What Are The Chances The Hawks Do Something Shocking With The No. 1 Pick?

There are now 13 days until the first round of the NBA Draft begins and the Hawks are going to be on the clock. What they do when they are on the clock is something that nobody really knows yet though.

The Hawks did not expect to be picking in this position and while this draft does not have the superstar talent of previous drafts, there are some useful pieces here that would help the Hawks, a team that already has some young talent in place. This draft has been likened to the 2013 draft, the draft where the Cleveland Cavaliers shocked the world by picking Anthony Bennett at No. 1. With some of the uncertainty at the top of this draft, there has been some speculation about what the Hawks might do. The popular names at the top are French prospects Alex Sarr and Zaccharie Risacher, with UConn center Donovan Clingan also gaining momentum in the process. It seems like the Hawks are just going to stick there and take one of these players or possibly trade back and still get Clingan.

But what if they go in a different direction, like the Cavs did 11 years ago? Could the Hawks do something unexpected with the No. 1 pick and take a player who is not really getting talked about as much?

I think it is possible, but not likely. I think this draft has better talent at the top than in 2013 and there seems to be a decent consensus on who the top guys are in this draft, unlike 2013. While their overall ceiling can be debated, I think that Sarr, Clingan, Risacher, and Reed Sheppard are better prospects than the players in 2013. Yes, the 2013 draft did produce Giannis Antetokoumpo and Rudy Gobert, but those players were not seen as terrific prospects.

If the Hawks did stay at No. 1 and take an unexpected player at No. 1, who could it be?

While I like Sheppard as a prospect, I don't love his fit with Trae Young and don't think Atlanta could really afford to take him No. 1. The guy that comes to mind for me would be Ron Holland, a player who was once projected to be near the top of the draft, but has seemingly fallen out of contention and might slide on draft night.

Holland might be the most athletic player in this year's draft and could be the best wing defender, something Atlanta sorely needs. His questions come on the offensive end, but if the Hawks believed there was potential there, could they take a big swing and hope he turns into an elite two-way player? This draft does not really have that type of player and while Risacher is seen as having a much higher floor, his ceiling might not be what Holland's is.

John Hollinger at The Athletic has Holland as the top player on his draft board:

" Now, for the good news: He came into the year as the top-rated player on most boards, had better numbers with G League Ignite than any other one-and-done in its history … and somehow went careening down draft boards anyway, even in a draft year where absolutely nobody came in and claimed the top spot for themselves.

I don’t really get it. The biggest complaint with Holland is his lack of efficiency, but that was baked in the second Ignite built this roster. Virtually any teenager put in a situation where he has to carry a 30 percent usage rate is going to struggle; we saw it with LaMelo Ball in Australia and Scoot Henderson in Portland. Holland was no different, especially since he’s not a natural point guard in the first place. Playing on a team with no real creator, he often had to call his own number against loaded-up defenses.

Did he get tunnel vision once he put it on the floor? Absolutely. Was it so tragic to rule him out versus other non-overwhelming options? I don’t think so, especially as the season wore on.

Holland's numbers stack up well against Jalen Green’s with Ignite and are superior to every other Ignite perimeter player who has come through. That happened despite Holland missing the final two months of the season, when his increasing experience would have given him an edge and when the rest of the G League is at its most depleted due to call-ups and fewer assignment players.

In his Ignite season, Green posted a 15.4 PER with 61.3 percent true shooting; Holland had a 15.8 PER on 56.5 percent. The shooting numbers were bad, but Green played on a more coherent team and thus also was only asked to carry a 23 percent usage rate at this level, not Holland’s 28 percent. Also, keep in mind that Holland’s free-throw rate was pretty massive for a perimeter player; four free-throw attempts per game may not seem like much until you remember the G League shoots one attempt that counts for two points. Only 10 players in the whole G League matched his rate. And even with Holland’s brutal early turnover issues, his assist and turnover rates were essentially the same as Green’s age-18 season.

Green would be the No. 1 pick in this draft; I think Holland should be too.

The other reason to like Holland is his defense. His 3.5 percent steal rate stands out; some iffy gambles spiked the total, but there is real talent (and fire) on this end. Overall, his rates of rebounds, steals and blocks compare favorably to former Ignite lottery pick Dyson Daniels, for instance, who has now become an awesome defender at the NBA level. I think Holland has similar pathways to being elite at this end."

Holland would be the most likely choice if the Hawks pulled a surprise on draft night, but there are two other players I would slot right behind him. Forward Matas Buzelis and Guard Stephon Castle are both talented players and could end up being the best picks in the draft. Castle would be a great defensive fit next to Trae Young, but his offensive game is a big question. Buzelis is a big forward with playmaking ability and defensive capabilities and I think he will be a really solid player.

At the end of the day, I still think Atalnta is going to stay at No. 1 and take either Sarr, Clingan, or Risacher. They could also move back for Clingan if the right opportunity arises, though that is just speculation right now.

Still, this draft does provide the opportunity for the franchise to catch everyone off guard.