Making sense of Tre Mann's season: Why a single game does not tell the whole story

On Saturday, Utah's Cody Williams recorded the worst +/- in NBA history at a -60 in the team's 55-point loss to the Charlotte Hornets.

“He played well… Let’s highlight that, I had a -40 and won a Finals, plus-minus a useless stat," responded his brother, Oklahoma City Thunder star Jalen, shortly after.

Jalen Williams is correct that the plus-minus stat can be extremely misleading. The players around you, the lineups you are facing, all different things can determine what a plus-minus can look like.

The Daily Plus-Minus, or DPM, metric is like a smarter plus-minus that helps filter out the noise. The metric combines everything from box scores, on/off data, tracking, and past performances to help determine a player's true talent level.

For example, the three leaders in this metric are, as expected, Nikola Jokic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Of the 19 players who have touched the floor for the Hornets this season, there are two players in the top 100 (LaMelo Ball, Moussa Diabate), and five players in the top 200 (Kon Knueppel, Mason Plumlee, Grant Williams, Collin Sexton, and Antonio Reeves).

The team has four players who have a -2.0 DPM or worse. The first three have each been on a two-way spot this season: PJ Hall (-2.0), Drew Peterson (-2.3), and KJ Simpson (-2.6)

In last place on the team on this metric is Tre Mann, who sits with a -2.7 DPM, and 615th in the entire league.

Statistically, this is no outlier season for Mann. After posting the second-highest DPM of his career at -1.6 last season, prior to a career high -1.2 the year before, Tre has now recorded -2 or more for the third time in his career.

His offensive daily plus-minus, or ODPM, has sat between -1.4 and -1.0 throughout his entire career, and his -1.4 rating this season ties a career low from 2022. His defensive daily plus-minus, or DDPM, sat between -0.7 and 0.0 the past three years. This season, Mann recorded a -1.2 this season, a new career low and a low since his -1.1 rating in his rookie season.

And after being a +10.1 in his NET On-Off just a season ago, Tre is a -14.6 this year, in the fifth percentile of the entire NBA.

After a few weeks of consistently receiving DNPs from head coach Charles Lee, Mann played every fourth quarter minute of Saturday's win over the Jazz. Tre took advantage of his minutes, posting a season-high 20 points on 7/10 shooting in his 12 minutes.

Just one game later, Collin Sexton was announced out shortly before tip-off. Mann found himself receiving more minutes than he had seen in close to a month and was continuing to build off his excellent performance on Saturday.

He recorded 9 points in 13 minutes, the most minutes he has played since December 22nd. While he finished as a -1, he was third-highest in the team in the plus-minus statistic, and his minutes were viewed as a general positive for the Hornets.

These performances do not change Tre's season-long profile; rather, they reinforce why impact metrics are evaluated over large samples. While short bursts can swing entire games and make players look positive, they rarely move the impact models that have been built on hundreds of possessions. Daily plus-minus is meant to help filter out any fluctuations and help us understand the true talent level of players better.

The recent performances from Mann show us that he can be productive when used in controlled stretches, especially when the defensive exposure is limited, and he has a smaller offensive role. The biggest challenge for the Hornets is finding lineups that help best suit his strengths, and finding players around him to help maximize his abilities.

Until that happens on a consistent basis, the numbers are unlikely to change.

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