Memphis Grizzlies Draft Lottery Outcomes, Ranked by Probability and Targets

The Memphis Grizzlies enter the NBA Draft Lottery in a position where movement is realistic, but the most likely outcome still keeps them in the middle of the board. Their range of outcomes could shape whether they swing on a high-upside guard or pivot toward frontcourt stability with their later pick at No. 16.

Here is every possible landing spot for Memphis and what each scenario could mean.

The Grizzlies have won the tiebreaker and will select 16th in the First Round of the 2026 NBA Draft.

(via @NBAPR)

Memphis also has the sixth best odds (9.0%) at landing the #1 pick in the NBA Draft Lottery on May 10th.

CAN’T WAIT FOR LOTTERY NIGHT…🍀 pic.twitter.com/bXS0QvcCys
— Grizz Lead (@Grizz_Lead) April 20, 2026

10th Overall 0.2% Chance

This is the worst-case outcome for Memphis. It would require multiple teams behind them jumping into the top four and pushing them down one spot.

9th Overall 3.9% Chance

A slight drop but still within the expected lottery band.

At 9, Memphis would likely lean into upside guard playmaking or combo scoring threats. This is where long-term development becomes the priority rather than immediate impact.

Memphis has picked a key player here recently.

The Memphis Grizzlies select Zach Edey with the 9th pick of the 2024 NBA Draft 🔥

Edey was a 2x National Player of the Year at Purdue 💪 pic.twitter.com/ZyRRcE9NZh
— ClutchPoints (@ClutchPoints) June 27, 2024

8th Overall 20.6% Chance

A key landing spot in Memphis’ range.

This is a very likely position where the guard options begin to get slimmer, but still a solid spot to selct from.

Memphis has never selected 8th.

7th Overall 29.7% Chance

This is the most likely outcome for Memphis, another position they have never selected from.

At 7, the Grizzlies are firmly in a tier where guard evaluation becomes the central focus. This is where Memphis has the flexibility to choose their preferred direction among high-upside perimeter creators.

Darius Acuff Jr., Bradyen Burries, Keaton Wagler, Kingston Flemings, and Mikel Brown Jr. all remain firmly in play here. Memphis can pick their choice based on fit, scoring upside, or long-term backcourt identity. This is the range where they can truly shape their guard future depending on how they value creation versus efficiency.

6th Overall 8.6% Chance

A strong jump into the upper tier of the lottery.

At 6, Memphis is in a highly flexible position. This is where they can essentially pick their preferred guard prospect from the top cluster of talent.

At this range, Memphis can realistically pick their choice. If they move lower than this, the pool of available guards narrows, but they are still left with good players who can contribute and develop into long-term rotation pieces.

Kentucky guards have generally been a safe pick over the last decade under Calipari

If "Arkansas Guards" becomes the next trend, the Grizzlies might need to take a chance on Darius Acuff Jr.#GrindCity pic.twitter.com/peIl4NV9Bo
— SleeperGrizzlies (@SleeperMemphis) March 23, 2026

Top 4 Overall Odds 37.2% Chance

A major swing zone that changes everything for Memphis.

A top-four jump immediately elevates the franchise’s flexibility and gives them access to elite-tier prospects or major trade leverage.

4th Overall 9.6% Chance

At 4, Memphis is strictly looking at the top tier of the draft.

The focus here is on Cameron Boozer, Darryn Peterson, and Caleb Wilson. These are the clear blue-chip prospects in this range. Memphis would be selecting from this trio based on long-term upside and franchise projection rather than positional need.

3rd Overall 9.4% Chance

Same tier, same decision-making structure.

At 3, the board is still centered around Cameron Boozer, Darryn Peterson, and Caleb Wilson. Memphis is guaranteed one of the elite prospects in this group and would be selecting purely on long-term franchise potential.

2nd Overall 9.2% Chance

At 2, Memphis is in the same elite conversation.

The selection remains focused on Boozer, Peterson, or Wilson depending on how the top of the draft breaks. This is a franchise-defining pick where upside is everything.

Memphis has picked 2nd 5 times in the franchises history.

1st Overall 9.0% Chance

Boom. Full control of the draft and their first ever #1 overall pick.

At 1, Memphis is expected to select AJ Dybantsa as the consensus top player in the class. This instantly gives them a franchise cornerstone and makes it easier to move on from Ja Morant, maybe he would even want to stay.

Pick No. 16 (Guaranteed Selection)

Regardless of lottery results, Memphis also holds the No. 16 pick.

This is where roster balance comes into play. If Memphis uses their lottery pick on a guard, No. 16 becomes a key opportunity to address the frontcourt. They can target size, rim protection, and interior stability to complement their perimeter scoring.

Bottom Line

Memphis has a wide and meaningful lottery range, but the most likely outcome keeps them between 6 and 8. That is where the Grizzlies have full flexibility to choose among Darius Acuff Jr., Bradyen Burries, Keaton Wagler, Kingston Flemings, and Mikel Brown Jr.

At 6 and above, they can pick their preferred guard or top prospect and shape their future. Below that range, the options thin slightly, but Memphis is still left with strong developmental guards who can grow into long-term contributors.

With the No. 16 pick also in hand, Memphis has the ability to balance their roster by pairing a guard selection with a frontcourt addition, giving them flexibility no matter how the lottery unfolds.

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