Spread & Over/Under Predictions For Atlanta vs Orlando

After a dismal opening night performance vs the Raptors, the Atlanta Hawks will be trying to right the ship tonight on the road vs Orlando. While this is still just an early season game, this is a chance to see two teams who were projected to be among the East's best face each other for the first time this season.

The Hawks offense will have to be better tonight, but it is not going to be easy. The Magic have been one of the NBA's better defensive teams over the past couple of seasons and have the size and physicality that has bothered the Hawks. Can the find a way to solve that tonight?

Atlanta is also going to have to shore up its rebounding and transition defense. Those were the two biggest factors in the loss to the Raptors on Wednesday night.

Who wins?

Oct 22, 2025; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Hawks forward Jalen Johnson (1) drives to the basket against the Toronto Raptors in the first quarter at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Our own Rohan Raman gave his three keys to the game for the Hawks if they hope to get a win tonight:

"It seemed like almost everything that could go wrong went wrong for the Hawks, but the really staggering part of their loss was their struggles in transition. They allowed 1.43 points per possession in transition and the Raptors had 30 transition opportunities. That's a problem that needs to be fixed because the Magic scored 1.48 points per possession in transition and play at a fairly comparable pace to the Raptors. After falling short against Toronto, the Hawks should be more prepared for how Toronto picked on them in transition. Therefore, it's probable that the transition defense should regress back to being more normal. Whether it's Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Dyson Daniels, Zaccharie Risacher or Jalen Johnson, there are many wings on Atlanta's roster that can keep up with high-pace teams. Atlanta leads the league in pace and it would be surprising for the Hawks to lose to a team two night in a row because they got outran on defense.

Atlanta's defensive infrastructure should also mitigate some of the problems that the Magic gave them last year. Last year, Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner were able to blow by their defender and put a ton of pressure on the rim due to their size. Things should be a little harder for Orlando with Kristaps Porzingis protecting the paint. The Hawks are currently 8th in blocks, so it wouldn't be all that surprising to see the paint defense be a hard unit for Orlando to crack. Furthermore, they have multiple defenders they can rotate to match up with Franz. Even though Alexander-Walker didn't have his best game last season, his IQ and instincts are a tough combination for any wing to beat.

This is also a matchup where Jalen Johnson has thrived in the past. He continued a summer of preseason excellence into one of the few solid performances of the season opener. Johnson tallied 22 points, eight assists, and seven rebounds in nearly 35 minutes of game action last night. That is his second straight game against Orlando with 20+ points, 7+ rebounds and 7+ assists. The difficulty of the passes he's making is also ratcheting up as he becomes more confident, which bodes well for Atlanta's chances of taking down one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference."

The Hawks will be underdogs on the road tonight, as the Magic are currently 5-point favorites according to the latest odds from the Fanduel Sportsbook, and the over/under is set at 235t.5.

I think that the Hawks are better than the team that they showed on Wednesday, but Orlando is a difficult matchup for them. I anticipate a bounce back shooting night from the Hawks, but they won't be able to score enough against this Orlando defense. Magic win a close one.

Final Score: Orlando 116, Atlanta 111 (ORL -5 and Under)

Who wins?

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