Hornets vs. Magic Preview: Analyzing Charlotte's Path to Victory

Win and you're in. Lose and you go home. That is the situation facing the Charlotte Hornets on Friday night.

After the Philadelphia 76ers defeated the Orlando Magic on Wednesday, the final brick of the Charlotte Hornets' path to the playoffs was laid in front of them. With a win against Orlando, a team that Charlotte is 3-1 against this season, the Hornets will clinch their first playoff berth since 2016.

Let's break down the keys to Friday night's game.

Play Your Game

In Charlotte's three wins over Orlando, the Hornets' traditional strengths have dominated the undermanned Magic. They've pulled down at least 30% of the offensive rebounds available to them, including a ridiculous 50% of their own misses in the win on March 19th.

The Hornets have also poured in three-pointers against the Magic's defense. In those three games against Orlando, Charlotte has made 48.7%, 47.1%, and 50% of their long-range attempts. Orlando has one of the league's stingiest three-point defenses in the league, allowing the fourth fewest number of attempts and the 12th worst percentage league-wide, but the Hornets have figured out the secret sauce to blow them away from deep.

Charlotte doesn't need to alter their traditional game plan for this trip to Orlando -- just playing their brand of basketball should be enough to compete.

No Turnovers, No Fouls

Orlando's physicality is the X-factor in this one.

The Magic boast a deep stable of strong defenders that typify the units that have given the Hornets trouble this season. On the right night any of Desmond Bane, Jalen Suggs, Anthony Black, and Franz Wagner have the potential to wreck games on defense with their combinations of strength, agility, and physicality.

Charlotte has struggled with turning the ball over all season, and Orlando's violent nature has exacerbated those issues. Two of the Hornets' ten worst games in terms of turnover percentage have come against the Magic (although one of those two was in a game back in October), and if they cough the ball up too often on Friday, they could be in danger.

The good news for the Hornets is that they seem to be on the path to rectifying their season-long issues with giveaways. In their biggest game of the season, Tuesday's Play-In victory over Miami, Charlotte only turned the ball over six times.

On the other side of the floor, Orlando is elite at drawing free throws. Jahmal Mosley's offensive system is painfully stagnant, but they continuously find easy points at the line with their aformentioned physicality. Orlando's 25.2 free throw rate is the highest in the league, clashing directly with Charlotte's elite defensive foul avoidance.

The Hornets have won that battle in their four games against the Magic this season, holding Orlando below their season average in three of the games, making it a clear area of focus heading into Friday night.

Get Kon Going Early

The Hornets advanced past the Miami Heat in spite of their Rookie of the Year candidate.

Kon Knueppel was 0-6 from three and 2-12 from the field before Charles Lee pulled him for Coby White in the last few minutes of regulation. For Charlotte to beat Orlando and clinch their first playoff berth in a decade, Knueppel must play a factor in the win-or-go-home contest.

Knupepel made an appearance on the Hornets' injury report on March 23rd with a lower back ailment, and it looks like that injury is still lingering. In 11 games since then, the sharpshooting wing is only connecting on 37% of his attempts from deep, 63% at the rim, and 29% in the midrange. His effective field goal percentage has plummeted to 49.7% in this sample size compared to his blistering season-long number of 60.3%.

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