The New Lottery Odds Should Make The Atlanta Hawks Cautious About Any Aggressive Moves This Summer

Getting high picks in the draft has always been accompanied by tanking. The new lottery reform will reward teams who are competent yet careful - like Atlanta.

Apr 30, 2026; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Hawks forward Jalen Johnson (1) shoots against the New York Knicks in the third quarter during game six of the first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

In the last five seasons, the Atlanta Hawks have qualified for the playoffs three times. They've never made it past the first round in those three trips. It's rather emblematic of how the Hawks always seem to be stuck in NBA purgatory. They've rarely been awful like the Kings or Wizards in recent years nor have they attempted to tank like the Philadelphia 76ers and OKC Thunder in order to build a contender.

Instead, the Hawks have been firmly wedged in the middle of the NBA hierarchy. That's now an advantageous spot to be in - at least temporarily. However, it comes with some risk.

Per ESPN's Shams Charania, the new anti-tanking draft reforms were approved by the NBA's board of governors and they have huge implications for teams in the Hawks' position. The "3-2-1" lottery will be in place until at least 2029. Fortunately, even though the reform could be a problem for awful teams, it plays into the approach of newly-minted president of basketball operations Onsi Saleh.

What Do The New Rules Mean?

Feb 15, 2026; Inglewood, California, USA; NBA commissioner Adam Silver speaks to media after the 75th NBA All Star Game at Intuit Dome. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Essentially, the innovation of the "3-2-1" system lies in the amount of literal Ping-Pong balls that are placed into the drawing for the lottery. Finishing with one of the three worst records in the league only gives a team two balls in the drawing. Conversely, teams that finish with anywhere from the fourth-worst to the tenth-worst record will get three balls each. However, the No. 9 and No. 10 seed get two lottery balls and the loser of the No. 7 and No. 8 play-in game get one lottery ball too.

This means that the best lottery odds reside with teams that are in NBA purgatory rather than teams that are totally talent-deficient. If this was applied to the Wizards in the lottery drawing for this season, it would have severely depressed their odds of winning the No. 1 pick.

Functionally, the NBA also increased the amount of teams in the lottery from 14 teams to 16 teams. That means there are 1820 possible combinations of a four ball sequence that can be drawn. 1819 of those combinations would be assigned to the 16 teams in the lottery. The winning four-ball sequence will align with one of those distributed combinations. This is then repeated for the No. 2, No. 3 and No. 4 pick.

Importantly, teams cannot get the No. 1 overall pick in consecutive years and they cannot get a top-five pick in three consecutive drafts. For example, this rule would have rendered the Spurs' selection of Dylan Harper in the 2025 NBA Draft impossible because they already took Victor Wembanyama first overall and Stephon Castle fourth overall in consecutive drafts.

The most critical point of the lottery reform that many seem to forget is that these changes are only effective through 2029. Essentially, the NBA has a three-year period to see if these changes work. That gives the Hawks a three-year runway towards building a championship contender.

The Current State of the Eastern Conference Is Great For the Hawks

Apr 28, 2026; New York, New York, USA; Atlanta Hawks guard Nickeil Alexander-Walker (7) reacts in front of New York Knicks center Karl-Anthony Towns (32) after being fouled during the first quarter of game five of the first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images | Brad Penner-Imagn Images

The Hawks can go in several different directions this offseason. Regardless of what happens, it'll be very unlikely that they are one of the three worst teams in the NBA unless the entire roster is decimated by injuries. Jalen Johnson doesn't have the cleanest track record of staying healthy, but he played in 72 games this season. If that holds, it seems reasonable to think that the Hawks are going to be a play-in team at bare minimum.

At the moment, they lack the high-end ceiling of teams like the New York Knicks, Boston Celtics, Detroit Pistons and a healthy version of the Indiana Pacers. The Cavaliers seem committed to keeping their core in place, so that would also put them above the Hawks as things currently stand. However, the Hawks don't need to be chasing the top tier of the East just yet.

Unlike the Western Conference, there aren't teams like the OKC Thunder or the San Antonio Spurs who have an abundance of elite, young talent at the helm of stacked rosters in the East. Every team in the conference is either primarily comprised of older players without much future upside (Knicks, Sixers, Celtics, Cavaliers, Pacers) or led by young players with still-developing rosters around them (Hornets, Pistons, Magic). The Raptors are an exception - they have great young players at the forefront like Scottie Barnes and Collin Murray-Boyles. However, they already have bad contracts on their cap sheet with Brandon Ingram and Jakob Poetl.

Atlanta is in a very unique spot. They already have an All-NBA caliber wing who showed he can be the centerpiece of a respectable offense and led his team to the playoffs. Their three best players in Johnson, NAW and Daniels are 24 years old, 27 years old and 23 years old respectively. With a roster that was cobbled together at the trade deadline, they took two games off the best team in the conference. Atlanta's cap sheets are relatively clean and they aren't tied up in any obviously bad contracts at the moment with the exception of Corey Kispert, Buddy Hield and possibly Zaccharie Risacher.

The Future Could Be Bright For The Hawks - If They're Careful

Apr 30, 2026; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Hawks forward Jonathan Kuminga (0) is defended by New York Knicks guard Jose Alvarado (5) in the second quarter during game six of the first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Even though it may be boring and seem passive, the best thing that Atlanta's front office can do right now is to be patient and selectively aggressive. Trading for a star like Jaylen Brown or even a superstar like Giannis Antetokounmpo - as unlikely as that is - is not something that the Hawks should do if they want to maximize their long-term outlook over the Jalen Johnson era. Instead, Atlanta should make margin moves that address the halfcourt offense problems of the 2025-26 season without over-commiting on any individual players.

I didn't mention the Miami Heat in the larger picture of the Eastern Conference because they are the most obvious winners of the lottery reform. They always are competitive enough to be in the play-in and there's a good chance one of their picks jumps up in a big way over the next three seasons. However, Bam Adebayo is already 28 years old and Tyler Herro is due for an extension. They've got tough decisions to make on whether to go into a competitive rebuild or commit to squeezing whatever they can out of the Adebayo-Herro partnership. If they trade for Giannis this summer, they'd likely be moving out of the middle of the Eastern Conference and announcing their intentions to compete with the top teams in the East right now. They have enormous pressure on them to make a move this summer. Thankfully, the Hawks do not.

The reality is that Atlanta won't win the NBA championship without having one of the deepest teams in the NBA or one of the ten best players in the league. Currently, their best bet is to use this summer to add more roster depth via the draft and one or two veterans without sacrificing long-term cap space. From there, they have to hope that one of the Pelicans or Bucks ends up with a top-10 pick that falls outside of the top four next season so that it conveys to Atlanta. After adding two straight top-ten picks to the roster and re-gaining control of their first-round picks, the Hawks should be extremely aggressive in both the trade and free agency market after the 2026-27 offseason. Johnson, Daniels and NAW will all be firmly in their primes and they'll hopefully have multiple young players who have blossomed into contributors to support them.

It is certainly frustrating to be a play-in team for years on end. However, this summer is the wrong time to aggressively build through expensive trades and free agency contracts. The competition is still stiff in the East - Atlanta has the future upside to wait until those teams age out and the current talent to still be competitive enough with the top tier of the East without falling into the relegation zone. There's still plenty of moves to be made and ample amounts of time to turn this roster into a consistent contender under Onsi Saleh's direction.