One Draft Prospect the Atlanta Hawks Will Have to Cross Off Their Board After Lottery Fall

Who will be out of reach for the Atlanta Hawks with the No. 8 overall pick?

Apr 4, 2026; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini guard Keaton Wagler (23) dribbles the ball against UConn Huskies guard Solo Ball (1) in the first half during a semifinal of the Final Four of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images | Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

The Atlanta Hawks had dreams of jumping into the top four of the 2026 NBA Draft, but they ended up falling to the 8th overall pick, which was their most statistically likely spot in the lottery.

With their fall to 8th overall, it is obvious that Atlanta is not going to have a chance to draft one of the four elite prospects in this draft, AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson, Cameron Boozer, and Caleb Wilson. This was the kind of star prospect that the Hawks were hoping to land, but the lottery balls did not fall their way.

The popular sentiment right now is that the Hawks will be able to sit tight at No. 8 and have the opportunity to take whoever is left of the four guards who are projected to go in the top ten. Keaton Wagler, Kingston Flemings, Darius Acuff, and Mikel Brown Jr are the players projected in the 5-8 range and of those four guards, I think that Wagler is the player that least likely to be there and in fact, I would be pretty shocked if he fell that far.

Wagler is a very interesting prospect who was not even on the NBA radar at this time a year ago. Wagler went from being a low-rated recruit to being the lead guard on what was arguably the top offense in college basketball and he helped get the Fighting Illini to the Final Four. The 6'6 guard shows flashes of being a similar type of player as Denver Nuggets guard Jamal Murray, which is the player that he most reminds me of.

The biggest question about Wagler is his defense and lack of burst and athleticism. Still, flashing the kind of upside that he does will make it hard for teams to pass on him.

It would not be a shock if Wagler comes off the board at No. 5 to the Los Angeles Clippers. While it might not be a perfect fit, Wagler and Darius Garland could form a dynamite duo on offense and be one of the best backcourts in the NBA, even though they are likely to have defensive limitations. He is seen as the best prospect on the board and the Clippers seem like the destination for him, though nothing in the draft can be taken for granted.

Even if the Clippers opt to pass on the talented scorer, the Brooklyn Nets and the Sacramento Kings don't seem likely to pass on him either. They both have big needs at the guard spots (and just talent in general) and Wagler is a cleaner prospect than the others. If he is on the board when either of those teams pick, it would not be surprising to see him get taken.

If the Hawks were to really like Wagler and feel like he is the player that they need to land, they are likely going to have to move up to get him. The question that the Hawks are going to have to ask themselves is what is the level of seperation between these prospects? I don't think there is much, but Onsi Saleh and the Hawks front office might feel differently.

Atlanta is still going to be in prime position to get a talented player in this draft, but I don't think that Keaton Wagler is likely to be on the board when it is time for Saleh and the Hawks to make a selection.