The Heat face their nemesis again: Nikola Jokić and the Nuggets

Sometimes there is just nothing you can do, as Miami has seen

Nov 19, 2025; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokić (15) looks on against the New Orleans Pelicans during the first half at Smoothie King Center. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-Imagn Images | Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

Since Nikola Jokić’s rookie year (2015-16), the Denver Nuggets have a 76.2 win percentage in the regular season facing the Miami Heat, and they beat them in five for the 2023 NBA title as well. Keep in mind that the Heat are on an 11-game losing streak versus the Mile High killers, stretching back to the Orlando bubble (non-playoffs) in 2020. 

Even with coach Erik Spoelstra downplaying the altitude, it is still a factor and a solid advantage in Denver’s home court. Playing half the season in those conditions also gives them an endurance advantage on tour, similar to how a boxer has a second wind in the championship rounds of a big fight. 

Before Jokić, the Heat had a 29-27 record against them, but he is turning into a pantheon player of NBA history in large part because of his advanced skills, and barely anyone in this era has the bulk and mobility to stop him. He’s an insoluble puzzle as the world’s premier scorer and playmaker, and he routinely puts a hurtin’ on the Heat.

In 21 regular-season games versus Miami, Jokić has shot below 50 percent five times, and the Nuggets still won four of those contests. Scoring at the level seems to always disrupt the Heat’s pace, making them see more set schemes. On top of that, only one of those sub-par shooting outings is relatively recent (2023-24), and the rest are from 2019, 2020 and 2021. 

A high winning percentage is common when one side has a generational player, and the other does not. Consider how the Heat had one as well (66.7) against the Nuggets from 2010 to 2014, when LeBron James was in Miami. The most they won in a row in that span was three, which is decent for the short time he was a Heatle, but it’s not close to their longest winning streak versus Denver, which totaled 11 games across seven seasons (1996-2002).

Finally the time for the Heat to break through?

Presently, the Nuggets are without three starters (Cam Johnson, Christian Braun, Aaron Gordon). Jokić and Jamal Murray have been picking up the scoring, and the team finally plugged a hole this season that had been a silent killer in years past: filling the backup big man spot with Jonas Valančiūnas, who is a starting-caliber player.

Big Val’s presence makes it hard for opponents to win the non-Jokić minutes, and Jokić is so formidable that he makes it work with whoever is around him.

It doesn't matter that Spoelstra knows coach David Adelman will emulate his father, Rick, and run a good chunk of action out of the elbow. He can game plan for that and all the inverted sets he wants, but unless someone or multiple Heat players go nuclear, history has a strong chance to repeat itself.