The one player the Memphis Grizzlies should avoid at #16

With the NBA draft being two weeks away, the story that is dominating the headlines is who the Memphis Grizzlies should select with the third overall pick. The debate between Cameron Boozer, Caleb Wilson, and Daryn Peterson has fans and analysts alike going back and forth about which one will change the franchise. However, Memphis also has an important decision to make at the 16th overall pick. General Manager Zach Klieman has a history of selecting solid players regardless of draft order and must continue that trend this year.

There is a plethora of options to pick from that could fulfill multiple needs for Memphis. Memphis has brought in several players for workouts in anticipation of picking at 16. However, the one prospect Klimean flew out of the country to go scout is Karim Lopez, and Lopez is exactly who Memphis should avoid selecting at 16.

Lopez is a 19-year-old, 6’9 forward who played two seasons in the Australian National Basketball League (NBL) for the New Zealand Breakers. Last season, he averaged 11.9 points, 6.1 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.2 steals, and 1.0 blocks per game. During the draft process, Lopez’s projected position has fluctuated up and down. Mock drafts have projected him anywhere between late-lottery and late first round.

Not NBA Ready

Lopez impressed scouts with his physical attributes and extensive pro-level experience. He had success last year as he helped the Breakers win the first-ever Ignite Cup Final during the Hungry Jack’s NBL26 Season. His 222-pound frame, combined with his 6'11.5 wingspan and 8'9.5 standing reach, stood out as prime modern-wing size. He showed flashes of success attacking downhill and had good defensive intangibles.

Lopez also hopes to follow the recent trend of players being selected in the first round after playing in the NBL. LaMelo Ball (2020), Josh Giddey (2021), Ousmane Dieng (2022), and Alex Sarr (2024) have all had moderate to above-average success in the NBA, and Lopez hopes to add to that list.

However, after looking deeper at Lopez’s film and numbers, he is not a player Memphis should want to build around. First off, Lopez is a below-average shooter. Throughout his NBL career, he shot 31.8% from three. He also shot a 72.9% from the free-throw line. He scored most of his points in the paint, but didn’t show elite athleticism or creativity to get to his spots.

On the next level, most players of Lopez’s size can create for themselves and others in many different ways. These skills don’t come as naturally to Lopez, and he struggled in situations where he had to make plays that weren’t in the transition or the open floor.

With his limited handle and offensive versatility, it’ll be hard for Lopez to adjust to the NBA’s pace and space. If selected by Memphis, it’ll be hard for him to crack an already loaded wing rotation. GG Jackson II and Cedric Coward are better scorers and shooters than Lopez, and Jaylen Wells and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are better defenders than him as well. Defensively, he had issues guarding athletic wings and quicker guards on switches. He also appeared to have a problem with ball-watching and being flat-footed on off-ball movements.

Memphis can get more value out of a pick at 16 than a guy who will likely be fighting for minutes or spending most of his time with the Memphis Hustle. This upcoming season is make-or-break for Klieman. Memphis is clearly going into a new direction, and Klieman must come out of this offseason with a roster fit to compete for years to come. Memphis needs young, promising pieces that can impact winning early and be productive for the future. Drafting an international “project” player isn’t the way to do that. Lopez will certainly be drafted in the first round, but the Memphis Grizzlies shouldn’t be the team to select him.

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