Atlanta Hawks vs Toronto Raptors: Game Preview, Injury Report, Projected Starting Lineups for Today's Matchup

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2026 couldn't come quickly enough for the Atlanta Hawks.
In the month of December, the Hawks went 3-11. The return of Trae Young did not uplift the team as the front office likely hoped as they have yet to win a game since his return to the lineup following his quad injury. Fortunately, Kristaps Porzingis has been able to return to the lineup and that's coincided with two straight wins for the Hawks.
They blew out the Timberwolves, who are currently the No. 6 seed in the Western Conference, and followed it up with another commanding win over the No. 2 seeded New York Knicks. That's two straight wins over current playoff teams. It should be noted that the Minnesota victory is more impressive due to New York being down three of their seven best players, but it's a nice change of pace from the lackluster defense and inconsistent offense the Hawks demonstrated throughout December. Encouragingly, they held both New York and Minnesota to under 110 points.
The Raptors present a different challenge. They're currently 4th in the Eastern Conference and Scottie Barnes is having arguably the best season of his career. However, they are somewhat exploitable at the moment. Toronto is coming off a narrow loss to the Jokic-less Nuggets and they've struggled to find a consistent solution at center due to Jakob Poetl's injury. This is a good opportunity for the Hawks to get another Eastern Conference win and start climbing back into a playoff position after their disastrous December showing. The Hawks also have yet to beat Toronto this season - the Raptors are 2-0 against the Hawks and handed them a blowout loss in their series opener. Therefore, this could also be a statement win if Atlanta can rise to the occasion.
By the Numbers

Atlanta's offense has been mostly solid over the past few games, but they'll need to be at their best in a matchup wth a tough Raptors defense. They are 9th in points, 6th in FG%, 5th in 3P%, 22nd in FT%, 25th in rebounds (27th in OREB, 20th in DREB), 1st in assists, and 17th in turnovers per game. They're 15th in offensive rating this year.
The defense still has tons of room for improvement even if they have performed well in back-to-back games. The Hawks' defense ranks 24th in points allowed, 20th in FG% allowed, 11th in 3P% allowed, 26th in rebounds allowed, 6th in steals, and 15th in blocks. They're 17th in defensive rating this year.
Toronto's offense has been a problem this year. The Raptors are 23rd in points, 15th in FG%, 21st in 3P%, 23rd in FT%, 22nd in rebounds (17th in OREB, 20th in DREB), 4th in assists, and 13th in turnovers per game. They're 21st in offensive rating this year.
The strength of their defense is where a decent portion of Toronto's success is coming from. They are 4th in points allowed, 8th in FG% allowed, 3rd in 3P% allowed, 16th in rebounds allowed, 12th in steals, and 21st in blocks. They're 5th in defensive rating this year.
Three Reasons The Hawks Can Win This Game

Last time the Hawks played Toronto, they lost a defensive battle where neither team shot particularly well from deep (both under 32% as a team). However, the Raptors had the benefit of Jakob Poetl's presence in the paint. Scottie Barnes is a really versatile defender and teams are shooting 5.2% worse at the rim with him on the court (88th percentile among all bigs). The loss of Poetl is keenly felt when looking at his rebounding impact. Per Cleaning the Glass, the OREB% of opposing teams fell by 4.6% when Poetl was on the court. That's in the 93rd percentile among all centers and if the game follows a similar script to the past matchup, getting rebounds, limiting points in the paint and creating extra possessions is going to be a priority. The Raptors are at a disadvantage in all three phases.
Dyson Daniels is coming off one of his best defensive games of the year as he completely neutralized Jalen Brunson. The Knicks point guard only took three free throws on the night and scored 24 points on an inefficient 10-23 shooting line. The combination of Daniels and Okongwu to protect at the rim seemed to be really effective in bothering Brunson and it would be nice if the Hawks can have similar success against Immanuel Quickley. The Raptors' offense is significantly better in the halfcourt when he's on the floor - they average 7.4 points more per 100 plays (91st percentile among all guards). Out of Toronto's starting five, he also has the best TOV% relative to his position, suggesting that he is the Raptors best' ball-handler. Keeping him from driving to the rim and forcing him to attempt a bunch of contested threes is Atlanta's best chance to keep him uncomfortable.
Jalen Johnson's defense was a big problem for the Hawks throughout December, but tonight's matchup is a chance for him to defy that reputation. He'll have a decent amount of opportunities to take on Toronto's best player in Barnes and he's actually performed rather well in that matchup. Of the 199 possessions he's guarded Barnes for, Johnson's held Scottie to around 13 points and six assists per 75 possessions on 63.6 TS%. The efficiency becomes less important when he's holding Scottie to such few point totals and it's nice to see that the Hawks have a good chance of neutralizing Barnes in this game.
Three Reasons The Hawks Might Lose This Game

The Raptors struggled to shoot against the Hawks in their last matchup (31.6% from deep as a team), but Gradey Dick was one of the few players that was able to provide some spacing. He shot 3-4 from deep and finished as a +7 in the game. Furthermore, Toronto's offense is also much better in his minutes off the bench. They score six more points per 100 possessions when Dick is on the court (88th percentile among all wings). If he gets hot, he's certainly a player that the Hawks are going to need to account for.
Although the Hawks were able to dominate the Knicks in the paint due to their lack of available centers (58-46 edge for points in the paint), the Raptors won't be as easy of an opponent. Specifically, the combination of Barnes and backup center Sandro Mamukelashvili has been rather strong. In the 384 minutes they've both been on the court, the Raptors have an excellent 106.9 defensive rating and a +6.4 net rating. It'll be interesting to see if Toronto gives that duo more minutes against a Hawks team that might really only have one center in Onyeka Okongwu if Porzingis can't play.
One factor that could swing the game in Toronto's favor is the effectiveness of Atlanta's strategy for slowing down RJ Barrett. Barrett has been extremely important towards Toronto's offense - their halfcourt offense is a staggering +10.7 points per 100 possessions when he plays and he gets fouled on 15.5% of his shots (92nd percentile among all wings). The defense still isn't much to be concerned about, but Atlanta's perimeter defense has been leaky all season and they might struggle to slow down Barrett if he gets a favorable matchup.
Injury Report
The Hawks are on a back-to-back and have not released their injury report yet.
Jakob Poetl is out for the Raptors.
How to Watch
Here is how you can watch tonight's game:
Tip-off time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern Time
Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, CAN
Projected Starting Lineups
Hawks
G - Trae Young
G - Dyson Daniels
F - Zaccharie Risacher
F - Jalen Johnson
C - Onyeka Okongwu
Raptors
G - Immanuel Quickley
G- RJ Barrett
F- Brandon Ingram
F- Ochai Agbaji
C- Scottie Barnes
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Rohan Raman has been covering the Atlanta Hawks for On SI since June 2024. He has been a contributor to Georgia Tech Athletics for On SI since May 2022 and enjoys providing thoughtful analysis of football, basketball and baseball at the collegiate and professional level.