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How Paolo's Surging Magic Hold Back the Streaking Hawks

Orlando visits Atlanta in pivotal playoff race south east division matchup
Nov 4, 2025; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Orlando Magic forward Paolo Banchero (5) is defended by Atlanta Hawks guard Nickeil Alexander-Walker (7) and forward Jalen Johnson (1) in the second quarter at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images
Nov 4, 2025; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Orlando Magic forward Paolo Banchero (5) is defended by Atlanta Hawks guard Nickeil Alexander-Walker (7) and forward Jalen Johnson (1) in the second quarter at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Filtering back to January 9th, 2026, the day the Atlanta Hawks traded former franchise cornerstone Trae Young for some role players, two trends reveals themselves:

The Hawks (and the Orlando Magic) have been playing at a Top-12 pace with a Top-12 rated defense ever since that date, with Atlanta carving out an 18-10 record to Orlando's 17-11 tally.

Both teams are surging as Atlanta looks for its 10th-straight win while Orlando hunts its 8th straight; Orlando has climbed up to 5th in the East while Atlanta lurks below swimming in play-in waters at 9th.

Every win at this point in the season becomes more important than the last, especially for two division foes fighting for tie-breakers that often determine playoff positioning.

How can the Magic use their own momentum to slow down the soaring Hawks?

3 Keys for a Magic Win

1. Give Jalen Johnson the Superstar treatment on defense

Jalen Johnson pass
Mar 14, 2026; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Hawks forward Jalen Johnson (1) passes the ball against the Milwaukee Bucks in the third quarter at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

In his first All-Star season, Jalen Johnson has blossomed from two-way potential to flat out versatile production on both ends of the floor.

A high feel playmaker who forces turnovers on one end and goes coast to coast on the other, who can beat you in a variety of ways as a lead decision maker offensive engine for his team, Johnson is now averaging 23 PPG - 10 REB - 8 AST / 3 TO shooting 50-35-78 on the season.

A complete scorer and creator who will be hard to stifle on his own and should be respected with superstar treatment – the Magic must contain Johnson's creation efforts without fouling or doubling, make him beat you with self-creation, his off the dribble handle, force him into tough midrange pull-up jumpers, or encourage him to swing the ball to teammates who are not left wide open.

Banchero's versatile defense in this recent stretch will provide a strong counter option for Orlando; who comes out ahead in this star-studded individual matchup between Jalen Johnson and Paolo Banchero at the four when it comes to individual scoring, foul-drawing, and team shot creation will be a key factor in this game, especially between starting units.

2. Anticipate Steals to Force Turnovers, Attack Paint to Draw Fouls

Jett defends Dyson
Nov 4, 2025; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Hawks guard Dyson Daniels (5) passes around Orlando Magic guard Jett Howard (13) in the fourth quarter at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Since that Jan 9th date, the Magic have the 12th-rated defense and 17th-rated offense while the Hawks have the 7th-rated defense and 15th-rated offense.

Orlando's defense has a slight edge in rebounding, but otherwise will need to rely on its turnover-forcing deflectors to build a margin in points off turnovers.

The Magic's offense doesn't have many advantages, except for one – Orlando draws the 3rd-most fouls while Atlanta is 12th-best at defending without fouling.

Orlando attacking the paint, forcing Jalen Johnson into more actions to put him in early foul trouble, drawing as many free throws as possible could be a vital factor to win on the margins in a game where so few clear advantages exist in the four factors stats.

3. Tristan da Sparkplug

da Silva drive
Mar 14, 2026; Miami, Florida, USA; Orlando Magic forward Tristan da Silva (23) drives to the basket as Miami Heat center Bam Adebayo (13) and center Kel'el Ware (7) defend during the first half at Kaseya Center. Mandatory Credit: Jim Rassol-Imagn Images | Jim Rassol-Imagn Images

Tristan da Silva has been everything this Magic team has needed in the absence of forwards Franz Wagner and Anthony Black.

The Magic swingman has stepped up when called upon throughout the season, asked to juggle different roles and wear different hats by the night, which can make it hard to find a rhythm in such an ever-changing setting.

And yet, da Silva has stayed patiently working in the gym, even called one of the hardest workers on the team by Magic Center Wendell Carter Jr..

The results speak for themselves; a Silva's sparkplug scalability has stepped in and shown out in a pinch, only getting better as the season goes on as the game slows down:

averaging 15 PPG - 6 REB - 3 AST (1.3 TO) - 2 STL
shooting 67% eFG% with a 57-46-89 line on 6 2PA, 5 3PA, 1 FTA per game

Orlando must continue to ride da Silva's hot hand by increasing his touches, usage, and shots until the efficiency bubble bursts and also be sure to maintain some semblance of this role for him even win the frontcourt gets more crowded.

Like Anthony Black's leap for this team, Tristan da Silva's breakout this season has been too magical to put the genie back in the bottle.

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Ryan Kaminski
RYAN KAMINSKI

Ryan is a basketball scout data analyst who has been covering the Orlando Magic, NBA, and NBA Draft with a focus on roster building strategy, data analytics, film breakdowns, and player development since 2017. He is credentialed media for the Orlando Magic along with top high schools in Central Florida where he scouts talent in marquee matchups at Montverde Academy, IMG Academy, Oak Ridge, and the NBPA Top-100 Camp. He generates basketball data visualizations, formerly with The BBall Index. He has two B.A.s from Florida State University in Business Management and Business Marketing. Twitter/YouTube/Substack: @BeyondTheRK