Why Jalen Johnson Should Go In The Top Five Of A 2021 NBA Re-Draft

Jalen Johnson has been a really interesting case study since being drafted in the 2021 NBA Draft.

Taking into account that he was selected outside of the draft lottery, he's been a massive success. This season, he's averaging 20.6 points, 8.6 rebounds and 5.0 assists on 2.4 turnovers and a career-high 63.4 TS%. The absence of Trae Young has put him into a role as the #1 option and to date, he's averaged 20+ points, 10+ rebounds and 5+ assists in two of the three games Atlanta's played in since Young's injury.

However, he's only played over 60 games one time in his career. He's been consistently unavailable due to injuries and that has sapped into his overall stature in the league. Even though his numbers are productive, there's a lot of other players from his draft class who many put above him in large part due to injuries.

With that being said, a re-evaluation of the 2021 NBA Draft suggests that he should have gone much earlier than the 20th overall pick. Bleacher Report's Dan Favale seems to agree. He had Johnson going with the 7th overall pick to the Warriors in a recent re-draft exercise and said this about the Hawks forward.

"Jalen Johnson's "Does a lot of everything" portfolio fuels top-seven placement that might represent his floor. The driving and finishing are divine. He has more mid-range touch than advertised. His handle and vision have even reached the point where the half-court offense can be run through him for stretches at a time. Checkered availability in years past and a cold streak from three to start 2025-26 are just about the only concerns. Well, that, and this year's on-off splits."

The injuries and on-off splits are certainly concerning and there's no getting around that. However, I think it's worth considering whether Johnson deserves to be selected even higher than the 7th pick. If he stays healthy, I believe the case can be made that he deserved to be a top-five selection in the 2021 NBA Draft (with current knowledge).

In the 36 games Johnson played last season, he averaged 18 points, 10 rebounds and five assists on 56 TS%. For some perspective, Johnson was one of only nine forwards last season who averaged 5+ assists a game. His AST% of 20.4% and AST:USG ratio of 0.93 ranked in the 89th percentile of all forwards last season. He did struggle with turnovers as his TOV% of 15.1% ranked in the ninth percentile. That being said, he's one of only seven wings who averaged 5+ assists per game while turning the ball over under 3 times a game. Furthermore, he was 4th among all forwards for rim assists, which are assists that led to made baskets at the rim. He excels at finding cutters to the basket and that's a very rare skill for forwards to have. It could also be argued that Johnson's teammates didn't always do a good job of converting on his passes.

Unsurprisingly, the Hawks forward is able to put a ton of pressure on the rim due to his athleticism. He attempted 6.8 shots at the rim per game last season, which was in the 98th percentile relative to forwards. However, one part of his game that can stand to improve is his mid-range game. He attempted 4.6 short midrange shots last season (92nd percentile), but only shot 37.2% on those shots (31st percentile among all forwards). If he can become a true three-level scorer, that'd put him in contention for being the best player on the Hawks next year.

His rebounding is also excellent. Johnson averaged a career-best 15.3 TREB% last season and pulled in 1.3 offensive rebounds per game as a non-center. That graded out in the 89th percentile among all forwards. However, he's a legitimate superstar when it comes to getting boards on defense and ending possessions for opposing offenses. Johnson posted a mind-boggling 21.4 DREB% last season, which was in the 99th percentile among forwards last season. The only forward who posted better numbers last season was Giannis. While it'll be hard for him to repeat those percentages over an entire season, it's a testament to how much impact Johnson brings on that end.

This year, Johnson's rebounding numbers have been down and his defense hasn't been as strong. However, he's also had the largest offensive workload of his career to begin this year. There's reason to believe that he can get close to his usual numbers once he adjusts to the responsibility.

In terms of who Johnson is competing with, I think the case can be made that he'd go higher in a re-draft than Austin Reaves and Franz Wagner. Reaves has been absolutely electric to start the year, averaging 31.1 points, 9.3 assists and 5.1 rebounds on 65.4 TS%. However, Johnson is a more valuable player due to the fact that he can be an additive player on defense in the frontcourt. Reaves can carry an offense, but his defense has been a consistent problem for multiple seasons and he's a target in the postseason because of it. Johnson does not have those problems.

The argument for elevating Johnson over Wagner is a bit harder to make because he's been a consistent 20+ points per game scorer, solid defender and credible floor spacer who is currently shooting a career-high 39.4% from three point range. However, Johnson's a much better rebounder and comparable passer to Wagner who also finishes better at the rim. In the past two seasons, he's shot above 84% at the rim while Wagner has never shot above 70% at the rim in his career. They do have a different shot diet, but converting on shots inside the paint is a much more stable form of offensive production than Wagner's fluctuations in shooting efficiency.

Even though there's a bit of projection baked into elevating Johnson as a top-five player from the 2021 Draft, he should be able to deliver on those projections if he can stay healthy this year. The ceiling is incredibly high with him and he seems destined for a multi-time All-Star career with a possible All-NBA ceiling as his highest outcome.

More Atlanta Hawks News:

Three Thoughts Following Hawks Blowout Win Over Orlando Magic

2026 NBA Mock Draft: Atlanta Hawks Add Star Duke Forward With Top Pick

Stock Up, Stock Down Following The Atlanta Hawks Win Against The Orlando Magic

Instant Takeaways From The Hawks Big Win Against The Magic