Comparing Tom Thibodeau's First Bulls Roster to the Current Knicks
Our own Jonathan Macri reported Sunday evening that a league source put the chances of the Knicks hiring Tom Thibodeau as the team's next head coach at 90 percent.
The reaction to this news has been mixed, and understandably so: Thibodeau's tenure in Minnesota ended rather poorly, and the success he had in Chicago was a long time ago.
Then there's this issue: he took over a Bulls team that had more recent success than these Knicks. Under Vinny Del Negro, the Bulls weren't world-beaters, but they won 41 games in each of the two previous seasons before Thibodeau took over.
To put that in perspective, the Knicks will need to finish 7-19 to finish with 41 wins over the past two seasons combined.
So these are different rosters at different points in the development curve. What Thibodeau did in year one in Chicago, though — 62-20, a trip to the Eastern Conference Finals — required leaps forward from several young players and vets.
So are there analogues on this current New York team? Let's take a look.
Derrick Rose: the former member of the Knicks' superteam was, of course, an MVP as a member of the Chicago Bulls. And he took a dramatic leap forward from 2009-10 to 2010-11, lifting his assist percentage from 30.3 to 38.7, doubling his defensive win shares, and essentially fulfilling the promise that made him the top overall pick in the 2008 draft. The problem, of course, is that no one on the Knicks is anywhere close to Rose's ceiling. Draft someone like LaMelo Ball and you're still talking about a rookie point guard, whereas Rose made this leap in his third season. RJ Barrett's optimal outcome is more like Jimmy Butler (who comes later in Thibs-Bulls) than Rose. So, is there a Rose by any other name? Not clearly, no.
Joakim Noah, Luol Deng: Again, Thibodeau inherited a bunch of talent. The Knicks don't have anyone with a 11.3 win share season on their current roster, evenly distributed between offense and defense, like Deng, nor do they have a rebounder at the level of Noah. There is a player with close to Noah's numbers on the defensive boards, though: Julius Randle. It's interesting to consider Randle as someone Thibodeau could reinvent as his Noah. It'll call for him to dramatically revamp his defensive game, possession-by-possession, and it involves asking Randle to step back on the offensive end — the difference in usage rates are enormous. But look, Randle is here, he's obviously got skills and size, and he wants to make the playoffs. Could a buy-in change the trajectory of his career? Absolutely, and Thibodeau does have a history of getting guys to do that.
Then again, the far likelier ceiling outcome for Randle is right there for the picking: Carlos Boozer. The number similarities are scary. This is no knock on either player, it just means the Knicks need, say, Mitchell Robinson to become the Deng-level defender and to find a Noah-level four, if that's even advisable in the modern NBA game, which rewards spacing and shooting far more than it did a decade ago.
So do these teams look alike, even in an idealized version of the Knicks? Not really. Wayne Ellington and Reggie Bullock are set to be the Keith Bogans and Kyle Korver figures, at least.
We'll continue to evaluate Thibodeau's impact on other players, but this is the origin story of Thibodeau as head coach/miracle maker. It doesn't mean he can't do it in New York. It just means his Year One would look different this time around.
