Spread & Over/Under Predictions For Hawks vs Raptors

Who will win the matchup tonight between the Hawks and the Raptors?

Oct 16, 2025; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Hawks guard Trae Young (11) dribbles against Houston Rockets forward Jeff Green (32) during the first half at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images | Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

Atlanta Hawks basketball is back tonight.

The Hawks begin their highly anticipated regular season with a home matchup against the Toronto Raptors. Atlanta comes into this game completely healthy and it will be the regular season debuts for new additions like Kristaps Porzingis, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Asa Newell and Luke Kennard.

Toronto is an interesting team heading into the season. Scottie Barnes is one of the league's best young talents, this will be the Raptors debut for Brandon Ingra, and Immanuel Quickley is hoping to stay healthy this season and Toronto is going to need him to. This team's shooting is very questionable heading into the season and Quickley might be the only starter who is going to be able to reliably knock down threes.

Preview

Oct 16, 2025; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Hawks center Kristaps Porzingis (8) goes to the basket between Houston Rockets forward Jeff Green (32) and guard Reed Sheppard (15) during the first half at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images | Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

Our own Rohan Raman broke down this game and what some keys might be for both teams:

"Last season, the Hawks still had a respectable offense despite missing their second best scorer for the majority of the season. They finished 5th in points, 14th in FG%, 18th in 3P%, 18th in FT%, 14th in rebounds (9th in OREB), 2nd in assists and 26th in turnovers per game. Atlanta didn't have particularly good shooting, but they were able to generate a decent amount of second chances. It also doesn't hurt to have one of the best playmakers in the NBA running the offense in Trae Young.



However, their 41-41 record was in large part due to having one of the worst defenses in the NBA. On a per-game basis, Atlanta finished 27th in points allowed, 28th in FG% allowed, 28th in 3P% allowed, 12th in rebounds allowed, 2nd in steals and 12th in blocks. Dyson Daniels led the NBA in steals and earned an All-Defensive First Team nod, but it wasn't enough to keep the Hawks' defense afloat.



Toronto's offense really struggled last year. That shouldn't come as much of a surprise considering their roster construction, but they also had injuries to two of their top three scorers. Immanuel Quickley only played in 33 games and Scottie Barnes missed 25 games. Accordingly, they finished 23rd in points, 20th in FG%, 23rd in 3P%, 29th in FT%, 10th in rebounds (4th in OREB), 7th in assists and 24th in turnovers per game.



Their defense kept them in games throughout the second half of the year as they made a push for the play-in tournament. On a per-game basis, the Raptors finished 18th in points allowed, 14th in FG% allowed, 4th in 3P% allowed, 21st in rebounds allowed, 16th in steals and 28th in blocks. They weren't an elite unit, but Toronto did a good job of tightening up on opposing shooters."

Who wins?

Spread and Over/Under: The Hawks will be favorites at home tonight, as they are currently 5.5-point favorites according to the latest odds from the Fanduel Sportsbook, and the over/under is set at 237.

With games against Orlando and Oklahoma City coming at the end of the week, it would be beneficial for Atlanta to start 1-0 with a home win tonight. The Hawks depth is more trustworthy and I think they are the more talented team.

Final Score: Hawks 117, Raptors 112 (Raptors +5.5 and Under)

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