Two Areas Are Critical for Knicks as They Face Raptors in Back-to-Back Games

Some things need to change.

Here's where the Knicks must succeed if they hope to get the better of the Raptors in their back-to-back matchups. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

In their past two losses, the Knicks have struggled to match their opponents' physicality and impose their will on the game. Head coach Mike Brown noted that the Knicks have lost the possession battle in both contests.

This deficit shows up most glaringly on the defensive glass, where New York surrendered a lofty 28 total offensive rebounds across those two contests. Unfortunately, the schedule offers no relief: their upcoming two-game stretch against a physical Raptors team promises to put it to the test again, while offering another challenge.

Knicks must protect the glass

The Knicks are great at rebounding, but so are the Raptors | via NBA.com

Despite their recent slip-up, the Knicks have been the early league leader in controlling the glass on both ends of the floor. That makes allowing both Indiana and Cleveland to outrebound them particularly frustrating, especially since both sit near the bottom of the league on the boards, with the Pacers ranking dead last in generating second-chance possessions.

Toronto, by contrast, ranks second in the NBA in that exact category, trailing only New York. Taking care of the defensive glass is of the utmost importance this time around. Not only are second-chance opportunities inherently efficient, but Toronto’s half-court offense, much like New York’s early this season, heavily relies on those extra chances, scoring a sluggish 90.8 points per 100 half-court plays, good for 28th in the NBA.

Perimeter Players Crash. Percentiles compared to rest of NBA | Data via Cleaning the Glass

Unlike against Indiana, where their center, Ivica Zubac, swallowed up nine of the Pacers’ seventeen offensive boards, Toronto attacks the glass from the perimeter through committee. Scottie Barnes, RJ Barrett, Allen Graves, Ja'Kobe Walter, and Alijah Martin sit atop their offensive rebounding leaders. This perimeter group represents the crashers New York must account for and box out to deter extra possessions.

Transition push

The Toronto Raptors attack early and often | Data via Cleaning the Glass

Toronto pushes the pace as aggressively as any team in the NBA, and they do it with extreme efficiency. This identity is best illustrated when analyzing their transition offense off defensive rebounds. The Raptors don't want to walk the ball up and settle into what has been a sluggish half-court attack this season.

In transition, New York must sprint back while heavily prioritizing paint protection against a team shooting just 36% from deep (24th in the NBA). In fact, the Raptors currently feature only one player, Jamison Battle, who has attempted more than 25 threes while connecting on over 34% of them. Ultimately, controlling the tempo requires forcing the Raptors into a half-court grind, a game plan that starts on the offensive end by taking care of the basketball and generating high-percentage shots.

Given that New York’s own half-court attack has sputtered early on at 93.5 points per 100 plays (24th in the NBA), this two-game series offers an ideal opportunity to build real offensive rhythm while dictating the pace.

Summary

In Thursday's outing against the 76ers, the Raptors were held to just a 24.4% offensive rebound rate, their lowest mark of the season, while posting their second-lowest transition rate off rebounds at 20.0%. To no one's surprise, they lost the game. So, Toronto is also trying to reconnect with its core identity right now.

To snap this two-game skid, New York needs to get back to the basics, and nothing is more fundamental than winning the possession battle and sprinting back in transition. Both teams will test each other's resolve in these exact areas across what promises to be a physical, entertaining two-game series.

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