How the Miami Heat can advance in the Emirates NBA Cup

The NBA Cup has returned for its third season, bringing back group play, point-differential stakes, and early-season knockout drama. Introduced two years ago to add competitive urgency to early regular season games, the tournament features designated matchups that count toward both the regular-season standings and the NBA Cup standings. Teams are divided into groups, with each group winner -- plus two wild-card teams -- advancing to the eight-team knockout round.

For teams like the Miami Heat, every possession in the group stage matters.

Miami enters its final group-stage matchup against the Milwaukee Bucks with its NBA Cup fate still undecided. Because the Heat’s lone group-play loss came against the New York Knicks, the Knicks currently hold the head-to-head tiebreaker. That means Miami cannot clinch the group outright without help.

For the Heat to win their group, two things must happen:

Miami must beat the Bucks and The Knicks must lose one of their remaining group-play games.

If the Heat win and the Knicks also win, Miami must shift its focus to the Eastern Conference wild-card race. In that scenario, point differential becomes the deciding factor and the Heat are in a strong position. Miami currently holds a +46-point differential, which ranks among the best in the East and keeps them firmly in contention.

Miami’s Group C scenarios:

Heat clinch group with a win AND a New York loss.

Heat are eliminated if one of the following occurs:
• MIA loss + ATL win
• MIA loss + ORL win + DET win
— 𝙃𝙀𝘼𝙏 𝙉𝘼𝙏𝙄𝙊𝙉 (@HeatvsHaters) November 26, 2025

From there, the Heat would be competing with teams such as the Cavaliers, Pistons, and Magic. The team with the best overall point differential among the non-group winners will claim the conference’s wild-card spot. The winner of the Pistons/Magic matchup will determine the Group B champion, leaving Miami to chase the wild card if it finishes second.

Miami can also be eliminated with a loss as explained below-

With just two nights of Group Play left, 23 teams remain in the chase for the final six Knockout Rounds spots in the Emirates NBA Cup.

The scenarios for tonight's games ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/x5GB1JgXRM
— NBA Communications (@NBAPR) November 26, 2025

A win over the Bucks keeps the Heat alive but they will also need to monitor the Knicks and maintain a strong point differential. Miami not only has to win but likely win decisively to stay in the race. Otherwise, the Heat’s run will end in Miami, and they won’t be heading to Las Vegas for the knockout round of the NBA Cup.

EMIRATES NBA CUP STANDINGS UPDATE ‼️

🏆 Lakers clinch West Group B
🏆 Magic move to 3-0 in East Group A

Download the NBA App for more: https://t.co/Pm0YbCZouB pic.twitter.com/40nSkscPtY
— NBA (@NBA) November 26, 2025

Miami could be facing the Bucks without Giannis Antetokounmpo while the Heat appear to be heading towards full strength.

How To Watch Miami Heat-Milwaukee Bucks, Lineups, Injury Report, Betting Lines & More

The NBA cup has added fierce competition to the beginning of the NBA season and theres an added bonus for those involved.

Not only do the tournament play games take place in Las Vegas but Each player on the teams that lose in the quarterfinals will get $53,093, each player on the two teams that lose in the semifinals will get $106,187, each player on the team that loses in the championship will get $212,373 and each player on the team that’s crowned champion of the tourney will get $530,933.

A huge incentive to everyone involved, especially the role players that don't get that much recognition. The rest of Miami's scheduling is determined by their results in the in-season tournament and if they are too play in the Championship they will play an 83rd game that does not count towards their regular season record.

If the Heat advance, it will be their first time ever advancing in the tournament.