The Atlanta Hawks Made The Right Decision By Passing On Peyton Watson

Although the NBA offseason has slowed to a crawl, one of the Hawks' opponents in the Eastern Conference made two big moves recently that have significant implications for Atlanta.

The Cleveland Cavaliers signified they had something in the works by salary dumping Dennis Schroder to the Charlotte Hornets. They turned that new-found flexibility into a sign-and-trade for Denver Nuggets forward Peyton Watson and brought back James Harden on a three-year, $97 million dollar deal. Watson was signed to a four-year, $88 million dollar deal.

Per ESPN's Shams Charania, the Cavaliers shipped out wing Max Strus to the LA Clippers to make the salary work. Strus was a key starter for the Cavs that came up in several moments, most notably against the Pistons in the second round. Swapping Strus out for Watson and keeping the rest of the roste the same is an intriguing gamble for the Cavs to make.

BREAKING: Cleveland, Denver and the Clippers have agreed on a trade sending Peyton Watson to the Cavaliers, Max Strus to LA, and an unprotected 2031 Cavs first-round pick and a 2032 Kings second-rounder to the Nuggets, sources tell ESPN.

Watson will sign a new four-year, $88… pic.twitter.com/hXqL3JvsU4
— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) August 19, 2026

While the Cavs are the one who ultimately got a deal with Watson done, per ESPN's Dave McMenamin, Atlanta was one of the other teams that considered acquiring the young wing after his breakout year as of two weeks ago.

"The Atlanta Hawks, who did not resign Jonathan Kuminga, are also "serious candidates" to land Watson."

Clearly, general manager Onsi Saleh and Atlanta's front office decided that the market for Watson's services had gotten unreasonably expensive. Despite the tantalizing potential that he brings to the table, it's clear to see why they felt uneasy about making the aggressive commitment that the Cavs made. Watson showed exciting flashes last year, but I believe there are two main reasons why the Hawks made the right call by letting someone else take the gamble on his upside.

The Story of Watson's Stats

Hawks, Atlanta Hawks, NBA, Watson, Peyton Watso — Dec 5, 2025; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Denver Nuggets guard Peyton Watson (8) shoots against the Atlanta Hawks in the fourth quarter at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Last season, Watson averaged 14.6 points, 4.9 rebounds, 2.1 assists and 1.1 blocks on 49.1/41.1/73 shooting splits. He had career-highs across the board in points, rebounds and assists in just 54 games. A hamstring issue forced him to miss 25 games in the back half of the season and he re-aggravated it right before the postseason. Therefore, Watson was unable to showcase how his game would translate into a playoff setting.

In the regular season, there are several metrics that paint a rather favorable picture of Watson's season. He showed burgeoning signs of two-way potential with 4.2 defensive rebounds per game and 1.1 blocks per game. Relative to his position, his numbers ranked in the 92nd and 99th percentile respectively. Watson's athleticism on defense showed up in the number of shots he was in position to affect. He averaged 21.4 defensive field goal attempts per 100 possessions (96th percentile) and contested 8.0 shots per 100 possessions at the rim (91st percentile).

The duo of him and Nuggets superstar Nikola Jokic was productive with a stellar 132.5 offensive rating in their 772 games together. Watson also generated a healthy amount of free throws (FT rate of 0.33 free throw attempts per shot attempt) and showed off his ability to stuff the stat sheet in Jokic's absence. In the 763 minutes he played without Jokic, he averaged 20.3 points, 5.9 rebounds and 2.9 assists per game on 57.1 TS%. Canning over 40% of his threes in the minutes with and without Jokic speaks to his talent as a shooter and the ability to capitalize on the looks that he does get.

However, there are still several limitations in his game. In his minutes, the Nuggets wing had an on-ball percentage of 19.6% (80th percentile). That's not necessarily problematic, but it's something to consider when coupled with his low AST% of 9.7% and a TOV% of 12.3%. In particular, Watson is still not an effective passer. He posted a bad pass percentage of 17.5%, which ranked in the 9th percentile relative to his position. Atlanta already had trouble with their playmaking outside of Jalen Johnson and Watson wouldn't alleviate any of the pressure placed on JJ to run the offense.

