The Biggest X-Factor for the Kings 2026-27 Season and Beyond

The Sacramento Kings have no shortage of questions for this offseason, whether it be around their draft pick or what they are going to do with the veterans still on the roster, but it's important to remember that they still have a roster full of players that won't be included (or at least likely won't?) in rumors this offseason.

The rookies in Nique Clifford, Maxime Raynaud, and Dylan Cardwell controlled the headlines last year during the bleak season, and rightfully so, but there's a player that many saw as the Kings' one true building block just a year ago that feels almost forgotten at this point a year later: Keegan Murray.

Murray, along with Keon Ellis, was viewed as a player to build around last offseason. We already know how that went for Ellis and the Kings, as he now sits a game away from the Eastern Conference finals with the Cleveland Cavaliers, but the verdict for Murray and his ability to be a main piece going forward is still up in the air.

Last season was supposed to be the year where Murray had his breakout with an expanded role, but injuries limited him to just 23 games, and we ended up with what feels like a lost year of his career instead. The good news is that Murray didn't do anything to lower his stock or show he can't excel in that role, but we still don't know if he can either.

It's safe to say that Murray has proven himself as one of the better wing defenders in the league, which, along with his rebounding and size, makes him a great starter for almost any team in the league. But the biggest question around the soon-to-be fifth-year player continues to be his shooting.

Murray's Shooting Decline

Mar 3, 2025; Dallas, Texas, USA; Sacramento Kings forward Keegan Murray (13) shoots a three point shot over Dallas Mavericks guard Klay Thompson (31) during the second half at the American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images | Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

Murray couldn't have started out better in his NBA career from beyond the arc. He made a then-rookie record 206 threes in his first season in Sacramento on an impressive 41.1% clip. That was the makings of a sharpshooter who could lead a team from beyond the arc almost on his own.

But over the next three seasons, we've seen Murray's three-point shooting decline. And not just decline, but it's fallen hard. He shot 35.8%, 34.3%, and 27.7% over the three seasons, and now sits at 36.5% for his career. Injuries certainly made last year a challenge, but the shot just hasn't been there for Murray since that first magical year.

And that's why Murray's three-point shooting continues to be the Kings' biggest x-factor going forward. If he's able to get back to the 39-41% range, he has the potential to be one of the best all-around players not only on the Kings but in the league. He likely won't make any All-Star teams, but that's the type of player every single team is lining up to get every chance they can get.

But if Murray's three-point shooting never returns to that high 30s range, he could go down as another miss in the lore of Kings draft picks. Don't get me wrong, even without making his shot over the last three years, Murray has easily been one of the Kings' most productive players with how much he does on the court. But that three-point shot controls his ceiling.

Pairing the three-point sharpshooting version of Murray with this year's number seven pick would go a long way toward getting Sacramento out of the cellar. All we can do is hope and see if the rookie year performance was a one-off, or these three years of down shooting are a result of the Kings' down years in general. Let's hope it's the latter.

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