Luka Dončić, Austin Reaves Injuries Could Completely Undo Lakers’ March Progress Ahead of Playoffs

Fortunes can change in a flash in the NBA.

Just a few days ago, the Lakers were celebrating an absolutely dominant run through the month of March that saw them go 15–2. Luka Dončić set records en route to being named player of the month, and Los Angeles appeared to be firing on all cylinders at the perfect time.

Those good feelings already feel like a lifetime ago. The struggles started when Dončić left Thursday’s game against the Thunder early due to hamstring injury. On Friday, it was determined that the injury would keep him out for the rest of the regular season.

On Saturday, the Lakers got another bit of bad news, as guard Austin Reaves has a Grade 2 oblique injury per ESPN, which will force him to miss at least the rest of the regular season and could see him out for as long as four to six weeks.

The two injuries reshape the Lakers’ postseason fortunes in several ways. At the start of the week, Los Angeles had a claim to the third-best team in the West behind Oklahoma City and San Antonio. By the weekend, it’s starting to feel like they might not escape the first round.

The Lakers still have work to do before the start of the playoffs

Los Angeles Lakers head coach JJ Redick waits with forward Dalton Knecht. | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

In the gauntlet of the Western Conference, it was a huge accomplishment for the Lakers to hold on to the No. 3 seed heading into April. Their blistering month of March, led by a red-hot Luka and LeBron James’s embrace of playing any and every role asked of him, had Los Angeles holding at third place in the West and positioned to host a first-round playoff series.

At the time of Dončić’s injury, the Lakers are still third in the West, but are just a half-game up on the Nuggets and four games ahead of the Timberwolves for the No. 6 spot in the conference with five games left to play.

While it would take a lot for the Lakers to drop all the way down to sixth, with games left on the schedule against the Thunder, Warriors and Suns in their final stretch of the regular season, a collapse in certainly possible.

But even falling out of the No. 3 spot at all would leave L.A. with an uphill battle. As things stand, the Lakers were set to face Minnesota in the first round of the playoffs. While the T-Wolves have plenty of talent, the Lakers went 3–0 against them this season and could feel good about their chances with homecourt advantage in a seven-game series. Should they drop to fourth or fifth in the standings, it becomes more likely that they face either the Nuggets or Rockets to open the playoffs. While the Lakers went 2–1 against both Denver and Houston in the regular season, it feels like a safe bet that they’d be underdogs in a seven-game series against either side, even before their latest run of injuries.

The Lakers are definitely going to have to finish out the regular season shorthanded, but the problems get really bad if Dončić and Reaves remain out heading into the playoffs. Shutting both players down for the end of the regular season, even with critical games still to be played, makes total sense given the team’s goals of making a deep postseason run. But if either—or worse, both—players’ injuries keep them out into the start of the playoffs, which is in play, the Lakers will have far bigger problems than where they are seeded in the West.

The absence of Dončić and Reaves leaves a massive offensive hole for the Lakers

Los Angeles Lakers forward LeBron James moves the ball down the court. | Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

While it’s not clear how long the Lakers will be without either of their star guards, one thing is extremely clear—they’re going to need some other contributors to step up in their absence.

Dončić is averaging 33.5 points, 7.7 rebounds and 8.3 assists per game, and was on a pretty healthy streak of 40 points outings during his ridiculous run in March. Reaves, the Lakers’ second leading scorer, puts up 23.3 points per game. That’s more than 55 points of offense that’s going to need to be accounted for by the rest of the Lakers’ roster.

“From a strategic, tactical standpoint, we obviously are gonna have to play a little bit differently,” Redick said of Luka’s injury. “There’s enough that we have in that we can play through LeBron, play through Luke [Kennard], play through Rui [Hachimura], play through [Deandre Ayton]. And then we’ll just wait and see until Austin [Reaves] and [Marcus] Smart are back. But our mission hasn’t changed. We want to go get the three-seed, and we want to win a first-round series.”

A huge amount of that responsibility is likely to fall on the shoulders of Marcus Smart, who has plenty of postseason experience from his time with the Celtics, but Smart is also dealing with injuries, and has been sidelined for the past two weeks. He’ll need to get up to speed fast. Luke Kennard is also likely going to have to be a bigger piece of the puzzle for the Lakers.

Of course, beyond the role players who are set to become bigger pieces of the puzzle, a large amount of the offensive load will unsurprisingly fall back on the shoulders of James. It’s a bit of an ironic twist, as the Lakers had really found their stride through this back stretch of the season as LeBron deferred on offense to Luka and worked as the team’s second and sometimes third option. That was a winning formula with Dončić and Reaves on the court, but without them, James is going to have to call his own number again.

In another season, a month like the Lakers had in March might have given them enough buffer room in the West to rest not only their injured players, but their stars with heavy minutes on them like LeBron through the final week of the season. But this year, with so many good teams right behind them in the standings, it’s a luxury they likely cannot afford.

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