Who Should The Atlanta Hawks Prefer To Play In The First Round - Knicks or Cavaliers?

It's pretty likely that the Hawks will be playing one of these two teams in the first round. Should they have a preference?

Apr 10, 2026; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers guard Jaylon Tyson (20) tries to drive to the basket against Atlanta Hawks guard CJ McCollum (3) during the second half at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images | Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

The Atlanta Hawks are in the enviable position of having a guaranteed four games to prove themselves in the postseason bracket. Despite jockeying for position with the back half of the playoff bracket following the All-Star bracket, they earned themselves a spot as a guaranteed top-six seed that are poised to play either the Cleveland Cavaliers or New York Knicks in the first round.

There's very little the Hawks can do to affect this outcome because the only way they can get the No. 6 seed is if the Heat win tomorrow's game against Atlanta, followed by a Celtics and Raptors win. Even if they tank the game tomorrow against Miami, they still have to rely on two other results in order to fall to the No. 6 seed and take on the Knicks.

I'd argue that this is also the worst outcome that could happen. Atlanta should try decently hard to win tomorrow's game against Miami because the prospect of playing Cleveland rather than playing New York is more enticing if the Hawks want to get past the first round.

Harden's History

Apr 10, 2026; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers guard James Harden (1) watches a shot against the Atlanta Hawks during the first half at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images | Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

History tells us that incorporating James Harden halfway through the season onto a team that has hopes of a championship is a venture that falls short.

He's been traded mid-season twice in his career. Both times, Harden was dealing with the effects of a hamstring strain that limited his ability to drive to the rim. That left him at a disadvantage in the playoffs and he wasn't able to deliver consistent impact in the postseason. This season, Harden's been playing through a fractured right thumb that he suffered on February 24th. He's held up remarkably well since being traded to the Cavaliers and he's actually been more efficient even if his points per game have taken a slight hit. As a Cavalier, he's averaged 20.5 points on 46.6/43.5/84 shooting splits.

However, it's entirely possible that he re-aggravates the thumb injury again in the postseason and can't contribute to the Cavaliers' offense in the way they need him to. Furthermore, he's not exactly the most consistent postseason player and the Hawks have been able to largely hold him in check with Dyson Daniels in the fold. Between 2024-2026, Harden averages 15.5 points, 8.6 assists and a whopping six turnovers when guarded by Daniels on 174 possessions. That's a pretty large sample size to show that Daniels has a good chance of mitigating his impact in a postseason setting.

Playing With Pace

Apr 10, 2026; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Hawks guard Gabe Vincent (4) tries to go between Cleveland Cavaliers guards Craig Porter Jr. (9) and Dennis Schroder (8) during the first half at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images | Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

Despite winning 64 games and clinching the No. 1 seed in dominant fashion, the Cavaliers lost in the second round of the playoffs because they couldn't handle the speed at which the Pacers played and the physicality of the matchup. They also struggled to match Indiana's shooting prowess and had no answer for Tyrese Haliburton in the clutch.

The Hawks probably don't have a Haliburton-level performer in the fourth quarter on this team. However, some of the same elements that gave Cleveland fits last season are present with this Hawks team. Indiana passed the ball really well, played at a breakneck pace and didn't turn the ball over often. This season, the Hawks finished 4th in AST%, 7th in TOV% and 6th in pace.

While the Hawks don't have as impressive of an offense as the Pacers did (14th in offensive rating compared to 9th), they are a better defense (9th in defensive rating compared to 14th for Indiana). They're also 6th in 3P%, so there's an abundance of shooters to deploy against a suspect Cavs perimeter defense. Cleveland is 26th in opponent 3P% and 21st in opponent 3PA.

Nightmare Knicks?

Apr 6, 2026; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; New York Knicks guard Jalen Brunson (11) reacts after making a three point shot against the Atlanta Hawks during the second half at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images | Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

In my opinion, the Knicks are a very bad matchup for the Hawks in the first round. That might change after some playoff hardening for both sides, but this iteration of the Knicks has been a challenge for the Hawks to solve.

New York is a dominant rebounding team - they're 7th in total rebounds per game, but they also employ two of the best rebounding bigs in basketball. Karl-Anthony Towns isn't the most physical postseason player, but he's averaging 11.9 rebounds a game this season. That's the second-best mark in the NBA.

Mitchell Robinson is arguably the best offensive rebounding center in the league, averaging 8.1 offensive rebounds per 36 minutes. His rim protection also covers up for KAT's deficiencies on that end. Atlanta just doesn't have the size or rebounding talent to compete with that. In their last three games, the Knicks have grabbed 50+ rebounds twice. This just isn't a strength of Atlanta's roster, and New York is well-equipped to take advantage. Factor in the injury to Jock Landale and it's pretty likely that they'll be able to severely limit Onyeka Okongwu's effectiveness on the boards.

The Knicks are also well-positioned to match Atlanta's strengths, while the Hawks can't really take advantage of their weaknesses. New York has struggled with fast, athletic guards who can create their own shot and punish teams from outside. Players like Tyrese Maxey, Tyrese Haliburton, and Donovan Mitchell have all had big games against the Knicks this season, and shooting guards average the most points per game against the Knicks this season (29 points per game).

Nickeil Alexander-Walker has been pretty good against New York in the regular season, but this is also his first postseason as a second option. It's hard to predict how he'll fare against them. Atlanta's strengths are running in transition, making good passes, and stretching the floor. New York has tons of wings to keep up with them, a lot of capable defenders in the postseason and elite spacing to match Atlanta.

Dyson Daniels is one of the better options for guarding Jalen Brunson, and it's exciting to see what Jalen Johnson can do against OG Anunoby, but it's hard to compete with New York's playoff experience and team construction in the first round. Brunson, Mikal Bridges, Josh Hart, OG Anunoby, KAT, Robinson and Deuce McBride have all played pivotal roles in playoff series, while Landry Shamet is a veteran with tons of postseason experience.

Conversely, the Cavaliers still haven't made it out of the second round in the Donovan Mitchell era and their players are significantly less tested. That doesn't mean they'll be pushovers, but there's a lot more unknowns with this Cleveland team that they'll need to figure out on the fly. That plays into Atlanta's favor and gives them a better chance of advancing past the first round for the first time since 2020-21.