Pick Your Playoff Poison: New York Knicks' Potential 1st Round Matchups Ranked

The New York Knicks' first-round playoff opponent has yet to be determined, but some opponents are more attractive than others.

Author:
Geoff Magliocchetti
Apr 12, 2024

In this story:

New York Knicks

NBA Playoffs

Orlando Magic

Indiana Pacers

Philadelphia 76ers

Cleveland Cavaliers

Miami Heat

Jalen Brunson and the New York Knicks know the where. They've been the reasons why and how, and know what the situation is.

Now the only question is "who"?

The Knicks are on their way to the NBA playoffs, forming consecutive berths for the first time since 2011-13. Two games remain on the docket before the regular season wraps up on Sunday, which will see the formation of the playoff bracket. With a win on Friday against the Brooklyn Nets (7:30 p.m. ET, MSG), the Knicks will officially wrap up a top-three seed and can finish as high as second if they win their last two while Milwaukee loses its last couple.

Entering weekend action, the Knicks have five potential first-round foes within the mathematical realm of possibility ... some more attractive than others ...

(Matchup Probabilities determined by PlayoffStatus.com)

undefined — Feb 1, 2024; New York, New York, USA; New York Knicks guard Jalen Brunson (11) controls the ball

Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

5. Indiana Pacers

Season Series (IND won 2-1)

12/30/23: 140-126 IND
2/1/24: 109-105 NYK
2/10/24: 125-111 IND

The Knicks don't want to face the Pacers this postseason and an Obi Toppin revenge tour is the least of their concerns. Indiana is a perfect storm of sorts: they're a team armed with nothing to lose (playoff-bound for the first time in a full season since 2019) and figures to have a consequence-free gambit ahead considering franchis face Tyrese Haliburton is set to stay through 2029. Indiana also matches up drastically well with the Knicks thanks to their pace (no pun intended), which ranks second in the advanced rankings compiled by John Hollinger's methods (the Knicks are dead last in the same department). It's mostly out of the Knicks' hands, but if they can nab the second seed and avoid the Pacers until the second round, the metropolitan optimism could flow at a much better ... well, pace.

Matchup Probability: 26 percent

4. Orlando Magic

Season Series (ORL won 3-1)

12/29/23: 117-108 ORL
1/15/24: 98-94 ORL
2/14/24: 118-100 ORL
3/8/24: 98-74 NYK

One could easily cast off the Magic as a team that doesn't know how to win yet and look at them as a group where inclusion among the top six is a victory in its own right. But the Magic have had the Knicks' number by using one of their greatest strengths against them: rebounding. The Knicks have lost the battle of the boards on only 17 occasions this season, and Orlando is responsible for three of those happenings, all losses. Their rebounding numbers are rather pedestrian (Wendell Carter and franchise face Paolo Banchero are the only ones averaging more than six a game), but it's the prevention that really sticks in the Knicks' craw: Orlando allows the second fewest boards per game and the fewest second chances. Considering the way the Knicks have stemmed the tides of scarcity with their rebounding, that could be a deadly combination if they run into each other next week.

Matchup Probability: 18 percent

3. Cleveland Cavaliers

Season Series (NYK won 2-1)

10/31/23: 109-91 NYK
11/1/23: 95-89 CLE
3/3/24: 107-98 NYK

If the NBA was scripted, there'd be nothing better than to get a first-round sequel with the Cavaliers, especially considering the uncertain future of long-standing Knicks target Donovan Mitchell. Even with the changes Cleveland made last offseason in the name of trying to present a classier picture for Mitchell (i.e. Georges Niang, Max Strus), the Cavs have struggled to climb the conference mountain and hardly look any more suitable for a title than they were last time around, as the Knicks have played them well enough to the point where they didn't even need Brunson to earn a road victory (albeit one where Mitchell didn't play). So why are the Cavs so low on a list like this? The mathematics aren't exactly working in favor of a follow-up.

Matchup Probability: 7 percent

2. Miami Heat

Season Series (NYK won 2-1)

11/24/23: 100-98 NYK
1/27/24: 125-109 NYK
4/2/24: 109-99 MIA

Sure, there's a bit of personal pride involved here: the Heat ended last year's magical run and there'd be no better way for the Knicks to herald a new era than to flood South Beach. As this season's get-togethers proved, the Knicks are also better prepared to handle to Heat, having gotten everything they were hoping for when they expected Donte DiVincenzo to shore up their outside shooting, which proved to be their downfall when they did battle in last year's second round. The primary factor the Heat have on the Knicks is the fact they're getting healthier (though the Knicks undoubtedly did a better job navigating their own medical calamities) and their playoff experience, which certainly came in handy when they made a Finals run as the last team in 2023's postseason party.

Matchup Probability: 18 percent

1. Philadelphia 76ers

Season Series (NYK won 3-1)

1/5/24: 128-92 NYK
2/24/24: 110-96 NYK
3/10/24: 79-73 PHI
3/12/24: 106-79 NYK

The 76ers have had about three seasons' storylines packed into one, beginning with the early trade of James Harden and featuring the interruption of Joel Embiid's MVP defense, which seemed to have solid footing considering the fact that Phily became a Play-In team once he was medically sidelined. Philadelphia has found its groove upon Embiid's return and Tyrese Maxey's continued elite efforts, winning six in a row entering the final stanzas. But the fact of the matter is that the Knicks have had the Sixers' number even when Embiid was healthy. Combined with the fact that no other team is probably facing more pressure this postseason (except perhaps top-ranked Boston), it sets up a volatile situation prepared opponents can expose.

Matchup Probability: 32 percent