Think again before predicting Bucks GM Jon Horst’s 2026 NBA Draft pick

Milwaukee Bucks GM Jon Horst has a reputation for being both a bad drafter and one who targets raw prospects when he does have a pick to use. It’s hard to argue with the first charge when looking at Horst’s full resume, but I don’t think penciling Horst in to select a raw teenager like Nate Ament in the 2026 NBA Draft is the correct methodology.

Horst has certainly skewed toward project picks in recent years, burning two top-35 picks on AJ Johnson and Tyler Smith in 2024 and then selecting gangly teenager Bogoljub Markovic last summer. All of those players were young and none of them seemed ready to step into immediate NBA roles. So is this Horst’s preferred draft strategy?

Not really, based on the full history of his picks. There IS a predictability to how Horst drafts, but it’s not going for the same kind of prospect each year. Instead, considering who the coach of the Bucks is sheds major insight on how Horst will use his draft picks.

Horst was hired as Bucks general manager on June 16, 2017, less than a week before the 2017 NBA Draft. Let’s ignore his selection of D.J. Wilson, as it occurred so soon after his promotion and in the last offseason with Jason Kidd in place as head coach of the Bucks.

Skipping ahead of the summer of 2018, Horst hired Mike Budenholzer to be Milwaukee’s new head coach to get the Bucks over the hump of the first round, something the Bucks hadn’t done since 2001. From 2018 to 2022, Horst was picking knowing Budenholzer was his coach, and that key veterans including Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton were in place.

Here are the players the Bucks took in those drafts: Donte DiVincenzo, Jordan Nwora, Sam Merrill, Sandro Mamukelashvili, Georgios Kalaitzakis, and MarJon Beauchamp. All of those players were already in their 20s, with an average age of 22 years old between the six picks. At least the first three of them were also strong shooting prospects, hitting 40% in their most recent NCAA season.

That is the exact opposite profile of Horst’s more recent selections, and the reasoning makes sense. Budenholzer was hired to win and implemented a system that relied on extensive spacing around Giannis, so Horst picked experienced players who could jump in and space the floor immediately.

Budenholzer was then fired in 2023 following the Bucks’ disastrous loss to the Miami Heat in the first round, and Adrian Griffin was hired to replace him in late May. Griffin, coming from the Toronto Raptors, wanted to bring a ferocious, aggressive defensive approach to Milwaukee.

While he didn’t make it through his only Bucks season, Horst did draft with Griffin’s philosophy in mind and selected Andre Jackson Jr. and Chris Livingston in the second round of the 2023 NBA Draft. Livingston is certainly a project but was selected at the bottom of the draft, and Jackson Jr. was not a blank slate. Fresh off a title with UConn, Jackson Jr. was 21 years old and had three years of NCAA experience. His incredible athleticism fit nicely within the aggressive defense Griffin intended to run in Milwaukee.

The last coach's influence

This brings us to the Doc Rivers era in Milwaukee, when Horst went all-in on project picks across two drafts. The reasoning here is unclear, and somewhat unknowable. Are those the types of players Rivers was excited about, or was Horst eager to hit a home run with Rivers uninterested in the draft, or was Rivers so set on playing veterans anyway that Horst took long-view picks?

It’s impossible to say for sure (unless Rivers discusses the matter on a Bill Simmons podcast spot, which is actually imminently possible) but regardless the Rivers era in Milwaukee brought disaster on the court and on draft night.

Rivers is now out, and Horst and Bucks ownership pushed hard to hire Taylor Jenkins to take over. Based on Horst’s chameleon-like draft record depending on who Milwaukee’s coach is and what their vision for the Bucks is, Jenkins figures to be an integral figure in determining the Bucks draft approach.

Memphis found value all over the board and in various age ranges with Jenkins in the head coach seat, and certainly didn’t shy away from older players. From Zach Edey in the lottery (close to Milwaukee’s own 10th spot this year) to Desmond Bane at the end of the first round to Jaylen Wells in the second, the Grizzlies hit on multiple players with multiple NCAA seasons under their belts.

Of course, the Grizz also snatched 19-year-old Ja Morant in the top five and grabbed teenager GG Jackson in the second round, and reached for one-and-done forward Zaire Williams at 10 overall. Again, it’s impossible to fully know how much input or say Jenkins had in these picks, but it’s certainly fair to pencil in some level of input given the outsized importance a head coach has on making any draft pick succeed in the NBA.

Ja Morant and Taylor Jenkins — Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Between the lack of premium picks generally (this is Milwaukee’s first lottery pick since 2016) and variance depending on head coach, it feels incorrect to pencil in a project player for the Bucks at the 10th overall pick. Maybe they go that direction, but this pick is more likely to be the first data point on the kind of player Horst feels will succeed under Taylor Jenkins than another one in a line of his own philosophy when it comes to the draft.

The good news is there’s nowhere to go but up from Milwaukee’s recent draft record at least.

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