The Magic Insider

Keep rolling the Banchero bowling ball down Wizards lane

The 3 keys to a Magic victory over Washington
Nov 1, 2025; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; Orlando Magic forward Paolo Banchero (5) leaps to pass the ball as Washington Wizards guard Bilal Coulibaly (0) defends in the first half at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images
Nov 1, 2025; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; Orlando Magic forward Paolo Banchero (5) leaps to pass the ball as Washington Wizards guard Bilal Coulibaly (0) defends in the first half at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images | Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

Washington is fresh off giving up 141 points to Anthony Edwards and the Timberwolves.

Orlando just scored 135 points on Pascal Siakam and the Pacers.

The Wizards will be missing Kyshawn George, Corey Kispert, and Cam Whitmore.

The Magic will be without the Wagner bros and likely Jalen Suggs as well.

What are the Magic keys to victory in Washington?

3 Keys to a Magic Win

1. Contain CJ McCollum, Alex Sarr, Tre Johnson as scorers

Sarr holds ball
Jan 2, 2026; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; Washington Wizards center Alex Sarr (20) grabs the ball during the second half against the Brooklyn Nets at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Kucin Jr.-Imagn Images | Daniel Kucin Jr.-Imagn Images

The Wizards will likely start its five best players who are all capable scorers, creators, and playfinishers in their role.

Limiting CJ McCollum and Tre Johnson as scorers, along with deterring Alex Sarr away from the rim as a play-finisher, should be the primary objective for Orlando's defense.

Khris Middleton is a proven shooter and scorer in his own right, and Bilal Coulibaly can get downhill and playmake, so taking these options away from Washington's offense will force them to do secondary actions instead.

Forcing Coulibaly, Sarr, and even Middleton this year to beat you as perimeter shooters is probably a better choice than letting CJ or Tre heat up, containing the Wizards to pull-up maestro guards should take priority.

2. Safe decisionmaking, securing rebounds, and drawing fouls on drives creates easy opportunity to win on margins

Black drives
Jan 4, 2026; Orlando, Florida, USA; Orlando Magic guard Anthony Black (0) drives to the basket around Indiana Pacers guard Aaron Nesmith (23) during the first quarter at Kia Center. Mandatory Credit: Mike Watters-Imagn Images | Mike Watters-Imagn Images

Checking for four factor advantages...

Orlando rates 15th in point differential, 17th in offense, 12th in defense.

Washington rates 30th in point differential, 27th in offense, 29th in defense.

Washington is ranked bottom-ten in all four offensive four factors. Orlando has the edge in all four areas, especially on the defensive glass where they should look to take advantage of their strength as a team.

Washington's defense is not much better, rating average at shooting efficiency and defending without failing, and rating dead last in both forcing turnovers and securing defensive rebounds.

Orlando's offensive ratings of 4th at not turning the ball over, 14th at offensive rebounds, and 2nd at drawing fouls should all be opportunities to take advantage of the team's strengths against the Wizards' weaknesses.

Drive hard to the rack, win the rebounding battle, don't make risky passes.

3. Clear the lane for the Banchero bowling ball

Paolo walks
Jan 4, 2026; Orlando, Florida, USA; Orlando Magic forward Paolo Banchero (5) during the second half against the Indiana Pacers at Kia Center. Mandatory Credit: Mike Watters-Imagn Images | Mike Watters-Imagn Images

Don't all look at once, but Paolo Banchero has put together a strong 4-game stretch after taking a few weeks to fully recover from his groin injury.

28 points, 12 rebounds, 5 assists, 1 steal in a W vs Indiana
31 points, 6 rebounds, 6 assists, 2 steals, 1 block in a L @ Chicago
29 points, 10 rebounds, 4 assists, 3 blocks, 1 steal in a W @ Indiana
23 points, 15 rebounds, 10 assists, 1 blocks in a L @ Toronto

Banchero's bouncy explosiveness looks closer to his normal self, a positive sign for Magic fans.

Paolo utilizes that bounce in his drives, jumpers, jump-passes, and a lot of the special aspects of his game; Banchero being at full strength takes his game to another level.

With the Wizards not posing much threat of stopping Banchero from barrelling through the paint as often as he likes, Paolo should start rolling to the rim early and often until the defense can figure out how to stop him.


Published
Ryan Kaminski
RYAN KAMINSKI

Ryan is a basketball scout data analyst who has been covering the Orlando Magic, NBA, and NBA Draft with a focus on roster building strategy, data analytics, film breakdowns, and player development since 2017. He is credentialed media for the Orlando Magic along with top high schools in Central Florida where he scouts talent in marquee matchups at Montverde Academy, IMG Academy, Oak Ridge, and the NBPA Top-100 Camp. He generates basketball data visualizations, formerly with The BBall Index. He has two B.A.s from Florida State University in Business Management and Business Marketing. Twitter/YouTube/Substack: @BeyondTheRK