Introducing Keaton Wagler: Get to Know the Likely No. 5 Pick for Clippers

The Los Angeles Clippers can still go in a different direction with their fifth overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft, but the most likely selection is shaping up to be Keaton Wagler of Illinois. Recent reports have suggested that the Clippers are considering all of the top guard prospects, as well as Michigan center Aday Mara, but the consensus is that the No.5 pick is Wagler's to lose.

Wagler burst onto the scene during Illinois' improbable Final Four run in the NCAA Tournament, but who is he? What are his strengths and weaknesses? What can he add to the Clippers?

Keaton Wagler's Strengths and Weaknesses

The six-foot-six guard was not a known commodity a year ago. He was a four-star recruit out of Shawnee, Kansas, and wasn't included in ESPN's Top 100 list. He had very limited offers from major conferences, but ended up committing to the Fighting Illini.

With his incredible production in his freshman season, Wagler came out of nowhere to become one of the best prospects of the draft class.

Watching Wagler, it's not hard to see why he was underrecruited. His physical and athletic tools don't jump off the screen. He has good positional size, but lacks speed, explosiveness, and strength. He will likely never be an above-average athlete for his position.

Everything else, however, pops immediately for Wagler. He is an all-around offensive engine, both with and without the ball. He is a very good decision-maker and plays with poise that is rare for a freshman guard. His craft and footwork are undeniable. He is an elite off-the-dribble shooter and an excellent catch-and-shoot threat.

Wagler projects to be a primary offensive engine in the NBA. He has the pick-and-roll ability, shot creation, and shot-making chops to become a number one option in the league. What makes him very intriguing, however, is that he doesn't need to be the No. 1 option to thrive.

He shot nearly 40% from three and is an excellent passer. He rebounds well and plays with a ton of intensity. If he ends up topping out as a complementary, off-ball player, he would still be a quality starter for a long time.

Strength will be the swing trait for Wagler. His slight frame made it easy for him to get pushed out of position and taken advantage of defensively. The good news is that Sam Vecenie of The Athletic just reported that Wagler added 20 pounds between the start of last season and the draft combine.

Keaton Wagler's Fit Next to Darius Garland

There will be questions about Wagler's fit next to Darius Garland. Having two underathletic, offense-first guards may not be an ideal pairing on paper.

However, the Clippers can't afford to pass on a talent like Wagler just because they traded for Garland a few months ago. Garland is not an elite enough offensive option to prevent the Clippers from picking the best player available. Plus, it's not even clear that Garland will still be on the team when Wagler becomes the fully actualized version of himself as an NBA player.

There is no guarantee that Garland and Wagler can't play together, either.

They can both shoot and play off the ball, and the Clippers have enough good defenders on the roster, like Kris Dunn, Derrick Jones Jr., and Kawhi Leonard, that they can somewhat compensate for the duo's defensive deficiencies. It's also not set in stone that Wagler will be a bad defender. He certainly has the size, willingness, and intelligence to be at least average on that end.

In prospect evaluation, focusing too much on physical and athletic tools and not enough on craft and production is a common mistake. It can lead to Jalen Brunson falling to the second round, Luka Doncic not being the No. 1 pick, and Austin Reaves going undrafted. Not saying that Wagler will be at that star level, but letting him fall out of the top five could be a similar miss.

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