Dallas Mavericks Big Winner of New NBA Draft Lottery Reform for 2027

The NBA severely overreacted to the tanking this year for a legendary draft class, as they have passed a new lottery rule known as "3-2-1." Essentially, the three worst teams each year have worse odds of winning the lottery, while the remaining 13 teams in the lottery (it has not been expanded to 16 teams) have flat odds.

The three worst teams will have two lottery balls each, as will the 9/10 seeds of each conference. The losers of the 7/8 game of the Play-In Tournament will get one lottery ball each. The remaining teams that miss the playoffs will receive three lottery balls.

There are also some other changes. The second round is now in reverse lottery order, meaning whoever lands the first overall pick will have the 46th overall pick (if they own the pick). Teams cannot land the first overall pick in back-to-back years or land in the top five in three straight years. This even applies if a team owns a pick from another bad team. For example, the San Antonio Spurs had two lottery picks last year. Under this new format, the highest they would've been able to pick last year would've been 6th, as they had picked in the top five for the two years before that, and that applies to the pick they acquired from the Atlanta Hawks.

This makes it much harder for teams to build through the draft. Small market teams can't rely on free agency at all, and free agency is basically dead now because of the new tax aprons, but even if a team like the New Orleans Pelicans were to make a big trade, a big star is more likely to leave them. The draft has always been the best way for a bad team to improve, but a team that finishes with the third-worst record will now have a 25% chance of picking 12th.

Mar 16, 2026; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; Dallas Mavericks forward Cooper Flagg (32) shares a moment with forward P.J. Washington (25) against the New Orleans Pelicans during the first half at Smoothie King Center. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-Imagn Images | Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

How Does This Help the Dallas Mavericks?

This could really help the Dallas Mavericks for the 2027 NBA Draft. They owe a top-two protected pick to the Charlotte Hornets because of the P.J. Washington trade. If we use this year's format as an example, the Mavericks, who finished with the 8th-best lottery odds, would've had a 13.7% chance of landing in the top 2 to keep their pick. Under the new format, they would have a 16.1% chance of keeping the pick.

The real advantage for the Mavs is that they're probably going to be a better team next year. Kyrie Irving should be back after missing the entire 2025-26 season as he recovered from a torn ACL. Other players should be healthier. Cooper Flagg will be going into his second season, and they'll add another lottery pick alongside him.

Dallas likely projects to be a Play-In team next season. Let's say they bow out in the 9/10 game, that would give them a 9.4% chance of landing in the top 2. In the previous format, it would've been anywhere between 4.4% and 1.1%. That's a big swing for a team likely trying to compete next year.

The 2027 Draft isn't supposed to be nearly as talented or as deep as 2026, but the Mavericks don't control any of their picks until 2031. If they could luck out and get their pick back next year, they could either add another young player or trade it for a better, ready-made player.

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