The Knicks should extend Frank Ntilikina before the 2020-21 season
The Knicks' 2019-20 regular season could possibly be over, with the coronavirus pandemic shutting down the NBA for at least 30 days.
The games didn't really matter at this point anyway, but if this is it for the 2019-20 campaign, focus needs to start shifting to offseason priorities. With that, one thing rings very true, based on recent events: the Knicks need to try to get Frank Ntilikina locked up to an extension once the offseason actually starts.
"When the offseason starts" is kind of a nebulous term right now, given nobody actually knows when the regular season or postseason will end, but typically NBA teams have from the end of the July free agent moratorium period until the start of the regular season to negotiate contracts with rookie-scale players, per CBAFAQ.
Inking Ntilikina would be weirdly poetic: he'd be the first Knicks draft pick to get a rookie extension since Charlie Ward, who was drafted in 1994. Meanwhile, Ntilikina is now on his third front office and third head coach (with a fourth likely on the way) in three years with the Knicks, and shares the title of longest-tenured Knick with his 2017 draft mate Damyean Dotson.
It feels like Ntilikina has been on the trade block since the day Phil Jackson was fired in 2017, just days after drafting Ntilikina over Dennis Smith Jr. in what was reportedly a hotly-contested decision in the Knicks' front office. Every trade deadline, reports emerge of Ntilikina having suitors around the league, only for the Knicks to end up holding onto the lengthy French guard.
When trying to set a market for what Ntilikina could get on an extension, it's important to try to find some players that profile similarly to him statistically, as well as ones that clearly hadn't reached anything close to their full potential by the end of the third season of their rookie contract. With that in mind, three players that signed rookie extensions in the last few years come to mind: Dante Exum, Justise Winslow and Marcus Smart.
All three were similar to Ntilikina in many ways (and in some ways, still are): great NBA bodies, unclear ideal roles, good-to-great defenders, and occasional flashes of sheer brilliance that were enough to make people salivate at their potential. Here are the stats from all four players' first three seasons (or in Exum's case, two), per Basketball-Reference:
Basketball-Reference
Basketball-Reference
Basketball-Reference
The statistical similarities between the four are pretty staggering, especially when looking at per-36 and advanced numbers. Exum and Smart faced similar questions to Ntilikina through their first three years, mostly "Is (Exum/Smart/Ntilikina) a point guard, or just a defensively-minded combo guard?" Winslow started off as a tweener forward and was unlocked last season when Erik Spoelstra started playing him at the point.
All three signed extensions, and each one presents an interesting case to compare Ntilikina to. Exum signed a three-year, $33 million extension prior to his fourth season. In the first two years of that deal, he hasn't come close to fulfilling the promise that got him that $11 million annual salary, averaging just 5.8 points and 1.9 assists on 43.6% shooting (31.4% from three) in the two years since.
Perhaps more concerning is that Exum hasn't quelled any fears about his ability to stay on the court, appearing in just 77 games over the last two seasons. A change of scenery helped him a bit this season when he was traded to Cleveland, but he likely won't get anything close to his $11 million annual salary again on his next contract, and serves as a cautionary tale of extending oft-injured defensive guards with promise.
Winslow, similarly, has had his issues staying on the court. He set his high-water mark for games played his rookie year with 78, and since then has played 18, 68 and 66 games before only playing 11 this season. Still, though, Winslow was seemingly unlocked in his fourth season after he signed his three-year, $39 million extension (with a team option on the third year) when Spoelstra moved him to point guard, proving the Heat right for believing in him. Now his next time suiting up will be for the Grizzlies, who might get to reap the rewards of a young, efficient point forward on a value contract.
Smart, though, provides perhaps the best template for how Ntilikina's career could go with the Knicks. Smart, like Ntilikina, has lived through tons of personnel changes on the Celtics and has been their one constant. He put up similar numbers to Ntilikina in his first three seasons, albeit being trusted with a much higher minutes load, before signing a four-year, $52 million extension off of his rookie deal.
Since then, Smart has been a key piece on a number of Celtics playoff teams — not a star, by any means, but the essential perimeter defender that almost all good teams have. He's also shot 35.6% from deep on the first two years of his extension, a number that should probably be an attainable benchmark for Ntilikina in the coming seasons.
So what would be the sweet spot for a Ntilikina extension? Probably somewhere in the Exum range, but perhaps even less than that, given that he (for whatever reason) hasn't gotten the same type of hype as a prospect as some of the others on this list.
If the Knicks could sign him to something like a three-year, $24 million deal, they shouldn't let Ntilikina's agent hang up the phone. Look no further than Ntilikina's 20-point, 10-assist game the other day: this kid isn't even close to being done growing as a player, and securing him to a value contract before his shot finds some consistency will be key. The Knicks shouldn't let him play out his fourth season, show even more promise, and then have to match a large offer sheet for him next summer in restricted free agency.
