Giannis returning after All-Star break would lift Bucks' play-in hopes

Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo is unlikely to aid tanking if there's a chance his team can make the playoffs.

Feb 6, 2026; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) warms up before game against the Indiana Pacers at Fiserv Forum. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-Imagn Images | Benny Sieu-Imagn Images

Now that Giannis Antetokounmpo is going to be with the Milwaukee Bucks through at least July, you shouldn’t expect to see him do much modeling of his off-the-floor fashion.

Antentokounmpo has missed 10-to-20 games in every season since playing 75 games since 2017-18, but he’s played in at least 61 regular season games his entire career. 

That won’t happen this season, but if Antetokounmpo comes back immediately after the All-Star break and plays every game, he’ll get to 60. 

REPORT: Giannis Antetokounmpo is expected to be back after the All-Star break 👀

“Antetokounmpo could be aiming to come back on the shorter end of his projected window: Four weeks from his initial injury would be Feb. 20, the team's first game following the All-Star break.”… pic.twitter.com/OkqnLH9yBv

— CourtSideHeat (@CourtSideHeat) February 9, 2026

Antetokounmpo, who diagnosed his own injury suffered in the final minute of a Jan. 23 loss to Denver, was expected to miss four-to-six weeks with his right calf strain. If he deems himself good to go for the Feb. 20 visit to New Orleans, who is going to keep him off the floor? Milwaukee follows up that Pelicans game with a homestand consisting of games against the Raptors, Heat, Cavs and Knicks that could end its season if it goes poorly.

We’re not writing fan fiction here, so the odds of him playing every game post-break are miniscule. The Bucks will play three back-to-backs between Feb. 24-March 8 and it would be wildly irresponsible for the “Greek Freak” to play in both legs. 

Following that last one, Milwaukee has just one back-to-back the rest of the way. It’s therefore very possible that if Antetokounmpo stays healthy, he’ll get into at least 55 contests. Will that be enough to get the Bucks into the play-in? 

Three consecutive wins at home before losing the first of two against the Magic in Orlando have made the unlikely dream a possibility, but it complicates matters that the teams situated in spots No. 9 and 10 both look much improved and got stronger at the trade deadline. 

Feb 5, 2026; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Hawks center Jock Landale (31) reacts after a basket against the Utah Jazz in the fourth quarter at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

The Atlanta Hawks and Charlotte Hornets were a combined 15-3 over the last nine games they’ve played entering Tuesday’s action, and one of those losses was a given since they played one another on Saturday. The Hawks added wing Jonathan Kuminga, center Jock Landale, shooter Buddy Hield and experienced guard Gabe Vincent. 

Ex-Bulls guard Coby White, who has averaged 19.5 points over the past three seasons, will now be the Hornets’ sixth man behind LaMelo Ball and Kon Knueppel. 

Fortunately, Milwaukee won the season series 2-1 to hold any potential tie-breaker and won’t see the Hornets again this regular season. They’ll face Atlanta twice and can chase down Miami or Orlando should the bottom fall out for the current Southeast Division frontrunners, neither of which made a major splash at the trade deadline.

Cam Thomas on being teammates with Giannis Antetokounmpo

“Just having that dominant force in the paint and just having somebody that can also attract two people. Having that gravity, I think, could do wonders for me. And then, just me being a scorer, me being in Brooklyn… pic.twitter.com/ZEvldrleip

— Fullcourtpass (@Fullcourtpass) February 9, 2026

The Bucks’ big splash beyond not moving Giannis came Sunday courtesy of the buyout market, coming to terms with free agent guard Cam Thomas. Normally, you wouldn’t get excited over a player cut by the Brooklyn Nets, but Thomas is an elite scorer who should be able to add a spark off the bench.

Currently, Milwaukee is +1000 (10/1) to make the play-in and 22-to-1 to reach the playoffs according to DraftKings, so oddsmakers are telling you they expect the Bucks to remain on the outside looking in. 

Giannis pregame sideline sprints in Orlando (out tonight) pic.twitter.com/UyJhWO0mlx

— Ryan Kaminski NBA (@beyondtheRK) February 9, 2026

If Antetokounmpo makes it back and doesn’t suffer another injury, those odds are awfully tempting. From Feb. 22-March 10, Milwaukee will play nine of 10 at Fiserv Forum, but only one of those games will be played against a team that currently wouldn’t make the playoffs. 

The next few weeks are make-or-break for the Bucks due to the hole their in, but with Giannis still on the roster, Thomas on board and the injury report as light as it’s been all season, the Bucks still have a realistic chance to play meaningful games in April.