One Mistake the Boston Celtics Need to Avoid This Offseason to Maximize Their Assets

The Boston Celtics have a few tools at their disposal this summer as they try to remake some of the supporting cast around Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. And as we know, the Celtics are going to be as creative as possible when it comes to using them, which is a challenge to us on the outside as we try to figure out their plan of attack.

The needs

We know they're looking to boost their frontcourt somehow. Either Neemias Queta remains the starter and the Celtics will add a big of, they hope, equal ability to back him up, or they will find someone who starts over him, making Queta one of the best, if not THE best, backup bigs in the league.

We also know they’d like to add some scoring off the bench. They could use someone a little more dynamic who is good at getting to the rim.

These generic, faceless archetypes are easy to identify by attribute, but very difficult to narrow down by name. That's a problem compounded by a fairly limited crop of free agents. The pool of improvement is shallow this summer, so the Celtics, and us on the outside, have to follow one very important guiding principle here: Don’t feel the need to get it all done right away.

The early stages of this process is always spent laying out all the pieces the team has to use, and then dividing them all up with theoretical moves by July 1. We want the instant gratification of a complete roster before Keith Lockhart winds up for the 1812 overture.

But that's not how it works, nor is it how it should always go.

The tools

There are three distinct markers in the player acquisition market: Summer free agency, the December 15 lifting of restrictions, which allows free agents signed over the summer to be traded, and the February trade deadline. Boston has three different chances to survey the land and improve their team, while giving the guys on the roster a chance to show how much they’ve improved themselves.

Boston has five Traded Player Exceptions: $27.7 million, $8.2 million, $4.7 million, $2.5 million, $2.3 million. They also have a full Mid-Level Exception of $15 million.

A TPE can only be used to acquire players via trade, and the Celtics can’t combine all of them in pursuit of Giannis Antetokounmpo. They can be split, but they can’t be combined with other TPEs or a player for the purpose of salary matching. That means the $27.7 million TPE can’t be combined with Sam Hauser to get a $38 million player.

The MLE can be used both as a TPE to acquire someone via trade or to sign a free agent. While TPEs expire one year after they're created (which is what happens to most of them), an MLE is available to teams for the duration of the season.

So with that in mind, the Celtics can get to business incrementally improving their team.

The nerdy specifics of a slow grind

I’ve mentioned the potential for a sign-and-trade into a TPE, which would hard-cap the Celtics at the first apron. They probably don’t care about that much because they should have plenty of room and they're probably hoping to stay under the tax line anyway.

The Celtics can execute part of the plan now, and part of it later by using one or more sign-and-trades. The downside is that it would cost them second round picks to execute, but I also don’t think those are quite as valuable anymore because NIL is keeping mid-to-high second round talent in school, where they can make more money.

But even a weak pick is something for a team losing a free agent, which is better than nothing. And because they want to make agents happy, which impacts negotiations with other clients, many teams just play ball.

Because the Celtics have a few exceptions to use, they can use them to outbid teams at a few different levels. So if, for example, a player gets offered a taxpayer MLE ($6,065,000), Boston can come in with an offer of $6.5 million in a sign-and-trade, and they can use the $8.2 million exception to absorb the contract.

For example, Toronto doesn’t hold the Bird Rights to Sandro Mamukelashvili so they have to use an exception to give him any kind of meaningful raise. Boston can hover and out-bid them (within a reasonable amount), and then toss Toronto a second-round pick in a sign-and-trade. This keeps Bosto's two big exceptions clear for other business.

From there they can try to add a scorer, maybe Anfernee Simons or Coby White, to come off the bench, either with their $15 million MLE or again using the $27.7 TPE to acquire via a sign-and-trade if they need to outbid a team.

If they carry the $27.7 million TPE into the season, they can become major players at the trade deadline. If they use that and instead take the $15 million MLE into the season, they could still use that to acquire someone via trade, but they could also use some of it to out-bid teams for any good buyout candidates that hit the market.

In conclusion

There is a lot of nerdy talk in here, so let me sum it up in a more digestible way.

The Celtics have options, and they don’t have to use them all right away. There is a good chance that the Celtics only make a couple of moves this summer and keep some of the powder dry to wait out other teams teetering on the edge heading into the season.

Maybe the most important takeaway from this is that Boston’s team-building doesn’t end in the summer. The Celtics need to let the weight of other teams’ bad decisions and pressure from owners and fans take hold during the regular season.

Take the Orlando Magic, for instance. There are some trade targets on that team, but they just fired their coach, and they will be making moves this summer hoping to build a contender. They might be reluctant to trade some pieces away in July, but eager to in February if they have another disappointing season.

The Celtics will also give guys like Queta, Baylor Scheierman, Jordan Walsh, and Hugo Gonzalez some runway to demonstrate how much they’ve improved. A disappointing end to the season could be a big motivator for them, so adding a couple of good supporting pieces and then taking some time to gauge internal improvement is a smart way to go.

We all understand the sting of blowing that first round series. It’s important to react to it appropriately, but not overreact and create other problems in the process. There might be a temptation to say “that’s it?” when Boston’s summer is over, but if they preserve their tools for improving the team, they can let some of the returning guys prove themselves first. Maybe some internal growth can change the type of player the Celtics pursue, and push Boston in a direction they wouldn’t have anticipated if they blew all their chips in July.

Obviously, the Celtics will pounce on winning moves if they're available. But we have to understand that the best moves might not happen until the season presents a new batch of surprises and disappointments. Boston has to be prepared to jump on those opportunities, because they could be better than what's available this summer.

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