Hawks vs Nuggets: Game Preview, Injury Report, Projected Starting Lineup for Tonight's Matchup

The Atlanta Hawks received a tough break before their last game against the Los Angeles Clippers as star forward Jalen Johnson was scratched right before tip-off. He joined Trae Young and Kristaps Porzingis on the bench, which transformed an extremely winnable game into a much tougher task. Without three of their best offense players, it was always going to be a significant challenge for the Hawks to pull out a win and it certainly was a challenge.

Atlanta had their worst offensive rating for a single game at 95.8 in a dismal 115-92 loss. James Harden and Kawhi Leonard combined for 48 points as they snapped a five-game losing streak by handidly taking care of the Hawks. The trio of Zaccharie Risacher, Onyeka Okongwu and Mo Gueye combined for 18 points on 7-25 shooting. The Hawks got 21 points from Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Asa Newell had a respectable 11-point outing off the bench, but it'd be hard to say that there were a lot of positives from the Clippers game for the Hawks.

Fortunately, they'll get a chance to quickly turn the page in their game today against the Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets have been excellent to start this year - their record of 15-6 is good for the current No. 5 seed in the Western Conference. While that may not sound impressive, the Nuggets are only 0.5 games behind the current No. 2 seed in the Los Angeles Lakers. There's not a lot of separation at the top of the West and it seems like a foregone conclusion that the Nuggets will be in the mix to represent the conference in the Finals.

Obviously, the OKC Thunder are the favorites to win the West, but the Nuggets have a MVP contender in Nikola Jokic who's still very much in his prime. He's averaging 28.7 points, 12.6 rebounds and 11.1 assists on a career-high 72.4 TS%. The Nuggets have also gotten stellar seasons from Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon to start the year, although Gordon is currently sidelined with an injury. It's a reasonably good time to catch the Nuggets, but things get significantly tougher if Johnson can't go for the second game in a row.

By the Numbers

Two straight poor performances from the Hawks are going to drop their season numbers on offense. At the moment, they're 18th in points, 10th in FG%, 9th in 3P%, 21st in FT%, 26th in rebounds (26th in OREB, 18th in DREB), 1st in assists and 17h in turnovers per game. They're 20th in offensive rating on the year and a matchup with the Nuggets' struggling defense could be a perfect way to right the sip.

The defense has been a bit better as of late, but Atlanta could certainly use some improvements on that end. On a per-game basis, the Hawks rank 12th in points allowed, 12th in FG% allowed, 6th in 3P% allowed, 24th in rebounds allowed, 5th in steals and 10th in blocks. They're 9th in defensive rating on the year, which is a very good mark considering how many lineup shifts the Hawks have gone through.

The Nuggets will have an average to elite offense for as long as Nikola Jokic continues to play basketball. At the moment, they're 1st in points, 1st in FG%, 2nd in 3P%, 4th in FT%, 9th in rebounds (16th in OREB, 6th in DREB), 5th in assists and 4th in turnovers per game. They have a juggernaut of an offense and it'll be extremely interesting to see how the Hawks approach this game on defense.

Their defense has been significantly more suspect over the last few games, but the larger sample size indicates that they're reasonably solid on that end. They're 15th in points allowed, 11th in FG% allowed, 5th in 3P% allowed, 3rd in rebounds allowed, 28th in steals and 25th in blocks. Their lack of depth and atheleticism is why they're 27th in defensive rating.

Three Reasons Atlanta Can Win This Game

Jokic, Nikola Jokic, Hawks, Atlanta Hawks, NB — Jan 1, 2025; Denver, Colorado, USA; Atlanta Hawks guard Dyson Daniels (5) defends on Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic (15) in the second quarter at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Without Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun in the game, the Nuggets' defense has been noticeably worse. In the 478 minutes that Braun and Gordon have been off the court, the Nuggets have a defensive rating of 121.7. For some context, that would be the 29th-best defensive rating in basketball across the 30 NBA teams. Denver's defense is not at its best right now and teams have been able to exploit that. Both the Kings and Mavericks, who have some of the most flawed offensive structures in the NBA, hung 125+ points on Denver and there are not a ton of ways the Nuggets can go about fixing it. This could be a massive Nickeil Alexander-Walker game as he's been killing perimeter defenders all year en route to career-highs in both points (20.4 points per game) and TS% 60%).

