Are the Chicago Bulls About to Hurt Their Lottery Odds for No Good Reason?

The Chicago Bulls continue to play a very dangerous game.

Finishing their road trip with two surprise victories, the Bulls briefly saw their lottery odds shrink last week. The team moved ahead of the Milwaukee Bucks in the East standings after an OT win over the Golden State Warriors. This dropped their chance at a Top 4 pick from 20.3 percent to 13.9 percent.

To be clear, losing both games against the LA teams did move Chicago back to the ninth-worst record in the NBA. But the odds the Bulls and Bucks swap places again feel pretty dang high. Milwaukee has lost four in a row despite the return of Giannis Antetokounmpo. Meanwhile, Chicago has repeatedly insisted that lottery odds are not part of the current equation.

In fact, Billy Donovan did this again following the team's second defeat in Los Angeles. The head coach told the Chicago Sun-Times that they may only begin to rest players and look toward the future when they are officially eliminated from postseason contention:

“If we get to a place where we are mathematically out of anything as it relates to postseason and there are guys that are dealing with some ailments or have challenges health-wise, could they say, ‘Hey, let’s get these guys right first.’ I don’t know," Donovan told the Sun-Times' Joe Cowley. "Everything I got from them up to this point and time is to continue to put our best foot forward.”

As I always like to say, no one can necessarily blame the coaching staff and players for competing. It's quite literally what they are paid to do. Fans also shouldn't be as frustrated when they see Josh Giddey stringing together triple-doubles and Matas Buzelis posting career-highs. Those two remain key building blocks, and this is a great time for them to assume more responsibility and prove their worth.

Matas Buzelis of the Chicago Bulls — Mar 13, 2026; Inglewood, California, USA; Chicago Bulls forward Matas Buzelis (14) looks to slam the ball in frustration during the second half against the Los Angeles Clippers at Intuit Dome. Mandatory Credit: William Liang-Imagn Images | William Liang-Imagn Images

At the same time, the front office is paid to think about what is in the best long-term interest of the franchise. They are the ones who can send down an order to pump the brakes. And now would be the perfect time to do just that.

The Bulls will face the Memphis Grizzlies twice over the final few weeks of the regular season, and their first battle is on Monday night. Once just 2.5 games ahead of the Grizzlies for the 8th-best lottery odds, the Bulls' recent wins fluffed up their cushion to 3.5. If they want any chance at increasing their odds – as opposed to shrinking them with a Milwaukee swap – no two games are more important the rest of the way.

Also, as far as the mathematics go, someone should really recommend the Bulls take a peek at Basketball Reference's Probabilities Report. Sitting in 12th, they currently give the Bulls a ZERO percent chance at moving into the final Play-In spot. Chicago is a whole 6.5 games back from the Charlotte Hornets, who just returned to .500 and hold a 7-3 record in their last ten games.

By the way, the Bucks are only given a 0.1 percent chance at stealing the No. 10 seed right now after their latest four-game skid. So even if the Bulls were able to swap spots with them in the coming days, why would their odds look any better? The answer is they wouldn't!

Think about it this way: If the Hornets were to go .500 the rest of the way, the Bulls would have to go 15-0 to finish with a better record. They can't end with the same win count because the Hornets hold the tiebreaker advantage thanks to winning the regular-season series. Even if the Hornets ended up crumbling and going something like 2-12, and the Bulls would still have to win 10 of their last 15! In what world is that happening? This group has won a mere three games since February 1.

At the end of the day, Chicago is only doing itself a disservice by choosing to ignore the lottery odds until they are officially eliminated. Heck, wasn't the whole point of this trade deadline to get out of the middle? Didn't the front office say publicly that the Play-In was not the goal? If so, why are they not sending that same message to Donovan's staff?

The postseason dream is dead. At some point, leadership needs to step in and ensure everyone is prioritizing the future. If they don't, there is a very good chance the Bulls hurt their lottery odds for no good reason at all.

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