Lottery Odds to Portland Pick – A Lot is On the Line for the Chicago Bulls Tonight

In only a matter of hours, the 2025-26 Chicago Bulls season will have officially come to an end. And the crowd goes wild!

What has largely been another disastrous year has at least ended with legitimate change. CEO Michael Reinsdorf surprised fans by letting go of his top two front office officials earlier this week. A search for the organization's next braintrust is now a full go, and it can officially begin in earnest the moment the buzzer sounds in Dallas on Sunday evening.

Speaking of which, while the storylines will keep coming for the Bulls over the next couple of weeks, we shouldn't ignore this evening's regular-season finale. The game itself may feel like it doesn't hold much weight, especially with 12 players listed on the team's current injury report. However, there is actually quite a lot on the line for the Bulls as they take the floor tonight. Let's quickly go over it all!

What If the Chicago Bulls Win and the Milwaukee Bucks Lose?

Thanks to Arturas Karnisovas and Marc Eversley not pulling the plug earlier, the Chicago Bulls remain in a heated tank race with the Milwaukee Bucks. The two teams were tied for the 9th-best lottery odds as recently as Friday night. Chicago then got lucky, as Milwaukee took down the Brooklyn Nets on their home court. Meanwhile, the Bulls were blown out by the Orlando Magic, thus gaining a 1.0 game cushion for a better chance at a Top 4 pick.

Nevertheless, a tie is still very much on the table this evening. If the Bulls pull off a victory over the 25-win Mavericks and the Bucks drop one to the Philadelphia 76ers, they will each end 2025-26 with a record of 32-50. What does this mean? Well, the Bulls would have relied on a coin flip for the second season in a row.

Lose the coin flip, and the Bulls' lottery odds would sit at a 13.9 percent chance at a Top 4 pick and a 3.0 percent chance at No. 1 overall. Win the coin clip, and the Bulls have a 20.3 percent shot at Top 4 and a 4.5 percent chance at the top slot.

While some may argue that the difference of 6.4 percentage points doesn't matter, last season says otherwise. The Bulls lost the coin flip to the Mavericks and thus lost the No. 11 spot in the lottery. We both know who went on to win the Cooper Flagg sweepstakes!

What If There is Any Other Outcome?

The good news for the Bulls is that Friday's results mean that any other outcome than what's stated above will give them better odds. In other words, it doesn't matter if both teams win, both teams lose, or the Bulls lose and the Bucks win. Any of those results would mean Chicago earns the 20.4 percent chance at a jump up the standings.

For what it's worth, the Bucks will tip off against the 76ers at 5:00 p.m. CT tonight. This means the Bulls should know what they need to do by the time the ball is tipped in Dallas.

What is Going on With the Portland Trail Blazers?

Let's not forget that the Chicago Bulls also must keep an eye on the Portland Trail Blazers this evening. Currently the owners of a lottery-protected first-round pick, the organization is crossing its fingers that the Western Conference franchise will earn its first postseason berth since the 2020-21 season.

As things currently stand, they are 41-40 and sitting just outside the lottery picture. Unfortunately, though, this wouldn't guarantee the Bulls get the No. 15 pick in the draft if the season ended today. The Play-In Tournament will have to flesh itself out before we have an answer, as Portland losing would mean they are placed back into the lottery and keep their pick.

Having said that, a win tonight for the Trail Blazers can significantly increase their chances of making the playoffs. They are tied right now with the Los Angeles Clippers, but hold the edge for the 8th spot in the West standings because of their better conference record. The only way they can lose that spot is if they manage to drop this evening's game against the Kings while the Clippers pull off a win over the Golden State Warriors. Any other outcome – thanks, in part, to the tiebreaker advantage – would give Portland the higher seed.

Now, do the Trail Blazers still have to make it through the Play-In? Of course. But securing the 8th seed means they get two chances to earn a playoff series. Beat the Phoenix Suns, and you're the 7th seed. Lose to the Phoenix Suns, and you have a chance to play either the Clippers or Warriors for the 8th seed.

Conversely, dropping to the 9th spot this evening would mean they have to beat the Warriors before beating the loss of Suns-Clippers to clinch a playoff berth. The only slight advantage they would have is that their first game would be in front of their home crowd.

Portland and Sacramento will tip-off at 7:30 p.m. CT, which will be the same time Chicago gets going against Dallas.

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