Chicago Bulls Draft Lottery: What Are Their Odds At Every Pick?

Sunday's NBA Draft Lottery has the potential to be one of the most influential in Chicago Bulls history.

As dramatic as that may sound, the stakes have become that high over the last month. Ownership finally decided to swallow their pride and move on from the dysfunctional brain trust of Arturas Karnisovas and Marc Eversely. The decision came in the wake of a complete roster teardown at the trade deadline, leaving the organization with Josh Giddey and Matas Buzelis as its top two players.

In other words, new executive vice president of basketball operations Bryson Graham has taken over a very clean slate. While this is certainly better than inheriting a mess, it also means that he will be challenged with building from the ground up. We all know how long and painful this process can be in the NBA, which is why Sunday could change everything.

One of the deepest draft classes in years, whichever teams land in the Top 4 will have a shot at a true franchise-altering talent. AJ Dybantsa (BYU), Darryn Peterson (Kansas), Cameron Boozer (Duke), and Caleb Wilson (UNC) are all viewed as star-level prospects who can contribute in a meaningful way right off the bat. Is it guaranteed that each will reach their high expectations? Of course not. But a draft class rarely features this kind of upside past the No. 1 slot.

This is why any jump up the leaderboard would be considered a massive win for a Bulls team starting fresh. Graham would immediately have a franchise centerpiece to build around, possibly putting the organization on a faster track toward contention. To be sure, it's not out of the question that he could end up finding this perfect player at No. 9 or even No. 15. We've seen it happen before. But whoever is selected at that spot isn't going to be viewed as that fundamental building block right off the bat. This player reaching that potential would be far more of a pleasant surprise.

So, what are the chances the Bulls actually end up being blessed by the basketball gods? Let's briefly go over their odds of landing at each pick before the pick day!

Chicago Bulls Lottery Odds By Pick

May 12, 2025; Chicago, Illinois, US; Representitives of the NBA teams walk onto the stage during the 2025 NBA Draft Lottery at McCormick Place. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images | David Banks-Imagn Images

To the Chicago Bulls' credit, they did the right thing on the final day of the regular season. By losing to the Dallas Mavericks, they avoided a coin flip with the Milwaukee Bucks that could have dropped them a spot in the lottery standings. We all remember how impactful these coin flips can be, as they lost the No. 11 spot to the Mavericks last season. Dallas would go on to win the Cooper Flagg sweepstakes. Sorry, that probably should have come with a trigger warning.

Clinching sole possession of the No. 9 spot means the Bulls earned a 20.3 percent chance to jump into the Top 4. If they had lost the coin flip, this number would have sat at 13.9. Now, it's important to remember that the lottery is only held for the first four spots. This means the Bulls can ONLY jump into the Top 4, as opposed to having a shot at No. 5-8. However, they can still fall a few spots depending on whether teams behind them are lucky enough to jump the line.

Here is the Bulls' pick-by-pick breakdown:

No. 1 – 4.50%
No. 2 – 4.83%
No. 3 – 5.23%
No. 4 – 5.71%
No. 5 – 0%
No. 6 – 0%
No. 7 – 0%
No. 8 – 0%
No. 9 – 50.75%
No. 10 – 25.88%
No. 11 – 3.01%
No. 12 – 0.09%
No. 13 – <0.01%
No. 14 – 0%

Obviously, the most likely scenario is that Chicago remains at No. 9. While they would certainly be bummed not to climb the order, this would still put them in a pretty solid position. Brayden Burries, Mikel Brown Jr., and Labaron Philon Jr. are three fascinating guards who could be available. Aday Mara would also likely be tied to Chicago at both No. 9 and No. 15, as the seven-foot big man could fill a big hole in the frontcourt.

Nevertheless, if the Hawks and Mavericks have reminded us of anything over the last couple of years, it's that anything can happen on lottery day! Heck, the Bulls had only a 1.7 percent shot going into the 2008 lottery, and we all know how that ended. So ... put that ping pong ball under your pillow, cross every finger, and maybe throw on a green St. Patrick's Day Derrick Rose jersey. You never know when luck might strike.

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