Knicks vs. Heat Prediction, Spread Pick & Odds for Game 6: Friday, 5/12

Author:
Mark Lammey
May 11, 2023 1:08 PM EDT

In what had become one of the more surprisingly lopsided series, the New York Knicks were able to avoid elimination on Wednesday night with their 112-103 Game 5 win over the Miami Heat. They still trail 3-2 in this series, so they’ll need to force a Game 7 come Friday night to keep their season alive.

With such a pivotal Game 6 on the horizon, our experts have a Knicks vs. Heat prediction with odds brought to you by FanDuel Sportsbook.

KNICKS VS. HEAT PREDICTION: Knicks +4.5 (-112 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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Knicks vs. Heat Prediction for Game 6 of the 2023 NBA Playoffs on Friday, 5/12

Following the Knicks’ Game 5 win at Madison Square Garden, the series shifts down to South Beach. Therefore, it’s no surprise that the Heat are the favorites in Friday’s Game 6. What is a bit more surprising is the point spread.

Miami is listed as a 4.5-point favorite, which is quite significant for a game that is expected to be so low-scoring. The total (over/under) is listed at just 209 points; for perspective, the Warriors vs. Lakers game later that night is listed with a total of 223.5 points. Therefore, our Knicks vs. Heat prediction is focused on New York keeping things close.

Knicks vs. Heat Spread and Pick Against the Spread

As mentioned, we’re not shocked that Miami is favored to close out the series, but behind Jalen Brunson, the Knicks have every opportunity to cover the 4.5-point spread at the very least. He proved why New York acquired him this offseason with an incredible 38 points, nine rebounds and seven assists in the Game 5 win.

The key to the Knicks extending this series isn’t solely on Brunson’s shoulders either. It’s their defense that has gotten them to this point, and it’s going to need to be what forces a Game 7 back at MSG. Specifically, they’ll need to slow Jimmy Butler as they did on Wednesday.

Butler still scored 19 points, but without 30+ from the superstar, the Heat are not nearly as threatening. When the Knicks traveled to South Beach in the regular season, they were able to escape with a 1-1 record, with the loss being when Butler put up 35 points. To demonstrate just how important the Knicks defense is, we don’t have to look very far back.

In the first round of the 2023 NBA playoffs, they rolled through the Cleveland Cavaliers with their defensive effort. Despite having a player similar to Butler - Donovan Mitchell - the Cavs scored over 100 points against the Knicks just once. If New York can shut down a player who scored 71 in a game this season, they can slow down Butler enough for a Game 6 win.

While they certainly have the chance to pull off the outright upset, our official Knicks vs. Heat prediction is on New York +4.5 with -112 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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Knicks vs. Heat Odds Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook for May 12th, 2023

To wrap up our Knicks vs. Heat prediction, we also have the latest lines and odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. New York +4.5 comes with a -112 price, so a $112 wager profits $100 if they lose by four points or fewer or pull off the upset. Meanwhile, Miami -4.5 has -108 odds, so a $108 bet profits $100 if they win by at least five points.

As for the total, or over/under, it’s listed at 209 points with -110 odds on both the over and the under. No matter which approach you take to wagering on Game 6, it only takes a $5 bet to guarantee yourself $150 in bonus bets when you join FanDuel here.

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