The Hawks had no answer for Jokic in both of the games that they played against him last season. However, Atlanta was still playing Clint Capela and Garrison Mathews in that game. Assuming Jalen Johnson can suit up, the Hawks are in a much stronger position to match Jokic's size in the paint with a combination of Onyeka Okongwu and Johnson. Even though it's almost impossible to completely take Jokic out of the game, the mobility and defensive presence of Okongwu in combination with Johnson's ability to play good help defense and grab rebounds might give Jokic some problems.

At the moment, it's hard to see how the Nuggets would defend Jalen Johnson assuming that he plays. They'd be able to match Johnson with Aaron Gordon normally, but he's not going to be avaliable for them tonight. The likely answer for Denver is to put either breakout wing Spencer Jones or reliable wing Cam Johnson on Johnson and that's a big mismatch. Jalen has been incredible as both as a scorer and playmaker, averaging 23.2 points, 10 rebounds and 7.7 assists on 63.7 TS%. If he plays, he's set up for another monster performance.

Three Reasons Atlanta Might Lose This Game

Atlanta Hawks, Hawks, NBA, Jokic, Nikola Joki — Jan 1, 2025; Denver, Colorado, USA; Atlanta Hawks guard Dyson Daniels (5) an center Clint Capela (15) and Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic (15) in the second quarter at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Rebounding has been a consistent issue for the Hawks this season, but they did an excellent job of hustling on the boards against the 76ers. It was critical for their eventual win over Philly and it showed that the team can play better than the 26th best rebounding team in the NBA. However, the Nuggets are a different animal entirely when it comes to rebounding. They're 9th in rebounds per game and particularly good at ending possessions on defense through their rebounding (6th in defensive rebounding per game). Atlanta cannot allow the Nuggets to beat them on the boards, but it's going to be difficult to stop.

The Jokic-Murray combo is about as unstoppable as it's ever been and the Hawks have struggled to defend it in the past. With Murray and Jokic on the court, the Nuggets have a 132.3 offensive rating over 469 minutes. Even though the Nuggets lead the league in offensive rating, they'd shatter their own mark of 124.2 with that. The Hawks did not have Nickeil Alexander-Walker last season when they played Murray, but the odds are firmly against Atlanta being able to slow down this lethal duo.

One player to keep an eye on for tonight is Cam Johnson. The Nuggets forward was brought in to be a more dynamic replacement for Michael Porter Jr, but it looked like a huge mistake to move on from MPJ due to Johnson's slow start. In his last six games, he's made 2+ threes in four of the last five games. He's a great shooter and the Hawks cannot afford to let him get going and give the Nuggets offensive viability beyond Jokic/Murray.

Injury Report

Atlanta Hawks: Jalen Johnson (right calf tightness) and Kristaps Porzingis (return to competition reconditioning) are both questionable. Trae Young and Jacob Toppin are both out.

Denver Nuggets: Aaron Gordon, Christian Braun, and Julian Strawther are all out.

How to Watch

Here is how you can watch tonight's game:

Tip-off time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern Time

Location: State Farm Arena, Atlanta, GA

Where to Watch: FanDuel Sports Network

Projected Starting Lineups

Hawks

G - Dyson Daniels

G - Nickeil Alexander-Walker

F - Zaccharie Risacher

F - Jalen Johnson

C - Onyeka Okongwu

Nuggets

G - Jamal Murray

G - Peyton Watson

F - Cam Johnson

F - Spencer Jones

C - Nikola Jokic