How the Proposed NBA Draft Lottery Rules Would Affect the Atlanta Hawks in 2027

The Atlanta Hawks have the No. 8 pick in the upcoming 2026 NBA Draft, and while the Hawks were hoping that the trade they made with the New Orleans Pelicans would net them the No. 1 overall pick (or at least in the top four), it is still a huge win for a team that made the playoffs and has a lot of young talent.

While that is the most notorious trade the Hawks have made with the Pelicans recently, it is not the only one.

Let me take you back to the summer of 2024. The Hawks had won the NBA Draft Lottery and selected Zaccharie Risacher and had a decision to make with the guard duo of Dejounte Murray and Trae Young. The Hawks opted to trade Murray to the New Orleans Pelicans for Dyson Daniels, Larry Nance Jr, E.J. Liddell, and two first-round picks. One of those picks is a 2027 1st round pick that is the least favorable of the Pelicans and Bucks selections, which is top four protected, while the Pelicans get the most favorable of the two selections.

When the Hawks made the trade and acquired this pick, the lottery rules were more straight forward. However, it appears that lottery reform is on its way and there are going to be new rules in place.

How might these new rules affect Atlanta next offseason?

New Rules

With the new proposed lottery rules, there are going to be 16 teams in the NBA Draft Lottery instead of 14. The teams with the three worst records in the league will have a 5.4% chance to win the lottery, 4-10 will have an 8.1% chance, teams that are seeded 9th and 10th in each conference's play-in tournament will have a 5.4% chance, and the loser of the two 7 vs 8 play in games will have just a 2.7% chance to win the lottery. All 16 picks will be decided by the lottery (was just the top four in years past).

The bottom three records can pick no lower than 12th, while every other team could land from 1st to 16th. Also, teams that trade picks cannot protect them if they are 12-15, teams cannot have the No. 1 pick in back-to-back drafts, and a team cannot have a top-five pick in three consecutive drafts.

However, there is an interesting detail that emerged yesterday in a report from Yahoo Sports Kevin O'Connor:

"Front offices have been wondering: Does the streak attach to the team holding the pick on lottery night or to the original team whose record is attached to the pick?

The streak attaches to the original team, according to league sources. In other words, if Team A has Team B’s pick in the 2027 draft as a result of a trade and that Team B pick lands first, then Team B’s own pick in 2028 would not be eligible to land first, whether it’s retained by Team B or owned by a different team. But Team A, by virtue of selecting first using Team B’s pick in 2027, would still be eligible to pick first in 2028 with its own pick or any other team’s pick."

So if the new 3-2-1 lottery proposal does pass, how does it affect Atlanta?

The truth is, not very much and it actually may hurt the Hawks more than it helps them.

2027 is the final draft that the Hawks owe any more picks to the San Antonio Spurs as part of the 2022 Dejounte Murray trade, and it is an unprotected pick. If Atlanta were to be in the lottery next season, the Spurs would have a solid chance at the No. 1 overall pick (again). Since the pick Atlanta owns from New Orleans is top four protected, the highest pick Atlanta could hope for is No. 5. Also, 2027 is not expected to be a strong draft at the top.

Since Atlanta did not win the lottery this season (and the pick is top four protected) and they don't pick in the top five in this lottery as well, these rules are not going to affect Atlanta's selection in 2027. If the lesser of the two picks is outside of the top four, it belongs to Atlanta. If both the Pelicans and Bucks are picking in the top four, Atlanta will not have a selection in the draft unless they acquire one.

The Hawks could potentially have a nice draft pick in 2027, even if the draft is not considered to be elite at the top. They could also not have a pick and when you combine that possibility with the quality of the draft, it opens up the possibility of the pick being moved this offseason.

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