Inside The Heat

Jumpshots Galore: Keys for the Miami Heat to overcome the Boston Celtics

Aspects of the game the Heat will need to key in on in an important East matchup.
Apr 29, 2024; Miami, Florida, USA; Boston Celtics guard Jaylen Brown (7) drives past Miami Heat guard Jaime Jaquez Jr. (11) during the second quarter of game four of the first round for the 2024 NBA playoffs at Kaseya Center. Mandatory Credit: Michael Laughlin-Imagn Images
Apr 29, 2024; Miami, Florida, USA; Boston Celtics guard Jaylen Brown (7) drives past Miami Heat guard Jaime Jaquez Jr. (11) during the second quarter of game four of the first round for the 2024 NBA playoffs at Kaseya Center. Mandatory Credit: Michael Laughlin-Imagn Images | Michael Laughlin-Imagn Images

The Miami Heat will face off against the Boston Celtics, who are ahead of the Heat by half a game in the Eastern Conference standings, on Friday night.

Here are some things they will need to hone in on to end up on the other side of the game with a win:


Be careful what you wish for: The Heat, for several years now, no matter what defensive scheme they're deploy, are going to give up a high volume amount of threes. The Celtics, who take the fourth-highest amount of shots from three, will gladly take the Heat up on their offer. Unlike the Brooklyn Nets, who also like to take a ton of threes, the Celtics convert them at a decent clip.

The Heat will have a lot to be wary of in this aspect, as eight or nine of their ten rotation players are either high-volume three-point shooters or threats to ge them up. Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, Payton Pritchard, Anfernee Simons, Sam Hauser, Josh Minott, Baylor Scheierman, Hugo Gonzalez and Jordan Walsh combine to shoot around 43 threes per game.

The Celtics take the lowest percentage of shots coming at the rim, with the lowest free throw rate and eighth-lowest percentage of shots coming from the short mid-range, but make them at a high level. Additionally, they take the second-highest amount of long mid-rangers and also convert those at an elite clip.

Time to break the slump: The Heat will need to hit some threes if they want to win this game. On defense, the Celtics, like the Heat, are going to play the gaps and allow opponents to take shots beyond the arc. They give up the eighth-highest percentage of opponent shots coming from three, (Heat sixth-highest).

Since Dec. 3rd (the first loss in their recently snapped five-game losing streak), the Heat have converted just 29.4 percent of their threes. Although they got away with another stinker from three against the Nets on Thursday, that type of shooting will likely not cut it against a Celtics defense that allows the second-lowest percentage of opponent shots at the rim.

The Celtics foul at one of the highest rates in the league, and with the Heat's preference of taking shots in the paint combined with their recent stretch of rough three-point shooting, they will need to hit their free throws in this one. This has been a struggle for the Heat, who rank among the bottom 10 in free throw percentage in the NBA.

Possession Battle: A big part of the Celtics' somewhat unexpected early-season success has been their ability to consistently win this aspect of the game.

They have the fourth-best offensive rating in the league, and, on top of their high-level shotmaking, they have the best turnover percentage and the fifth-best offensive rebound percentage in the league. They also do a good job of turning teams over.

The Celtics' weak point in this aspect has been their defensive rebounding, another similarity they share with the Heat, giving up the fourth-highest offensive rebound percentage. The offensive glass is not exactly the Heat's strong suit, but with Kel'el Ware likely starting again, they will have the opportunity to out-size them and, ideally, get extra opportunities.


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For more Miami Heat information and conversation, check out Off The Floor.


Alexander Toledo is a contributor to Miami Heat On SI and producer/co-host of the Five on the Floor podcast, covering the Heat and NBA. He can be reached at Twitter: @tropicalblanket


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Alex Toledo
ALEX TOLEDO

Alex, who was born in Miami, is also a producer, co-host and reporter for the Five on the Floor podcast. He has covered the Heat and NBA since 2019 as a season credential holder. He studied journalism at Florida International University.