are vying for a top-four seed in the Western Conference since they’re unlikely to make up ground to catch the Spurs for the Southwest Division title, so they’ll be invested when the Bucks come into H-town to open April. Kevin Durant scored 31 points in a 122-115 win on Nov. 9, overcoming a 37-point game from Giannis. The Bucks fell to 6-4 at the time, but would go on a seven-game losing streak before the month was up to dig the massive hole in which  they’re currently stuck.

5. Welcoming in cousins from Boston: April 3

Nov 10, 2024; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum (0) takes a shot against Milwaukee Bucks guard AJ Green (20) in the fourth quarter at Fiserv Forum. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-Imagn Images | Benny Sieu-Imagn Images

The Celtics may have Jayson Tatum back in the fold when they roll through Milwaukee for the second time post-break. The Bucks host Boston on March 2 and just after the final month of the regular season begins, so hopefully this matchup between the Eastern Conference’s last two NBA champions will feature both teams at full strength. Milwaukee defeated the C’s  116-101 on Dec. 11 behind big games from Kyle Kuzma and Bobby Portis, but lost 107-79 in an embarrassing performance at TD Garden on Feb. 1.

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