Hawks vs Magic: Game Preview, Betting Odds, Injury Report, Projected Starting Lineups For Tonight's Game

After dissecting the Utah Jazz's putrid defense yesterday, the Atlanta Hawks have one of their biggest games of the season tonight against the Orlando Magic. As a reminder, the No. 7 seed in the Eastern Conference regular season standings has homecourt advantage throughout the play-in and clinches a playoff berth by beating the No. 8 seed. Even with a loss, they have another chance at home to defeat the winner of the matchup between the No. 9 and the No. 10 seeds to enter the playoffs as the eighth seed. In short, getting the No. 7 seed drastically increases the margin for error.

While the Hawks held onto that spot for a significant portion of the season, the Magic currently hold the No. 7 seed and they are exactly 1 game in front of the Hawks. Atlanta has two very winnable matchups against the Nets and 76ers sandwiched in between their two games against the Magic, so they have a chance to go 4-0 or 3-1 down the stretch and claim the seventh seed. On paper, Orlando has harder games on their schedule - they play two Eastern Conference playoff teams in the Celtics and Pacers. There is a very clear path towards Atlanta getting the top seed in the play-in, but they have to take care of buisness. That starts tonight.

Yesterday's game against the Jazz was a fairly accurate illustration of what this Hawks team is like entering the 2024-25 postseason - they have to score a ton of points to keep up with the scoring output they allow. Utah is missing three of its best players in Lauri Markkanen, Walker Kessler and John Collins while also running out lineups designed to lose games in their quest to land Cooper Flagg. That didn't stop them from scoring 135 points led by Keyonte George dropping a carer-high 35 points off the bench while draining seven threes. In addition, Collin Sexton also had an efficient 27 points on 9-16 shooting while Isaiah Collier had a double-double with 17 point and 12 assists. Atlanta let one of the worst shooting teams in basketball shoot 42% from deep as a team. It's an extremely worrying sign for their chances of being able to defend at anywhere close to a playoff basketball level.

Fortunately, they were able to outscore Utah in a 147-135 shootout win. Although they haven't been especially accurate from beyond the arc, the Hawks shot a staggering 53.7% from deep as every single player in the rotation made at least one three-point attempt. The bench for the Hawks scored 56 points and the team only had 11 turnovers. The Hawks finished with a 140.3 offensive rating and a 71% true shooting percentage. Onyeka Okongwu had 27 points and 12 rebounds on efficient 12-18 shooting splits while also knocking down two threes. As usual, Trae Young had another 20+ point and 10+ assist outing (23 points and 15 assists). Off the bench, Vit Krejci went a perfect 5-5 from deep and Caris LeVert had 21 points. While it was good to see the offense take advantage of a terrible Utah perimeter defense, things won't be as easy against Orlando.

Game Preview

Coming into tonight's game, the Hawks are 5th in the NBA in PPG, 14th in FG%, 15th in 3PA, 18th in 3P%, 3rd in FTA, 26th in turnovers, and 14th in rebounding. Per Cleaning the Glass, Atlanta is 15th in points per 100 possessions, 16th in effective field goal percentage, 22nd in turnover percentage, 12th in offensive rebounding percentage, and 9th in free throw rate.

Currently, the Hawks rank 27th in PPG allowed, 29th in field goal percentage allowed, 15th in three-point attempts allowed, and 28th in three-point percentage allowed. Per Cleaning the Glass, Atlanta is 19th in points allowed per 100 possessions and 29th in effective field goal percentage allowed.

The absence of Jalen Suggs has further comprised the spacing of an already struggling Orlando offense. They're 29th in points per game, 27th in FG%, 23rd in 3PA, 30th in 3P%, 2nd in FTA, 16th in turnovers, and 27th in rebounding. Per Cleaning the Glass, Orlando is 27th in points per 100 possessions, 29th in effective field goal percentage, 20th in turnover percentage, 13th in offensive rebounding percentage, and 2nd in free throw rate.

The Magic are heavily reliant on the strength of their excellent defense. They are 1st in PPG allowed, 16th in field goal percentage allowed, 1st in three-point attempts allowed, and 25th in three-point percentage allowed. Per Cleaning the Glass, Orlando is 2nd in points allowed per 100 possessions and 12th in effective field goal percentage allowed.

Orlando have home court advantage, four days of extra rest and with a win in six of their last eight games. Their most impressive win was a commanding 118-106 win over the same Los Angeles Lakers team that blew the doors off of the Western Conference's top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder. Against the Hawks, they're 1-1 on the season. Both of their games against Atlanta were low-scoring affairs where it came down to which team performed better in the clutch. In the first game on February 10th, Atlanta outlasted the Magic with a 112-106 win. The second game on February 20th broke in Orlando's favor, 114-108, due to a horrid performance from the Hawks offense in the fourth quarter. Therefore, it's fair to expect tonight's game will be hotly contested and neither team will be able to definitively take the other out of the game. Orlando's offense isn't built for extended streaks of good shooting and the Hawks don't have the defensive personnel to put the Magic away.

