Are the Miami Heat Better Off Winning or Losing in the Play-In?

The Miami Heat are right back where they’re most comfortable, the NBA Play-In Tournament. The Heat are 40-37 and are the 10th seed in the Eastern Conference. Miami is headed toward the Play-In Tournament for the fourth straight season.

So with that in mind, we asked our Sports Illustrated OnSI writers to weigh in: Are the Heat better off winning or losing in the play-in?

Ethan J. Skolnick

While it's understandable that the majority of Miami Heat fans would prefer the team lose in the play-in, and move up a few slots in the draft order -- and perhaps give themselves a better shot at the miracle they never get in the lottery -- I'll go the other way on this.

If you're going to tank, well, then, tank. But if you've come this far, even if it's out of stubbornness or stupidity or whatever, you need to at least see it through.

Yes, the Heat are likely five-game exits against any first round opponent, with maybe the Knicks presenting the best chance for a longer series, but there is some potential benefit to Kel'el Ware and Kasparas Jakucionis getting some playoff burn, until Erik Spoelstra sits them down. Might as well get a couple of home playoff games, and just hope they're not as embarrassing as the two against Cleveland last season.

Adam Simon and his scouting staff have shown that a couple of draft slots don't really matter that much; they'll find a good player in the first round, especially in a draft as deep as this one.

herr — Mar 30, 2026; Miami, Florida, USA; Miami Heat guard Tyler Herro (14) reacts after scoring against the Philadelphia 76ers during the fourth quarter at Kaseya Center. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

Major Passons

I understand why people might feel differently, but I personally will never say it’s better to miss the playoffs then make the playoffs. Yes, the heat have no realistic chance of competing for a title, but I will always believe winning is better than losing. The Heat seemed to have a similar belief as me as they have been in this position numerous times and each time have tried to make the playoffs I think the organization and I believe overtime it pays better dividends to make the playoffs then to hope for lottery luck.

Adel Burton

The Miami Heat are firmly entrenched into the play in with only 5 games left to go in a very mediocre season. It has had its highlights, such as Bam Adebayo scoring 83 points against the hapless Wizards who have been tanking for months. The development of the 20th overall pick, Kasparas Jakucionis, as an excellent 3 & D guard, shooting 41.8% from deep on the season.

This highlights the talent disparity with the rest of the league. The Miami Heat need to restock top talent. In the event they win two of their play in games and make the playoffs. They will be swept in the first round and get a lower draft pick because of it. If they lose the play in, they me be blessed by the lottery odds and move up for the first time in team history.

The odds of that happening are slim, but better than Giannis Antetokounmpo actually asking out of Milwaukee.