Three things to watch for as Heat face Hornets in play-in

The stage is set: the Miami Heat will be heading to Charlotte to face the Hornets in that 9-10 play-in game.

The only way to punch their ticket into the playoffs is by winning two straight win or go home games on the road, starting with a blazing offense in Charlotte led by LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller, and Kon Knueppel.

The Heat are 3-1 against the Hornets this season, while two of those came prior to the new calendar year when the new look offense was peaking and the team was clicking.

If you're looking for some positives to this match-up, the Heat should be able to score. When they face teams like Orlando or Toronto, the half-court offense is non-existent and their chances of winning are close to non-existent.

But they put up 126 points a game across the four match-ups with Charlotte this year, meaning that part of the floor won't be the issue. It'll be about the defense, which has slipped against better teams this season, even with Bam Adebayo anchoring.

But let's quickly preview some things to watch for in this first play-in game, before the Heat's draft talk starts in earnest.

1. An early look into the lineup.

Oct 28, 2025; Miami, Florida, USA; Miami Heat center Kel'El Ware (7) grabs a rebound against Charlotte Hornets guard Kon Knueppel (7) during the first quarter at Kaseya Center. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

There's some current buzz around Kel'el Ware's finish to the regular season, as his play has not only picked up as of late, but Erik Spoelstra has prioritized his development. That included two straight starts to close the year, but I don't know if that continues into the play-in. With the way Charlotte runs and can light it up from three, I wouldn't expect Miami to stay big to start games. Norman Powell, Jaime Jaquez Jr, and Kel'el Ware can ideally spark something off the bench, as Miami will almost certainly stick with Davion Mitchell, Tyler Herro, Andrew Wiggins, Pelle Larsson, and Bam Adebayo to start.

2. The X-Factor position.

Mar 6, 2026; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Miami Heat guard Tyler Herro (14) gets a loose ball from Charlotte Hornets forward Kon Knueppel (7), Miami Heat guard Dru Smith (12) and center forward Bam Adebayo (13) during the second half at the Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Sam Sharpe-Imagn Images. | Sam Sharpe-Imagn Images

The guard room is what they are at this stage, when staggering the skill-sets of Herro and Powell, plus the altering Mitchell-Kasparas Jakucionis minutes. The big man room is quite literally two guys, in Adebayo and Ware. But when it comes to this Charlotte match-up in particular, it's all about the wings. If Miami wants a shot of winning this game, it'll be due to the fact two of the three of Wiggins, Jaquez, and Larsson had big games. Not only for perimeter defense purposes, it's the real way to exploit this team offensively. Open floor fastbreaks, offensive rebounds and tip-ins, and overall chaotic second action stuff. That position group can be the X-Factors.

3. Three point battle.

Nov 7, 2025; Miami, Florida, USA; Miami Heat guard Norman Powell (24) looks on against the Charlotte Hornets during the fourth quarter of an NBA Cup game at Kaseya Center. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

Lastly, it really is this simple: who is going to win the battle from beyond the arc? As I mentioned before, it's really Charlotte's identity to just take a ton of threes across the board from their primary guys. But when talking about a one game sample, three point shooting is what lucked Miami out of most of their play-in wins in past years. Whether it was Davion Mitchell in Atlanta last year or the role players during the Jimmy Butler era, perimeter shooting clicking on a random night is sometimes all it takes. We will see who wins that battle soon enough.