In terms of positive factors for the Hawks' chances in this game, there are two big ones. First, the Hawks are a deeper team than Orlando. Atlanta's bench has outscored the Magic in both of their matchups and Caris LeVert has scored double-digit points in both of those matchups. Terance Mann was pivotal in the Hawks' win against the Magic in their earlier matchup, but didn't find the same success in their loss. Georges Niang was adequately muted in both of those games, but they happened relatively early in his tenure with the Hawks. It's possible that the increased time with the team leads to Niang finding more success with his three-ball. Adding Vit Krejci, who did not play in the last game against the Magic, back into the rotation also gives the Hawks another 3&D option to utilize.

Secondly, Trae Young has risen to the occasion when they needed him against Orlando. Although he missed two big threes that ultimately sealed their loss to the Magic, he scored 38 points overall and 15 points in the fourth quarter to give Atlanta a chance. Conversely, the rest of the starting lineup combined for a grand total of zero points in the fourth quarter. In the Hawks win against Orlando, he had 11 of his 19 points in the fourth quarter. The Magic are going to devote a ton of attention to Young, but it's good to see that he's been able to find his shot down the stretch. They are going to be able to go at him on defense, but Young's job is to make up for it with excellent passing and hitting shots at critical points for the Hawks. If he can eclipse 30 points again, it's hard to not feel good about Atlanta's chances for victory.

However, the Magic's biggest advantage in this game is that the Hawks have no answer for their two young star wings in Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero. Both have torched the Hawks this year. In the Feb 10th game that Atlanta ended up winning, they had to stave off 31 points from Banchero and 37 points from Franz Wagner. The Feb 20th loss to the Magic was in large part due to Banchero's 36 points and 10 rebounds. Neither Banchero or Wagner are particularly strong floor spacers, but they are good finishers who are hard to stop inside the arc. Wagner is a great defender while Banchero's combination of passing and finishing makes both difficult players for the Hawks to slow down. Given the Hawks current roster, it makes sense to use a combination of Mo Gueye and Niang on Paolo while using a combination of Risacher and Dyson Daniels on Franz. Either way, it's hard to expect much success from either strategy. Atlanta is just going to have to force the rest of the Magic's lineup to not beat them.

Outside of Banchero and Wagner, there's reason to believe Atlanta can fare well against the Magic's lineup. Cory Joseph is a solid passer, but he isn't much of a scorer anymore and Wendell Carter Jr is having a down year as a shooter - he has a 54.4 TS% after shooting above 60% for three straight seasons. Jonathan Isaac is barely in the rotation and hasn't been a major factor in either of the last two games against Atlanta. The two players who can give the Magic an offensive spark are Cole Anthony and Caleb Houstan. Anthony is shooting a respectable 34.8% on 3.2 attempts from deep and he scored 17 points in the Magic's win over Atlanta. Houstan is one of the most trusted shooting options for the Magic. On the season, he's hitting 39.7% of his threes, albeit on a limited 2.7 attempts per game. Post All-Star Break, those numbers have shot up to 52.8% from deep on 3.1 attempts per game. At 6'8, he brings a combination of size and shooting that the Hawks are going to be hard-pressed to stop.

This game is going to be a major test for Onyeka Okongwu, Zaccharie Risacher and Dyson Daniels. Okongwu has been very quiet against the Magic this season, averaging 10 points and seven rebounds while going 0-3 from deep and finishing with a below-average 55.3 TS%. His strong performance against the Jazz needs to carry over into finding some success against Carter Jr as a scorer and defender. Risacher has hit 11 points in both games and even pulled down 12 rebounds in the loss on February 20th, but he's been quiet in the second half across the two outings. Daniels' defense has shown up - the scoring just needs to be better. They need strong two-way performances from at least one of these three if they want to beat an extremely motivated Orlando team.

Injury Report

Trae Young (right Achilles tendinitis) is probable while Clint Capela and Larry Nance remain out.

For Orlando, Jalen Suggs and Mo Wagner are both out for tonight's game due to season-ending injuries.

Odds

According to Fanduel Sportsbook, the Magic are 4 point favorites against the Hawks tonight and the total is set at 225.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Projected starting lineups

Hawks:

G- Trae Young

G - Dyson Daniels

F - Zaccharie Risacher

F - Mouhamed Gueye

C - Onyeka Okongwu

Magic

G - Cory Joseph

G - Kentavius Caldwell-Pope

F - Franz Wagner

F - Paolo Banchero

C- Wendell Carter Jr

Additional Links

ESPN Analyst Reveals What It Would Have Taken For The Atlanta Hawks To Have Traded For Luka Doncic

2025 NBA Mock Draft: Latest Mock Sees Hawks Take Elite Defender, Plus One Of The Draft's Best Shooters

Three Biggest Takeaways From Atlanta's 147-134 Win Over Utah