Clippers' Overestimation of Kawhi Leonard's Value May Prevent an Offseason Trade

The Los Angeles Clippers have to acknowledge the reality of Kawhi Leonard's trade value if they want to move him this summer.

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Until Kawhi Leonard puts pen to paper and signs a contract extension with the Los Angeles Clippers, trade rumors will not go anywhere. Entering the final season of his contract, Leonard either has to commit to the Clippers' future or allow the Clippers to trade him so that they can recoup some assets.

The problem here is that the Clippers may be way overestimating what Leonard's value on the market is. At least that is what The Athletic's Law Murray's latest remarks suggest.

Murray was a guest on Yossi Gozlan's Third Apron podcast discussing the Clippers' offseason. There were important insights in the discussion, but perhaps the most significant one was how unlikely the Clippers insider made a Leonard trade seem.

The trade packages discussed included:

1- Rudy Gobert, Julius Randle, No. 28 first-round pick, and 2033 first-round pick from Minnesota in exchange for Leonard and Bradley Beal
2- Andrew Wiggins, Kel'el Ware, No. 12 pick, and 2029 first-round pick from Miami for Leonard and Beal
3- Jimmy Butler, Brandin Podziemski, No. 11 pick, and 2032 first-round pick from Golden State for Leonard and Beal
4- Draymond Green, Kristaps Porzingis, No. 11 pick, and 2032 first-round pick from Golden State for Leonard and Beal

These are obviously only frameworks of trades, as the protections, picks, and players are subject to change. It's better to see it as a general value proposition to get a deal done.

That is where the problem lies. Murray wasn't particularly impressed with any of these packages. While acknowledging that the Timberwolves' offer was the best one, he said that if these were the offers, the Clippers' best option would be to hold onto Leonard.

This highlights how the Clippers value Leonard. It also underlines what the Clippers may be prioritizing in a Kawhi trade. If Minnesota's offer is the most attractive one, it's because it has the best players, not the best draft picks. This could demonstrate a desire for the Clippers to stay competitive in the post-Kawhi Leonard trade.

The issue is, a team that is trading for Leonard is unlikely to give up better players than Randle and Gobert. That team will presumably want to contend after bringing in Leonard. So, they will likely hesitate to give up valuable, All-Star caliber players in the deal.

If the Clippers actually think that a lottery pick in the upcoming draft, an unprotected future first, a talented young player like Ware, and a solid rotation player like Wiggins are not enough to trade Leonard on an expiring deal, then they will never find a trade that they like. The same is true with the Warriors' offer.

Even if the plan after Leonard is to stay competitive, do the Clippers really think that they can get a better return for Leonard than two All-Star players like Randle and Gobert, in addition to two first-round picks?

As incredible a season as Leonard just had, he will turn 35 in a month. He will require a new, multi-year contract extension. He hasn't played in the second round of the playoffs in five years and has stayed healthy once in his last three playoff appearances. There are clear risks associated with not only trading for him, but also re-signing him if you are the Clippers.

Unless the Clippers acknowledge this reality, an offseason trade may be unlikely.