Best and Worst Case Scenarios For The Atlanta Hawks This Season

The Hawks are hoping to compete for a playoff spot this season, but what are their ceiling outcomes and what is the floor for this team?

Apr 6, 2026; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Hawks head coach Quin Snyder reacts on the sideline during the game against the New York Knicks at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The NBA season seems far away right now, but training camp is nearly three weeks away and the preseason will shortly follow that. One of the big storylines of the upcoming season will be the Eastern Conference and how competitive it appears to be heading into the year.

The Knicks are the defending champions; Philadelphia acquired Jaylen Brown and LeBron James this offseason; Miami traded for Giannis Antetokounmpo; Toronto hopes to eventually land Kawhi Leonard, and teams like Detroit, Cleveland, Orlando, Charlotte, and even Washington hope to make the playoffs. The Atlanta Hawks are among those teams, and they are coming off a promising end to the previous season and were the only team that beat the Knicks multiple times in a playoff series.

The Hawks stayed patient this offseason and are more or less running it back, with some minor changes that include drafting three rookies and trading for depth pieces such as Lu Dort and Aaron Wiggins. While it won't be easy, Atlanta is expected to be in the mix for a Top Six seed in the conference.

When looking at the upcoming season, what are the best and worst case scenarios for the Hawks this season, not accounting for injury?

Best Case: Atlanta wins 50-55 games, is a Top Four seed in the East, and makes it to the Eastern Conference Finals

Apr 30, 2026; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Hawks forward Jalen Johnson (1) shoots against the New York Knicks in the third quarter during game six of the first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

While every team's best case scenario is winning the NBA Finals, I am being more realistic here. I think if things go right for Atlanta, there is a path to the Eastern Conference Finals, even if it is narrow.

For this scenario to happen, one of the things the Hawks will need continued internal improvement from the young players on their roster.

Jalen Johnson needs to elevate from being a Third-Team All-NBA player to being a first or second team player, Nickeil Alexander-Walker has to take a step as an offensive player when it comes to shot creation, Dyson Daniels needs to become a more reliable shooter, and Onyeka Okongwu needs to show that last season's three-point shooting jump was not a fluke.

The second thing is that the Hawks need meaningful contributions from their new depth, including the rookies. They acquired Dort and Wiggins to improve a weak point on their team and they hope that Kingston Flemings will one day be a star and their future starting point. Jock Landale has to prove that what he did as the backup center towards the end of the season was no fluke because the Hawks don't have a clear third center they can trust right now.

Atlanta also needs to be a more consistent three point shooting team and find a way to cover their biggest defensive weakness which is rim protection.

Atlanta has the pieces to be an elite defensive team on the perimeter with Daniels, Dort, NAW, and Wiggins, and they are going to be a nightmare for teams to line up against every night. They might not be a top-five offense in the league, but I think they can be a top-ten offense and a top-five defense in the league and get home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs.

Worst Case Scenario: Atlanta stagnates or regresses in a tougher Eastern Conference, wins 40-42 games, and loses in the play-in tournament

Apr 30, 2026; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Hawks head coach Quin Snyder on the sideline against the New York Knicks in the first quarter during game six of the first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Like the best case scenario, you can always say the worst case scenario for a team is to be the worst team in the NBA and bottoming out. That won't happen with this Hawks team, but there is a path for them to be a disappointing team.

If last season's surge proves to be more because the Hawks were playing against an easy schedule, the returing players don't take steps forward, the rookies are not ready to contribute, Dort and Wiggins struggle, Landale proves to be an overpaid backup, and CJ McCollum shows a real decline in his age 35 season, this is the recipe for the Hawks struggling this upcoming season and finding their way back in the play-in tournament.

The rim protection issues and three-point shooting could be problems for the Hawks this season. Okongwu is a good defender but his size can provide problems with rim protection and Landale is not exactly a strong defender. If Flemings is not ready to contribute, that could lead to lead guard problems when it comes to shot creation, as McCollum and NAW are not strong passers.