ESPN Analyst Breaks Down Financial Ramifications of Hawks Selecting A Player With The No. 1 Pick

The Hawks stunned the NBA world when they won the 2024 NBA Draft Lottery on Sunday after coming into the day with just 3% odds to land the No. 1 pick. Going from No., 10 to No. 1 is huge in any draft, even if this draft is perceived to be weaker than others. The Hawks could face an interesting situation with the salary cap according to ESPN's Bobby Marks, as he explained yesterday:

"In any other year, moving up nine slots in the draft to No. 1 would be seen as a coup -- especially for an Atlanta Hawks team that has been mired in mediocrity the past three seasons. But team executives ESPN talked to hours after Sunday's draft lottery did not want to discuss who Atlanta could draft, but instead more the financial ramifications of now having the top pick.

Because the NBA operates with a sliding rookie scale based on when a player is selected, Atlanta is set to increase their payroll by an additional $7 million (the first pick is $12.6 million compared to $5.5 million for a player selected 10th). This matters because Atlanta now has $175.9 million in salary and is projected to be in the luxury tax for the first time since 2010-11.

More important, however, is the Hawks are $2.2 million above the first apron, a result of the unlikely De'Andre Hunter, Dejounte Murray and Clint Capela bonuses. Unlikely incentives continue to count against the first and second apron even if they are not reached. Signing restricted free agent Saddiq Bey to either a qualifying offer or new contract would also push Atlanta over the second apron.

As teams have pointed out, keep an eye on the Hawks' $23 million trade exception that is set to expire July 7. If Atlanta does not shed salary, the exception is not allowed in a trade. Atlanta would also not be allowed to aggregate contracts or take back more money in a trade if the acquiring salary leaves them over the second apron.

Despite the bleak financial outlook, Capela (the Hawks' starting center) is on an expiring $22.3 million contract and could be expendable if Atlanta drafts Alex Sarr at No. 1. Also, outside of veteran Trae Young, no player on the Hawks' roster earns more than $25.5 million."

Atlanta is a team that has avoided paying the luxury tax in recent seasons, with the Kevin Huerter trade two summers ago and the John Collins deal last summer as two deals to look at as salary-saving moves for the team.

While it is an interesting thing to note, I don't think it is going to be something that lingers over the Hawks using the No. 1 pick. If the Hawks do take Sarr, I do think they are going to try and move Capela. Even if Atlanta decides to take another prospect like Matas Buzelis or Donovan Clingan, I think moving off of Capela could be seen as likely and a way to lower their salary.

Alex Sarr has been mocked to the Hawks by several prominent outlets over the past 24 hours or so since the Draft Lottery and if Atlanta does take him, it makes a lot of sense. Atlanta has struggled on the defensive end of the floor for the past few seasons and lacks size, athleticism, and length, which Sarr brings in droves. He is 7'1, 220 LBS, and has a 7'4 wingspan. He uses his athleticism well and would be an impact guy on that end of the floor immediately. He is arguably the highest-ceiling prospect in the draft at a position of need for the Hawks. He is the presumed favorite to be selected No. 1 for a reason.