Examining Cody Martin's Free Agency
The Charlotte Hornets in their 22-year history have never re-signed a 2nd round pick following their rookie contract. Can Cody Martin break the mold and be the first?
Martin is another second-round success project of the Kupchak/Borrego era following on from 2021 MIP candidate Devonte Graham. Martin emerged as the team’s best defender and took a large jump offensively improving both his three-point shooting (38%) and assist/turnover ratio (2.9). A versatile defensive wing who can shoot and handle the ball a little bit, what’s not to like? Despite going into just his 4th year Cody will be entering the season as a 27 year old, making this off-season likely his only opportunity for a big pay day.
Unfortunately for Cody Martin the timing of his free agency for the Hornets is a bad one.
- Charlotte's project to have no CAP space this off season after signing Terry Rozier (4-year $97) to a sizeable extension at the start of the year.
- Miles Bridges is a free agent this off-season and understandably as a key starter will be the team’s first priority to re-sign.
- Charlotte drafted James Bouknight 11th overall in 2021 who plays the same position as Martin and looks set to push for playing time in 22-23.
- Kelly Oubre has another year ($12 million 50% guaranteed) on his contract in Charlotte.
Despite the sticky financial situation currently projected, Martin is set to be a restricted free agent so Charlotte can match any offer he receives on the open market despite not having CAP space. However, with highly paid veterans Hayward and Rozier already on the team and a sizeable raise in store for Bridges, is it a good idea to further limit Charlotte’s flexibility going forward to re-sign a 6th or 7th man? For me that depends on the cost of Martin returning to Charlotte. I looked at the past two free agency classes to asses Martin’s likely market value to try and anticipate what another team might offer him.
Of the contracts handed out in the table above it’s a mixed bag of success, Bullock/Melton still have roles on their team but are expensive role players. Batum (Shudder) is strongly exceeding his value compared to salary whereas Temple was out the rotation completely in New Orleans. Cody Martin will likely find himself somewhere between Nic Batum’s $3.5 million and Reggie Bullock’s $10 million per year.
Statistically, Martin’s numbers most strongly correlate to Temple (35) and Batum (33), but both of those players were well into their mid-30s when signing their deals and teams likely anticipated a decline in their production. Martin looks well set to be entering his athletic prime which would means you can expect an increased cost compared to the afore mentioned players.
Overall, a contract in the $5-8 million range seems to be about market value based off recent history. However, an important factor is opposing teams may not want to get into a restricted free agent battle over low upside reserve. If an opposing team were to sign Martin to a deal their CAP space would be tied up for three days meaning they could miss out on other free agents while Charlotte decide to match the offer sheet or not.
Comparing to past free agent cycles does come with an amber warning, every free agent class is different as it depends on who has CAP space and which other players are free agents. Looking at the 2022 FA list there seems to be several other defensive wings who are fully unrestricted free agents (UFA) which could make for a challenging market for Martin. Bruce Brown Jr, Gary Harris, Gary Payton II, Victor Oladipo, Austin Rivers, Josh Jackson, Jarrett Culver all project to fill a similar role.
I’d would Martin firmly behind Brown and Oladipo and maybe a nudge behind Harris/Payton II. In Martin's case existing CAP space doesn’t figure to be as important driving factor of driving value for Martin with over two thirds of NBA teams having enough cap space or their Mid-Level Exception (Up to $9.5 million) which they could use to sign Martin. You can also expect several of the remaining teams not currently with space to make moves around the draft to create some flexibility.
Another option could be for Cody to sign his qualifying offer (QO) of $2.2 million which would see him then become an UFA in 2023. If Charlotte are unsure on what they have in Bouknight and want to kick the can down the road with Martin, this could be a route that suits Charlotte. However, that would give the Hornets significantly less control as he could simply leave for nothing as an UFA in 2023. For Martin the QO would would likely be a worst case scenario and an unlikely outcome. Uncertainty about his role under a new coach and the risk of being buried behind other wing options is a risk which I imagine his agency are not wanting to take.
Overall, I think the most likely scenario is re-signing Martin to a two year contract for $10-14. If Charlotte did re-sign Martin on this sort of deal it wouldn't be the end of the world even if Bouknight did usurp him in the rotation. Martin gives Charlotte depth at the wing and cover for a potential Terry Rozier trade if the front office were to ever move in that direction. I would't feel comfortable having money tied up for 3+ years or going up into the $8-10 million. I don't care about John Hollinger's BOARD$ projection having Martin being valued at over $12 per year, committing eight figure salaries to older, low ceiling role players rarely works out as planned (See Jeremy Lamb, ).
Perhaps this history of role players being worth less than their free agency contract is the reason why Charlotte has never re-signed a 2nd round pick in their history. Will Cody Martin be the first? That's unclear, but he has the best chance in a long time.
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