How Desmond Bane Could Be A Top-5 Shooting Guard Next Season

Desmond Bane posted one of his best seasons of his career last season with the Orlando Magic, especially as a scorer.

Averaging 20 PPG – 4 REB – 4 AST – 1 STL – 0.5 BLK, shooting 48-39-91, Bane saw career highs in FTM, FTA, FT%, FG%, FGA, 2PA, 2PM, PTS, BLK, TS%, and Win Shares, via Basketball Reference.

Bane recorded 8 of his Top-20 career scoring games in his first year in the blue and white pinstripes:

37 PTS @ DET
37 PTS vs CHI
37 PTS vs MIA
36 PTS @ LAC
35 PTS vs CLE
34 PTS @ PHO
32 PTS @ UTA
32 PTS vs TOR

As for his 2026 impact stats, he posted a +1.8 Estimated Plus Minus (EPM) and a +1.8 Offensive EPM, rating in the 87th percentile overall and the 89th percentile offensively.

Bane's defense was right on the neutral line of +0.0, neither positive or negative, rating in the 57th percentile; this is a case where the lack of a negative defensive impact actual equates to neutral impact for his position. Bane's Expected EPM for 2026 was rated slightly higher in the 92nd percentile offensively and 89th percentile overall.

The combination of Bane's two-way impact being elite offensively and merely not negative defensively places him in truly rare company; most players who bring offensive star impact hurt their team on the defensive end, while Bane does not. Him simply bringiing neutral defensive impact puts him head and shoulders above the offensive-only options at his position who can light it up on offense but can't always stay on the floor defensively come playoff time, and that doesn't even give Bane justice for his knack for making 50/50 plays that help his team win.

In the regular season, eating minutes and producing buckets can be had by either archetype; but, in the playoffs, the offensive stars who hold their own defensively, and the defensive specialists who can at least fill a productive role offensively, are the ones who stay on the floor and give their teams a fighting chance in the postseason.

I asked Desmond Bane how he likes the looks this Magic team generates when Bane initiates P&R with Paolo

“It’s honestly the first time I’ve ever been in a Pick-and-Roll situation with somebody that’s feared more than me, or equally as much as me.” - Desmond Bane

@HeatMagicOnSI pic.twitter.com/5LkY2mx1Jk
— Ryan Kaminski NBA (@beyondtheRK) October 23, 2025

Where Bane Should Actually Rank Among NBA Shooting Guards

Bane shoots — May 3, 2026; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Orlando Magic guard Desmond Bane (3) shoots on Detroit Pistons forward Tobias Harris (12) in the first half during game seven of the first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs at Little Caesars Arena. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Hoopshype Ranked the Top-27 Shooting Guards heading into the 2027 NBA Season.

Here are their Top-10 SGs with their Actual EPM impact ratings and percentiles from 2025-26:

1. Anthony Edwards (+3.1 EPM, 94th)
2. Donovan Mitchell (+5.0 EPM, 98th)
3. Devin Booker (+2.5 EPM, 91st)
4. Amen Thompson (+2.7 EPM, 92nd)
5. Austin Reaves (+3.1 EPM, 94th)
6. Stephon Castle (+2.8 EPM, 93rd)
7. Kon Knueppel (+2.6 EPM, 92nd)
8. VJ Edgecombe (+0.4 EPM, 73rd)
9. Derrick White (+4.4 EPM, 97th)
10. Tyler Herro (+0.9 EPM, 78th)
11. Desmond Bane (+1.8 EPM, 87th)

https://t.co/ggfMRv4mT9’s top 10 SGs in the NBA:

1. Anthony Edwards
2. Donovan Mitchell
3. Devin Booker
4. Amen Thompson
5. Austin Reaves
6. Stephon Castle
7. Kon Knueppel
8. VJ Edgecombe
9. Derrick White
10. Tyler Herro pic.twitter.com/9tuCuMmDWy
— NBACentral (@TheDunkCentral) August 29, 2026

Bane's +1.8 EPM and 87th percentile ranks him Top-15 via Actual EPM for his position and around the same in Expected EPM; this puts Bane's overall impact ahead of VJ Edgecombe and Tyler Herro, the two glaring examples Bane should be ranked ahead of on Hoopshype's list.

While Herro added +2.0 Offensive EPM impact, he hurt his team with negative -1.1 Defensive EPM, bringing his overall Actual EPM to +0.9, in the 78th percentile. In the regulars season, Herro can get buckets with the best of them; in the playoffs, Bane provides more stability with two-way impact.

While Edgecombe posted positive impact on both ends, (+0.2 O-EPM, +0.1 D-EPM) it was closer to neutral impact overall at +0.4 EPM, rating in just the 73rd percentile. While he rates slightly higher than Bane as a defender, Edgecombe's hustling 3&D playstyle and exciting Rookie athleticism gives VJ a realistically potential to develop into a high-end two-way starter one day; but, that is something Bane has already achieved, heading into Year 7.

Bane rates higher in offensive impact than Stephon Castle, Amen Thompson, and Edgecombe.

I asked Paolo Banchero how it feels to have Desmond Bane as a relief valve on offense now, especially in games where Franz is out compared to seasons prior

“He’s more than just a shooter… he’s a real scorer, just a ball player.

He hit 6 threes tonight, but he had 37 PTS… pic.twitter.com/iUN0QNGYoC
— Ryan Kaminski NBA (@beyondtheRK) December 10, 2025

One could argue that Castle, Austin Reaves, and even Kon Knueppel had relatively similar seasons in impact last season and project to be similarly impactful next season, though any could always make another leap.

Bane's better at not turning the ball over than all three by the numbers; he ranks ahead of Knueppel in Darko's DPM and about the same as Reaves in 3-Year RAPM; he ranks far ahead of Castle in 3-Year RAPM, O-RAPM, and relative True Shooting Percentage.

Bane's defensive specialty relies on his hustle plays, diving for the 50/50 loose balls that help win games on the margins; this separates him from similarly impactful players; Bane rates in the 82nd percentile recovering loose balls, far ahead of Reaves, Knueppel, and Castle.

His shot blocking also separates him from these three guards, rating in the 58th percentile in Blocks, relatively high for a guard known for his 3pt shooting; Bane is also contesting a lot of shots effectively, where opponents shoot 3.2% worse on Bane's contests, rating in the 93rd percentile.

With improved shot selection from Orlando's system under new head coach Sean Sweeney, Bane could see even higher scoring and shooting efficiency next year simply from better shot locations, more threes created by his gravity, and more open looks off the downhill gravity of Orlando's big wings Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, as long as this team can stay healthy.

Bane's combination of elite offensive impact, neutral defensive impact, elite shooting gravity, elite scoring efficiency, hustle play instincts, and overall star-level two-way impact on the game not only deserves a Top-10 ranking ahead of Herro and Edgecombe, there's a legitimate case for Desmond Bane to rank in the realm or ahead of Reaves, Thompson, Castle, and Knueppel as of today based on last season's production while projecting into next season.

Finding Bane a higher volume of easier looks from deep is the pathway to him bringing Top-5 Shooting Guard impact. When it comes to the volume of three-pointers Bane should be launching for Orlando next season, Lindsey Lohan said it best in Mean Girls, "the limit does not exist."

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