The Miami Heat's Giannis Package Now Even Better After Rule Change

The Miami Heat are in hot pursuit of their next whale in Giannis Antetokounmpo. According to reporting by Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald the Miami Heat package for Giannis could look like; Tyler Herro, Kel’el Ware, another young player like Jaime Jaquez Jr, 2 first round picks and 2 pick swaps.

To recap Heat advantages: 1) Bucks have some level of interest in Ware/Herro. Miami was the final team eliminated from contention for Giannis before trade deadline.
2). Heat has other good young players to offer as a 3rd piece.
3). If it chooses & if trade is done before draft,… https://t.co/RaCiKhRg6K
— Barry Jackson (@flasportsbuzz) May 6, 2026

There was news that broke today that the NBA board of directors passed the new anti-tanking legislation. It’s called “3-2-1 Lottery”, and boy does it make things look a lot different from a Heat perspective. The new rules greatly increase the Heat package compared to the old rules.

The Old Rules

The old rules made the Miami picks less valuable because they never tanked. The last 10 years average draft position for the Heat was 17.2 overall. The Heat have had a top 16 pick 4 out of the last 10 years. When the Heat did have a lottery pick their odds at the #1 overall pick was typically 1%-2%. In the era of the new CBA. This worked against Miami in potential trades.

3-2-1 Draft Lottery rules and odds, via @NBAPR: pic.twitter.com/CDT6Ujead1
— Underdog NBA (@UnderdogNBA) May 28, 2026

The New Rules

The new rules have expanded the lottery from the bottom 14 teams to the bottom 16. The bottom three teams get penalized by not getting as many ping pong balls as years past. That means teams 4-10 get three ping pong balls while the bottom three only get two.

The bottom three teams get a little bit of a break by not being able to fall lower than 12th. The new rules prevent teams from getting the first pick two years in a row. A team also can not pick in the top five in three consecutive years.

Breaking: The NBA's Board of Governors has passed new anti-tanking rules that include expanding the draft lottery from 14 to 16 teams, a relegation zone where the bottom 3 teams get penalized with lessened chances for the No. 1 pick, and flattened odds, sources tell ESPN. pic.twitter.com/e1oq10p2yV
— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) May 28, 2026

The odds for the first overall pick are the remaining non-play-in teams like the Heat in 2026. They would have 8.1% odds. The three teams with the worst record and team’s 9th and 10th seeds would have the same odds of 5.4%.

Miami's Package looks better

Suddenly, the Miami Heat package looks even better. The Bucks now have better odds to rebuild using the Miami picks than it would before. This doesn’t apply to every organization; the Heat are different. If Giannis gets injured coach Erik Spolstra and Bam Adebayo have already proven they can drag their team to compete in any season regardless of players around them. Most teams would fold like a cheap suit and be one of the worst teams in the league. Just ask the Indiana Pacers.

The other teams rumored to be in the Giannis sweepstakes are Golden State, Portland and New York. Now, could a contender with a war chest like Oklahoma City, San Antonio or Houston get creative in the mix? Sure, but that is unlikely. That means that none of the other teams outside of the New York Knicks have the track record in recent history to not bottom out. The issue with New York is they traded five first round picks for Mikal Brides.

The Heat all in all have the best package of the teams strongly considering making a run at Giannis. This was the case before the rule change but even more valuable now. The rules will be re-evaluated in 2029 so this window of time is perfect for the Heat to capitalize on their newfound lottery chances.

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