How Jazz Can Defy the Odds & Survive NBA's Stiffest Remaining Schedule
The Utah Jazz are enjoying a few days off before Saturday night's home stand vs. the Boston Celtics. As Utah catches its breath after that six-game road trip, the Western Conference playoff picture continues to shuffle and reshuffle.
Just since Utah's loss to the Miami Heat on Monday night, the Jazz have climbed from the No. 12 seed in the Western Conference to the No. 11. The Dallas Mavericks have lost seven of their last 10 games and are currently riding a three-game losing streak, which has improved Utah's playoff outlook.
The ongoing slump of the No. 1-seeded Denver Nuggets (four-straight losses) and No. 4-seeded Phoenix Suns (three-straight) could also shake things up, opening the way for Utah. Meanwhile, the Portland Trail Blazers have also lost four in a row, falling to the No. 13 seed in the Conference.
While that's encouraging to Jazz Nation, keep in mind that Utah's remaining schedule is tough. I mean, really super difficult.
According to Tankathon.com, the Jazz have the hardest remaining schedule in the National Basketball Association. Ben Anderson of KSL.com helped illustrate Utah's arduous road ahead.
With 13 games left to go, the Jazz will face a slate of opponents with an average winning percentage of .560. It's going to be a slog down the stretch, though eight of those games are at home. With Utah's next four games being in Salt Lake City, the team will have to make hay while the hometown sun is shining.
However, if the four full days off between Miami and Boston has the effect of Jordan Clarkson healing up, and maybe even Collin Sexton, all things become possible for Utah once again — despite a stiff schedule. Even if, say, only Clarkson returns to the lineup by Saturday, with the emergence of Talen Horton-Tucker and Kris Dunn, it would give the Jazz a massive boost.
We don't yet know whether a playoff berth is written in the 2022-23 stars for Utah, but if it's meant to be, the degree of difficulty of these remaining 13 games could, hopefully, have a galvanizing effect on the Jazz. If Utah is able to navigate this stretch run, maximize its four-game homestand, and defy its 21.2% odds of making the playoffs, come the tournament, this team will be honed into a sharp tool.
Even if they made the postseason, the Jazz likely don't have the horses to make a deep run, but if this team does enough to qualify, no Western Conference opponent is going to want to face them. That's the upside.
The downside? Utah could spiral down the stretch, which would only bolster its lottery odds. Either way, Jazz Nation wins.
It just depends on whether one's outlook is based on the short or long-term view of the team. Basketball-Reference.com recently ran an analysis featuring 10,000 simulations, which predicted that Utah finishes with 39.2 wins.
The Frozen Rope's Patrick Byrnes wrote this about it how such an eventuality would affect Utah's draft outlook:
If Basketball Reference's prediction holds true, the Jazz will have a 4.5% chance of getting the No. 1 selection and a 20.2% shot of a top-four pick. The most likely selection would be at the No. 9 slot, with a 46.3% chance.
However, if Utah has a shot of being part of the 6-8 spot conversation, it could be as a result of its remaining games... Time will tell how this will all play out, but what we do know is if the Jazz free-fall to No. 6, it won’t be from a lack of trying.
Bottom Line
Time will tell what the Basketball Gods have in store for the Jazz. However it shakes out, though, Jazz Nation should buckle up because, as evidenced by the product on the court, Will Hardy and the players are not buying into any purported top-down mandate to tank.
It's adapt or die for Hardy and company, but it'll be fun to see how the Jazz ultimately evolve when the dust settles on the regular season.
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