Watson is someone that still needs his offensive opportunities largely set up for him. While he averaged an excellent 3.4 free throw attempts per game, his FT% of 73% also ranked in the 19th percentile relative to his position. While he's technically classified as a shooting guard and that worsens his percentiles for shooting numbers, it is worrying to add a player who can't reliably hit free throws on notable volume. The Hawks were 15th among the 16 postseason teams in team FT% and 20th during the regular season.

The 41.1% that Watson shot from deep during the regular season is also a bit misleading. He achieved that number while taking only 3.6 attempts per game from deep and had a three-point rate of 33.9%. He's not someone that takes a lot of threes and earns respect as a perimeter threat - he shoots above the volume that most bigs take them at, but below that of most wing players. For some context, Jonathan Kuminga had a three-point rate of 35.9% during the 16 games he played for the Hawks. During his time with the Hawks, Kuminga rarely drew defensive attention as a shooter and teams were perfectly content with letting him shoot. Watson's results were better than Kuminga, but the overall volume is reasonably comparable and calls into question whether his strong percentages are real or just the product of a contract year.

The Cumbersome Cost Of Watson's Contract

To be clear, Peyton Watson absolutely outplayed his deal for the Nuggets. He elevated his game, stepped up when Jokic was sidelined and made a strong argument for being the fourth most impactful player for the Nuggets last season behind Jokic, Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon. Doing all of that while making just $4.3 million certainly cemented his argument to make over $15 million a year on a new deal.

However, the $22 million per year that the Cavs are now locked into paying him isn't exactly chump change. Since he'll be playing SF for Cleveland, it's fair to compare his contract to the other earners in his APY level at that position. It puts him just a shade under names like Kyle Kuzma and a former Atlanta Hawk in DeAndre Hunter while elevating him over PJ Washington, Aaron Nesmith and Toumani Camara.

I would argue all three of the players below him have proven themselves to be better players at this stage. That doesn't mean Watson can't grow to be better. He's just 23 years old and wings take a very long time to mature in the NBA. Even so, Atlanta wasn't the best spot for him to make that much money while he's still developing.

They already have to balance the maturation of Jalen Johnson alongside growth from Dyson Daniels, Kingston Flemings and Onyeka Okongwu. That's without including minutes for Asa Newell and Zuby Ejiofor alongside seeing if Nickeil Alexander-Walker can replicate the season that won him the NBA Most Improved Player award. Adding Watson would also have complicated minutes for Lu Dort, who the Hawks just brought in this summer. Dort shouldn't necessarily prevent the Hawks from doing anything since he's on an expiring deal, but it would be very challenging for head coach Quin Snyder to figure out the minutes if they made an aggressive move for Watson and shoe-horned him into a rotation that's already crowded. That type of situation should only exist if the Hawks were adding a piece that elevates their ceiling.

Watson also got a player option and a trade kicker included in the contract, further complicating the amount of flexibility Atlanta has to move off the deal if it backfires. The Hawks don't know if they have the No. 1 option who can lead them into deep playoff runs just yet and it's unwise to be taking on expensive contracts without that question answered. If they need to make an aggressive move to get that player, they need all the first-round picks they can get. Sending one out for Watson, like the Cavs did, doesn't seem to be a wise use of resources if a 54-game sample is the primary driver behind said decision.

The Hawks learned the downside of betting on percieved flashes for a wing when they handed DeAndre Hunter a contract extension. Watson is a younger player who's shown signs of a higher ceiling, but there are still valid concerns that he'll never become a two-way force who can contribute in the playoffs. That's the expectation based on the contract and draft capital surrendered. Doing what the Cavs did would have been an expensive risk for the Hawks to take at a time when neither their roster or future are settled.

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