Atlanta Hawks vs Houston Rockets: Final Spread and Score Predictions

Update (10:00 A.M ET): Today's game between the Hawks and Rockets has been postponed to a later date due to severe weather in the Atlanta area. The Hawks released a statement just minutes ago regarding the game:

"The National Basketball Association game scheduled for this afternoon between the Houston Rockets and Atlanta Hawks at State Farm Arena has been postponed. The decision was made in consultation with local officials and to prioritize the safety of the players, fans and staff due to the severe weather and hazardous icy conditions in the Atlanta area. The date for the rescheduled game will be announced at a later time."

The Hawks wrapped up their six game road trip on Thursday against the Suns and for the first time since December 2024, they are playing a home game at State Farm Arena. Their opponent today is the Houston Rockets, who are currently in 2nd place in the Western Conference. The Rockets are one of the deepest teams in the league and the Hawks are yet again going to be without Jalen Johnson. This is the fourth straight missed game for Johnson and his fifth absence in the last six games.

Our own Rohan Raman gave an in-depth preview of today's game:

"Coming into tonight's game, the Hawks are 6th in the NBA in PPG, 15th in FG%, 19th in 3PA, 18th in 3P%, 5th in FTA, 23rd in turnovers, and 9th in rebounding. Per Cleaning the Glass, Atlanta is 14th in points per 100 possessions, 16th in effective field goal percentage, 19th in turnover percentage, 9th in offensive rebounding percentage, and 10th in free throw rate.

Currently, the Hawks rank 28th in PPG allowed, 25th in field goal percentage allowed, 29th in three-point attempts allowed and 30th in three-point percentage allowed. Per Cleaning the Glass, Atlanta is 20th in points allowed per 100 possessions and 28th in effective field goal percentage allowed.

Houston does not shoot the ball well, but usually closes the gap through second-chance points on offense. The Rockets are 12th in points per game, 28th in FG%, 19th in 3PA, 29th in 3P%, 7th in FTA, 23rd in turnovers and 1st in rebounding. Per Cleaning the Glass, Houston is 10th in points per 100 possessions, 28th in effective field goal percentage, 5th in turnover percentage, 1st in offensive rebounding percentage, and 16th in free throw rate.

Their strength is on defense. The Rockets rank 3rd in PPG allowed, 3rd in field goal percentage allowed, 2nd in three-point attempts allowed and 11th in three-point percentage allowed. Per Cleaning the Glass, Houston is 3rd in points allowed per 100 possessions and 3rd in effective field goal percentage allowed.

Given how good Houston is as a perimeter defense, this is going to be a very tough matchup for a Hawks team that already does not shoot the ball particularly well. The Rockets communicate well on defense and should be able to key in on a Hawks team very reliant on Bogdan Bogdanovic and De'Andre Hunter for high-volume shooting from beyond the arc.

Jan 9, 2025; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Atlanta Hawks forward De'Andre Hunter (12) against the Phoenix Suns at Footprint Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

One interesting matchup to watch in this game is Trae Young vs Amen Thompson. Thompson's combination of 6'7 size, ridiculous speed and defensive instincts is elite and he uses it to great effect when hounding opposing ball-handlers. He's not much of a shooter, but he finishes well at the rim and can make a massive impact in the time that he's on the court.

It will also be interesting to see how Clint Capela and Onyeka Okongwu fare in their matchup against Alperen Sengun. The Rockets center is excellent on offense, but his rim protection leaves something to be desired. That could be an area to exploit for Capela/Okongwu.

Without Jalen Johnson, the Hawks are going to need to call on David Roddy at points during this game. Roddy went 3/3 from deep and scored 11 points. If he can produce a similar amount of offense for Atlanta while surviving on defense, that would be massive for their chances of surviving this matchup.

DeAndre Hunter has been one of the more consistent parts of Atlanta's bench all season, but he's coming off a down game against the Suns with 12 points on 3-9 shooting. A return to form will be critical against the Rockets, who could be without one or both of Tari Eason and Jabari Smith Jr on the perimeter.

From a defensive perspective from Atlanta, Fred VanVleet has done a good job of taking care of the ball in his last few outings. However, the Rockets' point guard has not encountered a player like Dyson Daniels before. Daniels routinely forces ball-handlers into bad decisions and turnovers. He'll need to get a few in order to keep VanVleet at bay and give Atlanta an advantage in this game."

Odds

According to Fanduel Sportsbook, the Rockets are six point favorites today and the total is set at 232.5.

Prediction

It is no secret that the Hawks don't play well without Johnson and the Rockets present a lot of challenges, They have a lot of defenders who can pressure Trae Young and make his life difficult and having Johnson as the secondary ball-handler would have been huge for this matchup. The Rockets are not an elite offensive team when it comes to shooting, but the absence of Johnson against an elite rebounding team is also going to be trouble. The Hawks shot the ball well against Phoenix, but I see them struggling to do that tonight and the Rockets winning against the Hawks.

Final Score: Rockets 117, Hawks 112

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Prediction

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