Don’t Overreact to the Loss: The Lakers Look Built for a Deep Postseason Run

The Lakers lost a basketball game in Detroit on Monday.

Lately, that alone amounts to breaking news.

Final score in Motown: Pistons 113, Lakers 110 in a game that was exactly this close. L.A. led by four at the end of the first quarter. After a stinker of a second, it trailed by 13 at the half. After three quarters it cut the deficit to two. A back-and-forth fourth ended with a game-tying Luka Dončić 33-footer coming up short.

“Give a lot of credit to them,” LeBron James said. “We gave ourselves a chance.”

Monday’s loss was the Lakers’ first since March 5. It was just L.A.’s second this month. During the Lakers’ nine-game winning streak they ranked second in offensive efficiency, 10th in defensive efficiency and sixth in net rating.

Said coach JJ Redick, “We’re a good basketball team.”

Indeed, led by a great player. Dončić has been on a tear the last month. During the winning streak Dončić averaged an NBA-best 40 points per game. He shot 49% from the floor. He connected on 40% from three. He scored 60 points in a win over the Heat on Friday. Great, on its own. Astounding when you consider that the team reportedly checked into its Miami hotel around 5 a.m. the day of the game and needed every one of Dončić’s 60 to beat back the Heat.

“The shotmaking,” said Redick after the game, “was unreal.”

With three weeks to go in the regular season, Dončić has muscled his way into the MVP debate. These aren’t empty numbers. He scored 35 in a win over the Knicks. He totaled 76 in back-to-back road wins over the Rockets. He wasn’t efficient in Monday’s loss to Detroit, but he still racked up 32.

“I couldn’t see a reason why he’s not [in the MVP discussion],” Austin Reaves said last week. “I don’t think what I say is going to matter, but he definitely should be in that conversation.”

Said Redick, “It’s a special run that he’s on.”

James has had special runs. Lots of them. He’s a 22-time All-Star, a four-time MVP and, oh yeah, a four-time NBA champion. What James has done the last few weeks won’t be a bullet on a Wikipedia page. But it’s impressive. After conversations with Redick, James has slid seamlessly into a supporting role. He’s attempting a shade under 13 shots per game this month. That’s the fewest attempts per game in any month in his 23-year career.

“It’s the role that I’m playing for the ball club,” said James. “In order for us to win ball games, it’s the role that I’m playing and it’s just how the game is going.”

Earlier in the week, James rejected the bubbling narrative that the Lakers were better without him. “They’re absolutely wrong,” said James. Los Angeles is definitely better with this version of him. James shot 60% during the Lakers’ winning streak. His scoring was down. His steals were up. He’s deferred in the offense to Dončić and Reaves, turning his focus to playmaking and defense.

An example: With two minutes to play, the Lakers trailed by one. On the defensive possession, James matched up with Tobias Harris. As the ball crossed half court, Harris headed to the left block. Nearby, Duncan Robinson waited to set a screen to create a mismatch with Harris and Luke Kennard. James, reading it, came over the top, blew up the screen and was in perfect position to front Harris in the post. Instead of a high percentage shot in the paint, Detroit was forced into a contested drive by Daniss Jenkins.

“I’ve been around the block quite a while,” said James. “So I’ve seen a lot of the actions and things of that nature. So understanding the game as well.”

James gets his role. Seems Deandre Ayton does, too. Last month, Ayton decried the Lakers’ attempts at turning him into Clint Capela. Lately, he’s been playing like the best version of him. Ayton shot close to 70% during Los Angeles’s winning streak. Looking for a reason the Lakers defense jumped from the bottom third of the league to the top? Try Ayton, who has embraced his role as rebounder and rim protector.

Let’s stick with Ayton for a moment. There isn’t a more important role player this postseason. Not on the Lakers. Anywhere. In wins, Ayton is averaging 14.2 points and 9.2 rebounds on nearly 70% shooting. In losses, his production is sliced to 9.2 points and 6.6 rebounds on 61% shooting.

Consider the gauntlet the Lakers will have to face in the Western Conference. If the season ended today, L.A. would face Houston. That means Alperen Şengün and a physical frontcourt. In the second round, there’s that Victor Wembanyama fella. In the conference finals, Chet Holmgren will probably be waiting. The Lakers don’t need Ayton’s offense. They need him for everything else.

And if they get it? Admit it—this team can make a run. Dončić is the most potent offensive weapon in the game. Reaves has found a niche alongside him. James is the most qualified third option in NBA history who down the stretch can still dial it up. Marcus Smart is channeling his inner Celtic, while Rui Hachimura and Kennard have opened up the floor with their three-point shooting.

Listen to the Lakers the last few weeks and you can tell—they believe. Wins over Denver, Houston and Orlando were all competitive. Against Detroit, L.A. trailed by as many as 16. Asked what habits he liked about the Lakers the last few weeks, James said, “Mental toughness.”

“It’s a couple games where we got down,” said James. “A couple games where we got up, teams made a run, took leads, we [were] able to stay resilient and come back.”

A few weeks ago the path to the NBA Finals seemed like a lock to run through Oklahoma City or San Antonio. And maybe it still will. But the Lakers will enter the postseason with momentum, along with two of the best playoff performers of this generation. That’s a team you can’t count out.

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