The odds Memphis upgrades from Desmond Bane with Orlando's pick

Last summer, the Grizzlies acquired Orlando's 2026 first-round pick, among others, for their starting guard

Apr 18, 2025; Memphis, Tennessee, USA; Memphis Grizzlies guard Ja Morant (12) reacts with guard Desmond Bane (22) during the first quarter against the Dallas Mavericks at FedExForum. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-Imagn Images | Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

The Memphis Grizzlies traded Desmond Bane to the Orlando Magic on June 15, 2025, in exchange for four unprotected first-round picks in 2025 (Yang Hansen), 2026, 2028, and 2030, a first-round pick swap in 2027, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Cole Anthony. Orlando's 2026 pick will be the 16th overall selection.

We have acquired guard-forward Desmond Bane from the Memphis Grizzlies in exchange for guard Cole Anthony, guard Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and multiple future first round draft picks. pic.twitter.com/IL1Bg4xViB

— Orlando Magic (@OrlandoMagic) June 15, 2025

To put it simply, drafting a player better than Bane with this pick will be very difficult.

Outside of his injury-riddled 2023-24 season and his rookie year, Bane has averaged a 41st-place finish in the NBA in Basketball Reference win shares. He posted a career-high 7.4 win shares in 2025-26, good for 27th in the league, putting him firmly in the top 10 percent of players in the league.

Desmond Bane 25 PTS, 7 REB, 1 STL, 9/18 FG, 7/9 3FG, 0 FTS, 69.4% TS vs Pistons pic.twitter.com/VoXF88XOre https://t.co/nQbaPopQoy

— Basketball Performances (@NBAPerformances) April 25, 2026

On average, NBA draft classes produce approximately three to five All-Stars. Historic classes like 1984, 1996, and 2003 produced nine or 10.

Bane is not quite at the All-Star level, but his top-10-percent standing suggests there are roughly six to eight top-50-caliber players in a typical draft class relative to the 3-5 All-Star mark. There are 60 players drafted each year, and six out of 60 fit the 10 percent proportion.

The 2026 class is viewed as potentially historic, headlined by BYU's AJ Dybantsa, Kansas' Darryn Peterson, and Duke's Cameron Boozer. The depth behind them is notable, too, with one-and-done freshmen like North Carolina's Caleb Wilson, Arkansas' Darius Acuff Jr., Houston's Kingston Flemings, and Illinois' Keaton Wagler all projecting as first-round talents.

Apr 4, 2026; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini guard Keaton Wagler (23) dribbles the ball against UConn Huskies guard Silas Demary Jr. (2) in the second half during a semifinal of the Final Four of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images | Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

In a draft that projects to produce more good players than average, let's say Memphis needs to land one of the top eight picks to get a player better than Bane. That is obviously more likely with its own lottery selection than with Orlando's. But there is still an opportunity to find a quality player with a later pick, especially in this class.

In ESPN's latest mock draft, Jeremy Woo projects the Grizzlies to select Washington freshman Hannes Steinbach with the 16th overall pick. Danny Chau's mock for The Ringer has Memphis taking Steinbach at 16 as well.

Mar 11, 2026; Chicago, IL, USA; Washington Huskies forward Hannes Steinbach (6) looks to pass the ball against Southern California Trojans forward Ezra Ausar (2) during the second half at United Center. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images | Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

Steinbach's production is hard to ignore — 18.5 points and 11.8 rebounds per game — but scouts are split on him. The main concern is positional fit. He profiles as a tweener between the four and five and is not a reliable defensive anchor. ESPN's Woo has him ranked 14th overall, while The Ringer's J. Kyle Mann slots him at 22.

Players being ranked in a similar range include Alabama sophomore Labaron Philon, Michigan senior Yaxel Lendeborg, Michigan junior Aday Mara, and Tennessee freshman Nate Ament.

Apr 4, 2026; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Michigan Wolverines center Aday Mara (15) and forward Yaxel Lendeborg (23) react during the second half in a semifinal of the Final Four of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Going back to the top eight objective, ESPN and The Ringer share these same nine names in their top 10 rankings: Dybantsa, Peterson, Boozer, Wilson, Acuff, Flemings, Wagler, Arizona freshman Brayden Burries, and Louisville freshman Mikel Brown Jr. It is unlikely all nine end up being the best players from this class, but it does illustrate that whoever Memphis drafts with Orlando's pick will not come from the top two or three tiers of prospects.

The odds that Zach Kleiman drafts a better player than Bane with his second first-rounder are long.

Apr 27, 2026; Orlando, Florida, USA; Orlando Magic guard Desmond Bane (3) shoots during the second half against the Detroit Pistons during game four of the first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs at Kia Center. Mandatory Credit: Mike Watters-Imagn Images | Mike Watters-Imagn Images

That said, the Grizzlies did not trade Bane in an attempt to replace him outright. The decision came down to salary cap and apron management, the total asset package Orlando offered, and whether Bane's contract was worth it given Memphis' roster construction. As good as Bane is, a five-year, $197 million deal for a third option is a steep price to pay. Getting out from under it while collecting the return Memphis did made plenty of sense.

Whether the Grizzlies hit with Orlando's pick or not, there is still one more unprotected first-rounder and a swap year ahead. This pick is one piece of a much larger puzzle.