Jayson Tatum Injury Return Could Be Similar Timeline to Miami Heat Player

The Boston Celtics are 15-9 during the 2025-26 season despite Jayson Tatum's absence, caused by an Achilles tendon rupture during the team's Eastern Conference Semifinals elimination at the hands of the New York Knicks this past May.

Their success could soon be because Tatum was able to make a swift recovery from an injury previously thought to keep the former No. 3 overall pick out for the entire campaign, though.

Bill Simmons believes Tatum could have a similar timeline to Miami Heat guard Dru Smith, who was already back playing 10 months after his tear last December. Simmons predicts with 100% certainty that Tatum will be back this season based on what he's heard from sources around Boston.

Simmons also urged the team to change the plan Brad Stevens put into place this past offseason to tank, following his mass trading that resulted in a bare-bones roster surrounding Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, Payton Pritchard, Sam Hauser, and Anfernee Simons; one built by mostly minimum contract players and recent draft picks.

“Smith’s already playing with the same injury. These could be eight, nine month (recoveries) … from everything I’ve heard … (Tatum) has been relentless and (a) maniac, and passed every check point. He’s done everything possible to come back as soon as possible … and they’re understandably being careful, but at some point, it’s like, if he’s ready to play, let’s play him," Simmons said of Tatum.

“What are we waiting for? We might be like a five- or a six-seed. … I feel more confident than ever, with the way this team has responded, that he’s gonna be back.”

KD's Post-Achilles Tear Trajectory Offers Hope For Jayson Tatum

Smith stands at six-foot-two and around 200 lbs. Needless to say, his frame isn't the best comparison for Tatum as it pertains to what a return could look like. However, the combo forward with the most infamous Achilles tear in NBA history, Kevin Durant, is a good example.

Durant was 30 when he tore his Achilles tendon during Game 5 of the 2019 NBA Finals between his Golden State Warriors and that year's champion Toronto Raptors. He missed the entire next season. Tatum is 27 years old now. That alone works in Tatum's favor, but Durant's post-injury form paints a promising picture.

While Durant's numbers have tailed off over the last few years on the wrong side of 35, his first season post-injury, with a new team, the Brooklyn Nets, one not as well-built for KD's talents, saw higher true-shooting, defensive rebounding, and assist percentages. Durant was more efficient, and he didn't look any slower according to the eye test.

Tatum will be coming back to a team that's going to ask him to play at a similar pace, but with more of an emphasis on his low-post scoring. Boston got rid of most of their bigs capable of creating their own offense on the block. Tatum figures to function more as an offensive fulcrum as opposed to an attacking slasher or backdoor cutter like he was when Al Horford, Kristaps Porzingis, and even Jrue Holiday were operating at the elbow.

There's precedent for Tatum's return to be successful. Boston is better built to handle a more methodical Tatum this season than they were in years past.

That's why Simmons is hearing all this optimism around Beantown.